Behavior Analysis

• Baseline Projection (our model):

  • Total: ~36 points (low-to-mid 30s cluster)

  • Game shape: Possession near even, defenses drive the story, Seahawks get just enough separation on offensive efficiency.

  1. Behavioral Matchup Snapshot

  Scoring Behavior (SBx & SPBx)

  Seahawks offense (SBx – points scored per minute of possession)

  • Level: 0.877 (strong; above our 0.8 “really good” line)

  • Celeration: x1.03 (modest acceleration – getting a bit better over time)

  • Bounce: x2.3 (volatile but still under our “very wild” zone)

  This is a top-tier scoring profile: good now, gently trending up, not out-of-control noisy.

  Patriots offense (SBx)

  • Level: 0.75 (solid but a tier below Seattle)

  • Celeration: x1.01 (basically flat – stable scoring behavior)

  • Bounce: x2.6 (more volatile than we’d like)

  Behaviorally, New England’s offense is “good enough,” but it doesn’t live in the same scoring neighborhood as Seattle’s and is more boom/bust week-to-week.

  Seahawks defense (SPBx – points allowed per defensive minute)

  • Level: 0.496 (excellent; well under our 0.6 “good” threshold)

  • Celeration: ÷1.11 ≈ 0.90x (clear deceleration – getting stingier over time)

  • Bounce: x3.5 (extremely high volatility)

  This is the wild card of the game: a potentially elite defense that also carries a huge spread of outcomes. When it’s on, it looks like a championship unit. When it’s off, it can turn any game into chaos.

  Patriots defense (SPBx)

  • Level: 0.571 (good; inside our “really good” band)

  • Celeration: ÷1.12 ≈ 0.89x (also improving)

  • Bounce: x2.3 (manageable volatility)

  New England’s defense is quietly very strong and trending better, with less volatility than Seattle’s. On a standard celeration chart, that New Season 2025 line is sloping down nicely with a tighter scatter.

  Possession Behavior

  (We convert the Level into minutes with 1 ÷ Level.)

  Patriots Ball Possession (offense)

  • Level: 0.0319 → ≈31.3 minutes of possession

  • Celeration: ≈0.99x (slightly faster over time)

  • Bounce: x1.4 (very stable)

  Patriots Ball Possession Prevention (defense)

  • Level: 0.0353 → ≈28.3 minutes allowed

  • Celeration: ~1.00x (flat)

  • Bounce: x1.4 (stable)

  ➡️ Behavioral story: New England wins the possession battle by a couple of minutes in an average game and does it very consistently.

  Seahawks Ball Possession (offense)

  • Level: 0.0333 → ≈30.0 minutes of possession

  • Celeration: ≈0.95x (trending toward slightly less time – faster games)

  • Bounce: x1.5 (still steady)

  Seahawks Ball Possession Prevention (defense)

  • Level: 0.0339 → ≈29.5 minutes allowed

  • Celeration: x1.04 (on the field a bit more over time)

  • Bounce: x1.6 (moderate volatility)

  ➡️ Behavioral story: Seattle doesn’t really dominate time of possession.
  In this matchup, the geometric mean of the TOP behaviors puts us around:

  • Seahawks offense: ≈29 minutes

  • Patriots offense: ≈30 minutes

  So the clock edge leans Patriots, but scoring efficiency leans Seahawks.

  2. Pathways to Outcomes

  Our “Chalk” Script – The 20–16 Seahawks Win

  On our standard celeration charts, the intersection of:

  • Seahawks SBx (high, slightly accelerating)

  • Patriots SPBx (good, improving)

  • Patriots SBx (solid)

  • Seahawks SPBx (better by level, but hugely bouncy)

  …lands us in a tight band of games where:

  • Seattle lives in the 18–23 point range most often.

  • New England clusters around 14–20.

  Pick the most football-realistic discrete outcome in that band, and 20–16 Seahawks is an extremely clean representation:

  • Seahawks: capitalize on a couple of red-zone trips + one explosive scoring sequence.

  • Patriots: sustain drives (small TOP edge) but settle for FGs more often.

  Range of Outcomes (using bounce + NFL sanity)

  Using our base projections plus the bounce ranges on both sides of the ball, we can sketch a behavioral 90% window.

  Approximate per-team bands from the charts:

  • Seahawks points: ~14 to 31

  • Patriots points: ~11 to 32

  From there:

  1) Highest-Scoring Realistic Outcome

  This is where both offenses hit the high side of their SBx bounce and both defenses hit the messy side of their SPBx bounce, especially with Seattle’s x3.5 volatility:

  Why Pats in the highest-total script?

  • This version of the game almost requires a Seahawks defensive meltdown, and the bounce on that unit supports it.

  • In a true shootout, New England’s possession edge + their own SBx upside (bounce x2.6) gives them a credible path to slightly outpace Seattle.

  Think of it as: top 10% “everything’s on fire” game.

  2) Lowest-Scoring Realistic Outcome

  Now we flip everything: both offenses at the low end of SBx, both defenses at the tight, efficient end of SPBx, and the possession battle still grinding:

  Why Seahawks?

  • Even at low output, the underlying SBx / SPBx efficiencies still lean Seattle.

  • That 0.877 SBx vs 0.75 SBx, plus comparable or better defensive SPBx, means in a slog, Seattle is still slightly more likely to be the team that finds the one touchdown.

  This is the “all field position, punters win MVP votes” universe.

  3) Biggest Blowout (within the behavioral band)

  To get a true blowout we need:

  • Seahawks offense near its SBx ceiling, and

  • Patriots offense near its SBx floor,

  • With Seattle’s defense landing on its good side and New England’s defense on its bad side.

  That gives us something like:

  The symmetric outcome (Pats 31, Seahawks 14) is behaviorally possible but less likely, because it requires:

  • Seattle’s offense at the bottom of its range, and

  • Seattle’s defense playing to its best self (despite that x3.5 bounce).

  So our “largest plausible blowout” inside the 90% band favors Seattle.

  Patriots’ Pathway to Victory

  What has to happen for New England to lift the Lombardi?

  1. Lean into the possession edge.

     • Play a 31–32 minute TOP game, not a 28-minute one.

     • Methodical drives, 3rd-down conversion behavior at the top of their SBx bounce, and keeping Seattle’s offense cold on the sideline.

  2. Catch Seattle’s defense on a “bad-bounce” day.

     • SPBx bounce of x3.5 is huge. If the Seahawks defense drifts toward the top of that band (more points per minute allowed), New England’s fairly stable SBx can turn into 21–24 points.

  3. Keep the Seahawks offense near the low side of its band.

     • Pats SPBx profile (0.571, decelerating, x2.3 bounce) supports games where they hold good offenses to the teens.

     • That’s the Pats “brand” outcome: Pats 20, Seahawks 17 or something in that family.

  4. Red-zone skew toward FGs, not TDs, for Seattle.

     • Our model is built on points-per-minute, not red-zone conversion specifically, but for the Pats to win, we’d expect:

       • 2–3 stalled Seahawks drives inside the 30,

       • A special teams or field-position win,

       • The offense just good enough to finish drives at the other end.

  Behavioral Upset Script:

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Seahawks vs. Patriots

• Moneyline: Seahawks -230, Patriots +191

• Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-112), Patriots +4.5 (-108)

• Total: 45.5 (-110 / -110)

• Team Totals:

  • Seahawks 25.5 (-114 / -117)

  • Patriots 20.5 (-104 / -129)

• FGs: O/U 3.5 (-105 / -120)

• Winning Margin:

  • Seahawks by <13: +115

  • Seahawks by 1–6: +270

Our base projection: Seahawks 20, Patriots 16 (36 total) with most mass in the low-40s and below.

Moneyline

• Seahawks -230

• Patriots +191

📌 Verdict: PASS (lean Seahawks in parlays only)

Behaviorally, Seattle is the rightful favorite:

• Better SBx level,

• Slightly better SPBx level and trend,

• Only real chaos input is their own defensive bounce.

But -230 assumes a pretty robust win probability. Given:

• How good the Patriots defense looks on the chart, and

• How plausible the “Pats 20–17” upset script is,

we’d rather use the spread to express that edge than lay -230 or toss a full-unit dart at +191.

Spread

• Seahawks -4.5 (-112)

• Patriots +4.5 (-108)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Patriots +4.5

• Model margin: Seahawks by ~2–4 points (our 20–16 pick fits this).

• Defenses are the strength of both teams.

• Patriots have the TOP edge and a stable, improving SPBx.

Most of our behavioral paths cluster in:

• Seahawks winning by 1–6, or

• A tight Pats upset.

That makes +4.5 very attractive: our most common realistic scores (20–16, 21–17, 19–17, 20–17) all land inside that number.

Full Game Total – 45.5

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Under 45.5

• Our baseline: 36 points.

• Even giving both teams some upside, the central band is more like high 30s to low 40s:

  • Seahawks: roughly 14–26 most often,

  • Patriots: roughly 13–23 most often.

• To blow past 46+, we need a combination of:

  • Seahawks defense at the ugliest end of its x3.5 bounce and

  • Patriots offense at the top of its x2.6 SBx bounce and

  • Seattle’s offense landing near its ceiling, too.

That’s more of a “highest 10% of outcomes” scenario. For a main position, we stay on the Under.

Team Totals

Seahawks 25.5

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Seahawks Under 25.5

• Base projection: ~21 points.

• Their SBx is strong, but they’re running into:

  • A good, improving Patriots defense (SPBx 0.571, decelerating),

  • A Pats unit that doesn’t usually let the game get out of control.

Within our behavior bands, Seahawks in the 17–24 range is far more common than 27+.

Patriots 20.5

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Patriots Under 20.5

• Base projection: ~16–19 points.

• Pats offense is solid but a tier below Seattle by SBx,

• And when Seattle’s defense doesn’t hit the bad side of its bounce, it behaves like a legit shutdown unit.

Given the matchup, the most frequent Pats outcomes are 13–20. Clearing 21+ requires that true Seahawks defensive clunker.

Note: These two team-total Unders + full game Under are correlated. For newsletter purposes, we can call out:

• Primary totals angle: Full game Under 45.5

• Secondary angles: Seahawks TT Under 25.5, Patriots TT Under 20.5

Field Goals – O/U 3.5

📌 Verdict: PASS (slight lean Over)

Our framework doesn’t directly chart red-zone vs FG behavior, but:

• Low total projection,

• Strong defenses,

• Possession relatively balanced,

…all point toward a game where drives move but stall, which often means more FGs.

We’d lean Over 3.5 as a narrative fit for a 20–16 / 21–17 type game, but the charts themselves don’t give a sharp enough edge to make this a core play.

Winning Margin Props

• Seahawks by <13: +115

• Seahawks by 1–6: +270

Given our range:

• Most Seahawks wins live in the 1–10 point band,

• True blowouts (13+ either way) are possible but sit in the tails of the bounce distributions.

📌 Verdict:

• Small “alt ML” lean – Seahawks by <13 (+115)

  • Functionally similar to a Seahawks ML ticket, but aligned with our belief that if Seattle wins, it’s usually not a 20+ point demolition.

• Fun ladder sprinkle – Seahawks by 1–6 (+270)

  • Perfectly fits the 20–16, 21–17, 19–17 cluster.

  • High-volatility defenses keep wider margins in play, so we don’t want this as our main expression of the edge.