This Thanksgiving, Let's Have Some Pigeon (Picks)

It’s Thanksgiving! Time for FOOD, FAMILY, FOOTBALL, and not necessarily in that order.

In my house, we will be having the first annual Yarris Family Football Classic, followed by the food. But for me, there is nothing that feels more like HOME than sitting on the couch with my second plate of food, in front of the football game, surrounded by family.

Here’s hoping you find your own sense of home this holiday season. Let me also say, I am eternally thankful to each of you who have subscribed to Football Behavior this year.

After years of building Pro Football Network, despite all of the great things I accomplished there with my amazing team, I am so grateful to be able to finally share with you my philosophy of football analysis and my insights gleaned form years of working directly with NFL players and coaches, uninhibited. That was my starting goal at PFN, and only now do I feel like I am truly getting that opportunity and it is all because of YOU.

So, from my family to yours, Thank You.

And now, enough with all the sap. Let’s line it up!

What’s In here?

• Week 11 Betting Recap

• Thanksgiving Predictions

• Black Friday Prediction

• QB Props For All Four Games (Ungated, as a way of saying thank you)

Week 11 Betting Recap

Record

• 20-13 (60.6% Hit Percentage)

Return On Investment

• +49.68%

Profit

• +13.9 units

November MTD

REMINDER: All of our bets are publicly viewable on Pikkit, which is a FREE to use bet tracking app. While Pigeon Pick subscribers have our bets for every game for every week emailed to them at 9 am est, once the games kick off, every bet is posted on Pikkit for tracking purposes. That’s where you’ll find all of the receipts for these stats.

Using our code FBX by clicking the link above will give you a chance to earn cash just for signing up for the free app.

Thanksgiving Day Predictions

Packers vs. Lions

This game is all about determining whether or not the Packers offense can keep pace with the Lions. It will be on their defense to slow down Detroit enough for the offense to keep pace.

• Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving Prediction

Commanders vs. Cowboys

This game is about figuring out the true nature of the Cowboys defensive behavior. Our Behavior analysis uncovered some disturbing trends for them, and if the offense can’t possess the bal long enough, Washington may have the chance to steal this one.

• Commanders vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Prediction

49ers vs. Seahawks

This game could be the biggest discrepancy of the day. Seattle’s behavior doesn't match its record, though it might after Thursday. The 49ers are healthy, and that means they’re dominant.

• 49ers vs. Seahawks Thanksgiving Prediction

Note: All three games are profiled in the same article, so all three links lead to the same place, but in case you care about one game more than the others, just scroll to the game you care most about.

Black Friday Prediction

The Dolphins offense has been in struggle city when it faces a team with a winning record, or a defense in the top half of the league in Score Prevention Behavior Rate.

The Jets don’t have a winning record, but they do have the best defense in football…👀

• Dolphins vs. Jets Black Friday Prediction

Holiday Week QB Prop Projections (Ungated)

We’ve undated this as a special thanks to every one of our subscribers. If this is something you want to have access to, it’s not too late to sign up. It’s super easy, and easy to unsubscribe as well, with monthly and annual options.

QB Behavior Projections, backed by behavior science 🧬

Jordan Love

Projected Passing yards

• 245 Passing Yards

Jared Goff

Projected Passing Yards

• 262 Passing Yards

Sam Howell

Projected Passing Yards

• 247 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott

Projected Passing Yards

• 286 Passing Yards

Geno Smith

Projected Passing Yards

• 249 Passing Yards

Brock Purdy

Projected Passing Yards

• 277 Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa

Projected Passing Yards

• 224 Passing Yards

Tim Boyle

Projected Passing Yards

• STAY AWAY

Bets Placed

• Love OVER 232.5 AND Goff OVER 253.5 (+245)

• Howell UNDER 254.5 AND Prescott OVER 278.5 (+260)

• Tagovailoa UNDER 250.5 AND Purdy OVER 251.5 (+218)

Underdog Fantasy Play

We have an offer for those have not yet signed up for Underdog. If you want to get in on the action with this play (Pays 20x if you hit all 5), click the link below for deposit match up $100 on your first deposit from Underdog, just for signing up.

Underdog Fantasy $100 Despot Match

• Prescott HIGHER 278.5

• Goff HIGHER 253.5

• Howell LOWER 257.5

• Love HIGHER 232.5

• Tagovailoa LOWER 248.5