Super Bowl Analytics & Predictions Recap

If You’re Short On Time…

• Near Perfect Final Score Projection

• Mahomes Over Performed (Of Course He Did)

• 49ers Under Performed?!

• 12-5 on all 17 Straight Bets

• +14.9 Units in Profit

Coming Thursday…

In the offseason we will begin to examine every team’s season and determine where they should spend their efforts in both Free Agency and the NFL Draft

What to expect on Thursday:

• Final Applied Football Behavior Rankings For All 32 Teams…

  • Applied Passing Behavior

  • Applied Rushing Behavior

  • Scoring Behavior

  • Margin Foer Error

  • Environmental Control

Final Score

Projection

• Chiefs Win 24-20

Actual

• Chiefs Win 25-22

We were only one point off on the Chiefs total and only two points of of the 49ers final. We hit each of our bets on the moneyline, the spread and each team’s individual point total.

If you’ll recall from our January 9th newsletter, we projected a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl before the playoffs began, with a Chiefs victory. We placed a Futures bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl that day at +900 with PointsBet, which also hit.

Passing Game Projections

Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards Total Projection (In Regulation)

• 246.39

Actual Passing Yards Total (In Regulation)

• 291

• 333 Total (Inc. OT)

Passing Yard Behavior Rate Projection

• 8.132 Yards/Min of Possession Time

Actual Passing Yard Behavior Rate

• 9.1

Brock Purdy

Passing Yards Total Projection (In Regulation)

• 237.16

Actual Passing Yards Total (In Regulation)

• 205

• 255 Total (Inc. OT)

Passing Yard Behavior Rate Projection

• 7.95 Yards/Min of Possession Time

Actual Passing Yard Behavior Rate

• 8.3 Yards/Min of Possession Time

The Overtime period obviously pushed up the passing totals from what we projected, but Mahomes simply over performed. He was incredible accounting for 400 yards of offense with two touchdowns.

The play designs were also excellent helping receivers get YAC in big moments. At the end of regulation, Kelce beating Fred Warner in man-coverage and turning u the sideline to set up the tying field goal, for example, was massive.

We also discussed in our Analytics Guide how the Chiefs pass defense was going to be a key force in this game for them. They held Purdy to 205 passing yards in regulation, and every 49ers receiver under 50 yards, and holding Kittle to just 4 receiving yards.

Running Game Projections

Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards Total Projection

• 127.89 Rushing Yards

Actual Rushing Yards Total (In Regulation)

• 130 Rushing Yards

Rushing Yard Behavior Rate Projection

• 3.75 Yards/Min of Possession Time

Actual Rushing Yard Behavior Rate

• 3.6 Yards/Min of Possession Time

San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards Total Projection (In Regulation)

• 123.15 Rushing Yards

Actual Rushing Yards Total (In Regulation)

• 110

Rushing Yard Behavior Rate Projection

• 4.125Yards/Min of Possession Time

Actual Rushing Yard Behavior Rate

• 2.9 Yards/Min of Possession Time

The running game was interesting. It was very effective for the Chiefs as we projected it would be almost perfectly hitting out projection. We explained how the 49ers run defense behavior was going to elevate the Chiefs already improving running game, and it did, especially from Mahomes, who led with 66 yards rushing.

More surprising was the lack of effectiveness from the 49ers running offense. It looked early on like it was going to really strong day from them, but the Chiefs defense held McCaffery to under 4 yards a carry on 22 carries.

The Chiefs defense was an absolute force in this game, as we said they would need to be for the Chiefs to win. The were the best SPBx defense all season and them limiting the 49ers offense, especially in the run game, was going to be key to give their offense enough opportunities to do enough to win.

Overall Betting Results

*Results tracked and provided by Pikkit

• 12-5 (70.5%)

• +84% ROI

• +14.9 Units of Profit

Full 2023-2024 Season Prediction Record

• 365-224-3 (61.7%)