🏈The Trend We’re Watching: NFC North
Do the Bears cement their place at the top?

Behavior Analysis

• Eagles SBx vs Commanders SPBx.
  Philadelphia’s SBx Level sits comfortably above league midline, and their Celeration has flattened to mildly positive—i.e., points-per-minute is holding or ticking up. Washington’s SPBx Level lags with a higher Bounce, which signals “bend” pockets and red-zone leakage. That pairing favors sustained Philly drives converting into a mix of 7s and 3s, which is how we arrive near 24 for the Eagles without needing explosive variance.

• Commanders SBx vs Eagles SPBx.
  Washington’s SBx Level is lower with either neutral-to-negative Celeration, and the Bounce is wider—an inconsistent scoring profile. Philly’s SPBx Level is the stronger side of their ball with a tighter Bounce, which typically compresses opponent efficiency and forces longer fields. That interaction caps Washington around the mid-teens, consistent with 15.

• Time of Possession (BPB/BPPB cross-matchups).
  Philly’s BPB plus Washington’s BPPB point to the Eagles edging total minutes—nothing runaway, but enough extra snaps to realize their SBx edge. Flip it, and Washington’s BPB vs Philly’s BPPB is relatively neutral-to-negative for WSH, reinforcing more stalled drives and FG reliance rather than multiple TD strings.

• Volatility lens.
  Because Washington shows the larger Bounce (both on SBx and stretches of SPBx), the most common range skews toward Philly by one score+ in a game that leans FGs + red-zone stands rather than shootout. That matches our 24–15 center and a modestly lower total environment.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Eagles @ Commanders

Our projection: PHI 24 – WSH 15 (model spread PHI −9, model total 39)

• Moneyline

  • Eagles −380 — PASS. The price is steep for a game we still project within two scores.

  • Commanders +290 — PASS. Model doesn’t support the upset often enough.

• Spread

  • Eagles −7 (−114) — TAKE. We make it around −9; you’re getting ~2 points of edge.

  • Commanders +7 (−106) — PASS.

• Total

  • Under 44 (−110) — TAKE. Model 39 → ~5 points of cushion in a bend-don’t-break script.

• Optional prop angle if available at a fair number: Eagles by 1–13 (fits the scoring compression + volatility profile better than a blowout.)

Behavioral Analysis

• Bears SBx vs Packers SPBx.
  Chicago’s SBx Level profiles as slightly stronger than Green Bay’s SPBx Level, and the Bears’ Celeration isn’t fighting them (flat-to-positive), which points to stable points-per-minute. By contrast, the Packers’ SPBx Bounce shows more week-to-week wobble, i.e., some “bend” phases in the low red zone. That pairing supports steady Bears drives translating into a mix of touchdowns and field goals—right around 24.

• Packers SBx vs Bears SPBx.
  Green Bay’s SBx Level is competitive, but variability shows up in Bounce, and the Celeration line hasn’t been screaming upward. Chicago’s defense (SPBx Level with tighter Bounce) compresses opponent efficiency and forces longer fields—classic “bend-don’t-break” behavior that caps explosive scoring runs. That’s how we land near 21 for GB despite an efficient offense overall.

• Time of Possession (BPB/BPPB cross-matchups).
  The Bears’ BPB coupled with GB’s BPPB points to a slight Chicago edge in usable possession time; flipped, GB’s BPBvs CHI’s BPPB looks more neutral. Net: the Bears should own a handful more snaps and at least one extra quality scoring chance—enough to tilt a one-score game.

• Volatility lens.
  Because Green Bay’s offense/Chicago’s defense have the tighter Bounce pairing than the inverse, the more common outcomes cluster in a one-score Chicago win with modest total variance (think 4–6 combined TDs plus a couple of FGs). That aligns cleanly with 24–21 Bears.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Packers @ Bears

Our projection: CHI 24 – GB 21 (model spread CHI −3, model total 45)

• Moneyline

  • Bears −118 — TAKE (modest). We make them ~3-point favorites.

  • Packers −102 — PASS.

• Spread

  • Bears −1 (−112) — TAKE. Our line is −3; you’re paying near pick’em.

  • Packers +1 (−108) — PASS.

• Total 45 (−113/−107)

  • PASS. Our total = 45; edge is minimal. If it ticks to 46.5, lean Under; if it drops to 43.5, lean Over.

If available, consider margin props that match the profile (e.g., Bears by 1–6)