Behavior Analysis

• New England’s profile in the “New Season 2025” row shows a steadier SPBx (lower bounce), which matters in playoff pacing—drive-to-drive prevention is less streaky. Their Level on SPBx plus a modest positive/flat celeration suggests the Patriots are more likely to hold Houston to field-goal-heavy drives than give up clusters of TDs.

• Houston’s SBx carries more variability (higher bounce), so while the Texans can spike, they also produce troughs—exactly where New England’s steadier SPBx can capitalize. When we pair Texans SBx with

• Patriots SPBx and average with the mirror matchup (Pats SBx vs Texans SPBx), the midpoint lands in the high-teens to low-20s for both sides.
  Time of possession tilts slightly to New England when you combine Pats BPB with Texans BPPB: the Patriots are more consistent at owning countable minutes, and Houston’s prevention of possession isn’t quite as tight. That small clock edge supports a “fewer total possessions” game script.

• Put together, you get a controlled game that leans New England—fewer explosive swings (thanks to the Pats’ lower-bounce SPBx), a mild TOP edge, and a composite scoring expectation clustered around 21–17.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

• Moneyline: Patriots -179 — TAKE (modest)
  Projection and steadier SPBx favor NE; ML avoids the hook risk at -3.
  

• Spread: Patriots -3 -113 — LEAN/SMALL TAKE
  Our 21–17 calls for a 4-pt margin; juice is the only hesitation.
  

• Total O/U 40.5 (-115/-105): UNDER — TAKE small
  Our midpoint (38) + Patriots’ pace/defense edge = slight value to under.
  

• Texans Team Total 18.5 (-115/-105): UNDER — TAKE
  Projection ~17; you’re getting the better price on the under.
  

• Patriots Team Total 22.5 (-105/-115): UNDER — LEAN
  We’re at ~21. Not a full take due to late-game field-position points.
  

• Total FGs O/U 3.5 (-125/+105): OVER — LEAN/SMALL
  Two methodical profiles + red-zone suppression tendencies → 4+ FGs live.
  

• Winning margin:

  • Patriots by <13 (+108) — TAKE small

  • Patriots by 1–6 (+255) — SPRINKLE (pairs well with our 4-pt call)

Behavioral Analysis

• Rams offense (SBx) vs. Bears defense (SPBx). The Rams’ scoring behavior level sits in the league’s top tier and the celeration trend has been gently positive—meaning week-over-week their points-per-minute production nudges upward rather than swinging wildly. Their SBx bounce is on the low side, which signals repeatable execution (route timing + early-down efficiency). Chicago’s SPBx is respectable but carries more variance, so when the Rams string first downs, the Bears’ stop rate tends to oscillate. Net: the Rams should find 3–4 sustained scoring drives with a couple of explosive-play assists.

• Bears offense vs. Rams defense. Chicago’s SBx has improved late in the season (celeration above flat), but its bounce is moderate—there are spurts and stalls. The Rams’ SPBx trend has stabilized; they’ve tightened explosives allowed and improved late-half series. That profile limits Chicago’s ceiling but doesn’t erase it—especially if the Bears’ play-action and QB movement generate chunk gains. We still grade the matchup slightly Bears-leaning for red-zone chances, but fewer total possessions cap their total.

• Time of possession (BPB/BPPB). The Rams’ ball-possession behavior is more consistent, and their prevention counterpart (BPPB) quietly forces opponents into longer fields and third-and-medium. Chicago’s BPB is fine when script is neutral; it decays if early drives sputter. Expect the Rams to win the possession “shape”—not necessarily raw minutes, but more quality minutes (shorter third downs, more snaps inside the +40).

• What that means. With the Rams more predictable across all four behaviors (low-to-moderate bounce, gently positive celeration), and the Bears a bit spikier, the median path is a tight Rams win. Our envelope puts most outcomes in a one-score band; turnovers are the main swing factor.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

Moneyline

• Rams -200 — TAKE (moderate confidence). Aligns with our Rams edge and lower volatility on LAR side. Reasonable parlay anchor.

Spread

• Rams -4 (-110) — LEAN TAKE (light). Projection 28-25 sits near -3; we still show a small edge to -4 because of Rams’ consistency, but one-score volatility keeps it a lighter play.

• Bears +4 (-110) — PASS. You’re fading the lower-bounce side and playing into a middling number.

Total (48.5 -110/-110)

• OVER 48.5 — TAKE (light-to-moderate). Model median is 53 with both teams generating multiple red-zone trips. Bears’ SBx is streaky, but the Rams’ pace/efficiency props the total.

Team Totals

• Rams OVER 26.5 (-127) — TAKE (light). Correlates with our 28 and their steady SBx/celeration. Juice is the only drawback.

• Bears OVER 22.5 (-115) — LEAN TAKE (sprinkle). We project 25, but variance on their side is higher; size it smaller than Rams TT.

Field Goals

• Game FGs OVER 3.5 (-115) — TAKE (light). Both profiles show sustained drives with periodic red-zone stalls (Bears SPBx situational wins + Rams BPPB), which tends to produce 4+ attempts.

Winning margins

• Rams by <13 (+121) — TAKE (moderate). Matches our envelope—most of LAR’s win paths are one score.

• Rams by 1-6 (+285) — SPRINKLE. Best alignment with the 3-point projection.

• Rams by 7-12 (+400) — Tiny hedge only. Second-most likely Rams band if they control ToP late.

Staking notes

• Build around Rams ML + Rams TT Over 26.5 + Game FGs Over 3.5. Add Over 48.5 if you’re comfortable with Bears’ volatility. Keep spread and margin props as smaller, complementary exposures.