Why The Texans Can Beat The Ravens

If You’re Short On Time…

• Texans Better Than People Assumed

  • Ranked 8th in NFL Margin For Error

• Ravens Defense Benefits From Extreme Outliers

  • Like the Browns and Cowboys, the Ravens defense average rankings is heavily influenced by extreme outliers

• Full NFL Margin For Error Rankings

• We Bet…

  • Texans +9.5 (-110)

  • Texans Alt Spread +6.5 (+140)

  • Full-Game Analytics at the bottom for Premium Subscribers

Texans Better Than Many Assume

The Baltimore Ravens are among the Super Bowl favorites this year, and for good reason. In our NFL Margin For Error Rankings they rank second, behind only the San Francisco 49ers.

On the other sideline, the Houston Texans are coming off an upset victory over the Cleveland Browns. While Baltimore secured the AFC’s number 1 seed weeks in advance, the Texans made the playoffs on the last day of the season with a win and Jacksonville Jaguars loss.

However, the win over Cleveland should not be too unexpected. By the time the season ended, the Texans were ranked 8th in the entire league for Margin For Error score. Cleveland was ranked 18th.

So the question is, if the Houston was ranked so high, why did it take a late season win to make the postseason? Shouldn't their score have meant they were a clear contender?

Well, no.

Performance behavior is an ever evolving thing. Remember, Houston entered the season with a brand new coaching staff and rookie playing Quarterback. The team needed to adapt to significant environmental change.

It takes time to shape and condition the correct behaviors that will help the team thrive in the new conditions. Technique, scheme knowledge, etc. And adapt Houston did.

With CJ Stroud at quarterback, the Texans saw quantifiable growth in their scoring behavior week to week. They saw 9% growth specifically throughout the 2023 season, including data from last week’s Wildcard game.

They experienced the ups and downs you’d expect from any young team growing into a new environment. That growth hasn’t been linear. But behavioral growth isn’t linear. It’s exponential. So as we navigate the ups and downs, what we look for is that the lows aren’t as low, and that they rebound from them.

We got that.

In the chart above the black line shows us week to week 9% growth in their scoring behavior throughout the season. The red arrows show us three low points. Each successive low point was higher than the preceding one. The green arrows how us that those low points were nearly immediately followed by high point and sustained success.

As we saw last week vs. the Browns, if CJ Stroud is healthy, and growing, he is as impressive a young quarterback as we have in the league. When you have a quarterback, you have a chance against anyone.

The Ravens Defense is Buoyed by Outliers

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Ravens defense is really good. Among the best units in the league. This is not debatable.

However…

…they may not be as good as their averages would suggest. NFL media too often will submit and discuss rankings predicated on averages like points per game or EPA. The problem with that is that they are highly influenced by outliers.

While having more elite games than defenses like the Browns or Cowboys, who were exposed in the opening round of the playoffs, they still had many more games that were NOT extreme outliers.

10 of their 17 games allowed a score prevention behavior rate of 0.65 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, or more.

They only played 5 games against a team who finished ranked in the top 10 for scoring behavior rate (points per minute of possession time).

1. Houston (8th) Week 1 : Throw this game out. First week of the season, neither team is who they would eventually become.

2. Detroit (3rd) Week 7: Domination. However, played before the Lions bye week, after which, they saw a 43% increase in their scoring behavior rate.

3. Los Angeles Rams (5th): Week 14: Allowed 31 points and 0.9 points per minute of possession time, their worst performance of the Season.

4. San Francisco (2nd) Week 16: This was an outlier performance for the 49ers offense and the Ravens defense.

   1. Only game this season the 49ers offense had more than 3 turnovers in a single game (5).

   2. Ravens defense still gave up 0.7 points per minute to the 49ers offense

5. Miami (7th): As we established in Margin For Error rankings, Miami’s average was heavily influenced by early season averages. Their average over their final 11 games would have ranked them 21st overall.

So not only did the Ravens have a relatively easy schedule of offenses that they faced, the times they faced a top one, only one time did it not occur with some type of outlier event, or did they face them at top form.

That was the Rams in Week 14, which was their worst performance of the season. Houston is now at top form and finished the year as a top 10 offense. For all of the focus on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense, it is THIS matchup that could be the one that determines this game.

Lamar Jackson Hasn’t Played

This analysis is a bit more subjective, however still rooted in behavior science. We talk ad nauseam about the importance of environment on behavior.

Entering Week 18 we shared a quote from Kyle Shanahan explaining the shakeup resting starters causes, not just for the game, but for the weeks of practice in between.

It has been 19 days since Lamar Jackson played in an NFL game. That is almost three weeks. It is entirely possible that the rest was good for him and there will be no disruption to their momentum.

However…

…it is also entirely possible that their is some disruption. The Ravens were rising 12% growth momentum in their scoring behavior into Week 18. That has been put on pause for 19 days.

The year is 2020. The Ravens have a league leading defense, the AFC’s number 1 seed. Lamar Jackson is an MVP favorite.

They lost in their first playoff game to the last seeded Titans. They came out extremely rusty, ad despite gaudy box score stats, had three crucial turnovers and scored just 12 points. The only thing that matters in an NFL game.

The year is 2024. The Ravens have a league leading defense, the AFC’s number 1 seed. Lamar Jackson is an MVP favorite.

What happens next will decide their season. We predict they’ll win. But…

Full Game Analytics

Texans vs Ravens

Score Projection: Geometric Means

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