Super Bowl 58 Analytics & Betting Guides

Presented by

In Case You’re Short On Time…

• Section 1: Super Bowl 58 Analytics Guide

  • Applied Football Behavior Analytics Guide for each team on each side of the ball in each phase of the game seem to give the edge to the under dog

• Section 2: Super Bowl 58 Betting Guide

  • Every Projection, Every Bet Placed

    • 353-219-3 on the season

    • 61.3% hit rate

    • +70.29 Unit Profit

Quit sending emails like a dinosaur.

It’s the year 2024 and all the top newsletters are using beehiiv.

beehiiv was created by the same early Morning Brew employees who scaled their daily email to over 4 million subscribers. And now every newsletter on beehiiv has access to the same tools and winning formula.

So what exactly does beehiiv offer?

• World-class growth tools like the referral program and recommendation network

• Monetization via the beehiiv Ad Network and premium subscriptions (i.e. beehiiv helps you get paid)

• Seamless content creation with a sleek collaborative editor

• Best-in-class inbox deliverability of 98.7%

• Oh and it’s the most affordable by a mile…

Take your newsletter to the next level — get started for free.

Super Bowl 58 Analytics Guide

Every metric in both the run and passing game for each team on each side of the ball is put head to head so you can see who has the edge on Sunday.

• Who has the edge in the passing game?

• What about the running game?

• Are you thinking about the defenses when you answer those questions?

We lay it all out for you, plus, provide each team’s stat projection for yard and touchdowns in both phases of the game.

• Super Bowl 58 Analytics Guide

Football Behavior Super Bowl 58 Betting Guide: Every Projection, Every Bet

• Subscribers get these first with early access, but EVERY Bet is posted and tracked publicly at Pikkit, a free to use, independent bet tracking app.

• We have placed an entry at Underdog Fantasy, where clicking here will get you a $100 deposit match.

• Our Parlays were placed at Caesars, where you can get up t0 5,000 Rewards Credits, just for betting at least $50.

Final Score Projection

• Chiefs 24 (W)

• 49ers 20

Geometric Means

• Chiefs 23.6 (W)

• 49ers 19.5

Bet Placed

• Chiefs Moneyline, 3 bets placed at the following odds:

  • -105 (Bet Placed January 29th)

  • +100 (Bet Placed February 2nd)

  • +105 (Bet Placed February 9th)

• Chiefs +1 (-110, Placed January 29th)

• Chiefs +2 (-110, Placed February 9th)

• Chiefs OVER 22.5 Points Scored (-150)

• 49ers UNDER 22.5 Points Scored (+120)

Passing Projections

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

• 246.39 Passing Yards

• 1.24 Touchdowns

• 0.7 Interceptions

Bets Placed

• Mahomes UNDER 260.5 Passing Yards (-110)

• Mahomes UNDER 1.5 Passing TD’s (+115)

Brock Purdy, 49ers

• 237.16 Passing Yards

• 1.24 Passing Touchdowns

• 0.86 interceptions

Bets Placed

• Purdy UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards (-110)

• Purdy UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

Rushing Projections

Chiefs Rushing Offense

• 127.89 Rushing Yards

• 1.01 Rushing Touchdowns (From a non-Quarterback)

Bets Placed

• Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135)

• Pacheco OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

49ers Rushing Offense

• 123.15 Rushing Yards

• 1.18 Rushing Touchdowns (non-Quarterback)

Bets Placed

• McCaffery Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-225)

• McCaffery UNDER 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Parlays

We see this game as being heavy run game, defense-focused, especially if the Chiefs are to win. Thus, we have a lot of UNDER passing correlated parlays.

Underdog Fantasy Entry ($100 Deposit Match)

• Mahomes LOWER 261.5 Passing Yards

• Purdy HIGHER 3 Rushing Attempts

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling HIGHER 19.5 Receiving Yards

• Richie James Jr. HIGHER 4.5 Receiving Yards

• Christian McCaffery LOWER 92.5 Rushing Yards

9-Leg Same Game Parlay @ Caesars (+20,000)

• Chiefs Moneyline

• Mahomes UNDER 1.5 Passing TD’s

• Purdy UNDER 1.5 Passing TD’s

• Mahomes UNDER 261.5 Passing Yards

• Purdy UNDER 246.5 Passing Yards

• Pacheco FIRST Touchdown Scorer

• Pacheco OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards

• Scantling OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards

• Butler UNDER 2.5 Made Extra Points

7-Leg Same Game Parlay @ Caesars (+5,500)

• Chiefs Moneyline

• Mahomes UNDER 1.5 Passing TD

• Purdy UNDER 1.5 Passing TD

• Mahomes UNDER 259.5 Passing Yards

• Purdy UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards

• Pacheco OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards

• McCaffery OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards

My Favorite Just For Fun Prop Bet

• Any Rostered Offensive Lineman to score a Touchdown (+3,000)