Saturday Super Wild Card Predictions

If You’re Short On Time:

^{Full Analysis and Behavioral Analytics In The Section Below 👇}

• The Texans may have ended last year stronger than they did this year, likely to make them one and done in the playoffs.

  • We Bet Browns Moneyline and took them -2.5 ATS
    

• The Dolphins offense exposes the fallacy of relying on averages for how we analyze NFL teams, and they have shown nothing to indicate they can take on a defense as quality as Kansas City’s.

  • We Bet Chiefs Moneyline
    

• Buccaneers vs. Eagles Prediction

🟫 Browns vs. Texans

Behavioral Tell

This may be the easiest call of the playoffs, with a caveat. For one, the Texans are the third least deserving team to make the playoffs out of the 14 who did. Their Margin For Error Score ranks 15th in the entire NFL, and 12th out of the 14 teams who made it.

Week to week they have seen a 5% regression in the celeration rate for their scoring behavior. This means they are getting 5% worse on a weekly basis, from the start of the season. Their offense geometrically averages 0.674 points per minute of possession time when CJ Stroud is in at Quarterback, that too was 15th overall in the NFL.

That is good enough for a 14% improvement over last year’s average. However, last year they saw 11% growth week to week, as opposed to this years regression. They are actually ending the season trending worse than they did last season.

Score Projection: Geometric Means

• Browns 25.41 (W)

• Texans 20.53

Projected Spread

• Browns -5.6

Non-Environmental Scores

• Non-Environmental Browns Outcome

  • 28-22 Win

• Non-Environmental Texans Outcome

  • 17-23 Loss

How We Bet (Placed 1/8/2024)

• Browns -2.5 (-115)

• Browns Moneyline (-150)

Risk Report

• Texans Offense (x2.7) vs. Browns Defense (x7)

• Proceed With Caution

Dolphins 🐬 vs. Chiefs (-4) 🏹

Behavioral Tell

To beat a dead horse, the Dolphins offense is NOT good. It is that simple.

They haven’t been good for months. They haven’t been good at the one thing an offense is supposed to be good at: scoring points when they possess the ball, the First Law of Football Behavior.

Their offense saw a WHOPPING 15% REGRESSION week to week in the celeration rate for their scoring behavior. They are getting 15% slower at scoring points when they possess the ball.

When we say they haven’t been good for months, specifically, we mean since Week 6 when they hung 42 on the Panthers at a 1.4 point per minute clip. But that was the turning point in their season.

Through those first six games they averaged 1.2 points per minute of possession time. A pace ahead of last years number one team, defending champs and their opponent this weekend, the Chiefs.

After that Carolina game however, their average dropped 42% for the remaining 11 games to 0.693 points per minute of possession time. That would put them outside the top 10 over the course of a full season, as seen in the chart below 👇

Their scoring behavior rate average for the full season is 0.869 points per minute of possession time. Of their 17 games played, 12 games came in below that average, 10 of them played after Week 6. The chart below not only shows this but also how their performance is seemingly dictated by opponent quality.

Yet, to hear the national media discuss this team, you’ll hear phrases like “they can score at will” or “they’re one of the best offenses in the league”, and then they list off their rankings based on averages.

The TRUTH is the averages are a terrible way to compare NFL teams, or make predictions off of. And furthermore, this Dolphins team hasn’t been what people say they are since before Halloween.

Score Projection: Geometric Means

• Dolphins 16.55

• Chiefs 19.4 (W)

Projected Spread

• Chiefs -2.85

Non-Environmental Scores

• Non-Environmental Dolphins Outcome

  • 19-17 Win

• Non-Environmental Chiefs Outcome

  • 21-14 Win

How We Bet (Placed 1/8/2024)

• Chiefs Moneyline (-200)