Betting Risk Assessment | Vol. 1, No. 1

The Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool is designed to provide sports bettors with an idea of what games are safer to bet on than others based on their predictability. Predictability of outcomes is determined by the behavioral profiles of each of the 32 teams, placed within the context of their unique game day environments.

We’ve power ranked each of the 16 Week 1 games from riskiest to safest to bet on. This is subject to change throughout the preseason, so keep an eye out for any updates.

Reminder: Pigeon Picks subscribers will have access to the full list. All subscribers will get games ranked 16 through 6.

Don’t miss out on the full potential of the betting model that hit 67% of the time in 2022, with a 91% ROI! Those are numbers were so good because of our risk assessment tool and knowing which games to go with, and which to stay away from.

Risk Assessment Scale:

100%: Riskiest, 100% chance to produce an outlier

0%: Safest, 0% chance to produce an outlier

• 0-23.9%: Safe Bet

• 24-27.9%: Proceed With Caution

• 28% or Higher: Stay Away

STAY AWAY From These Games

Week 1 is inherently the most unpredictable week of the season. We haven’t seen these teams at full go, and many have made dramatic changes to their environments that we haven’t seen play out yet. As such, these are the games that earned a “Stay Away” rating from the Risk Assessment tool.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts 

• Risk Assessment Score: 29.6%, Stay Away

Where is the risk?

The Indianapolis Colts finished 2022 as the NFL’s riskiest team to bet on, with a 35% chance each week of producing an outlier. Their organization descended into chaos that was brewing underneath the surface for years. As we have seen from the Jonathan Taylor negotiations, the chaos lingers (and will so long as it continues to own the team. hint, hint).

On top of that, they have completely revamped their environment with a brand new coaching staff and a new quarterback. Adding to that, the new quarterback is either going to be a career journeyman or a rookie that the consensus believes will need time to develop. Not to mention, their one offensive player you can count on, is MIA.

Even if the Jags were the most stable team on earth, the Colts involvement alone makes this the riskiest game to bet on in Week 1.

15. Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

• Risk Assessment: 29%, Stay Away

Where is the risk?

The New York Jets offense was second riskiest to bet on in 2022. They have revamped their entire offensive environment heading into 2023. New offensive coordinator, new quarterback, new receivers, and maybe even a new running back.

The one saving grace: All of the new additions are familiar with one another because they all migrated from the Green Bay Packer together, with Nathaniel Hackett making a pit stop in Denver. In fact, it is a New York replica of the environment Aaron Rodgers won an MVP in 2021 with.

That said, the lights of New York shine brighter than in Wisconsin, and this whole show comes together under the brightest lights the NFL has, Monday Night Football.

The Bills, for their part, were the 17th ranked team in the risk assessment and were filled with inconsistencies last year. It’s possible they are poised for a step back. There are a lot of new moving parts to this game, and it is likely best for bettors to sit this one out.

That said, it is a primetime game, the model will be making a pick, along with a final score prediction to all subscribers.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings

• Risk Assessment: 28.8%, Stay Away

Where is the risk?

The risk lives with the transition from “Tom”pa Bay back to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were among the riskiest teams to bet on in 2022, and losing the game’s most accomplished quarterback only highlights those issues.

Worse yet, he is likely to be replaced by either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. In fact that is exactly how the Bucs have it on their initial depth chart. “Baker Mayfield OR Kyle Trask”.

Not a good sign for Tampa. We simply have no idea how that situation will play out, and the talent they did have is either older or gone. The Vikings were among the safest teams to bet on in 2022, but the extreme makeover of the Bucs was too much for their consistency to overcome in this game.

13. Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

• Risk Assessment: 28.6%, Stay Away

Where is the risk?

The risk is sleepless in Seattle. Yes, they were fun a story in 2022 with Geno having a revival of sorts. But they were not very consistent. In fact, they were the fourth riskiest team to bet on in 2022, producing an outlier 31.4% of the time.

On offense, the beginning and end of their season (8 games total) was way different then their middle 10 games. Their first three games saw them have an scoring behavior of 0.54 points per minute of possession time. Over the next nine games, that improved by 89% to an average of over 1 point per minute of possession time, which would have been best in the league.

Then in their final five games they regressed by 46%, back down to 0.547 points per minute of possession time. So which Seahawks team will be see in Week 1? Their environment returns in tact for 2023, but what explains the drop off at the end of the season? Did Geno run out of magic?

12. Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

• Risk Assessment: 28.2%, Stay Away

Where is the risk?

The risk with this game is Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense. Yes, the Texans have a new staff and new quarterback.

But the real environmental anomaly is the new offense for Lamar Jackson. Jackson hasn’t played football since November of 2022. He comes back to radically new environment with which to perform in.

After winning an MVP and lighting the league on fire in a power run offense that highlighted his running ability, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is bringing in a spread concept where Lamar will need to perform from the pocket more consistently, something that has long been a struggle for him.

He may crush this new role, but Week 1 is not the time to make that bet when we haven’t seen his new behaviors yet.

Combine with that with facing a Texans team in a full makeover of their own, this is game we likely stay away from in Week 1.

Proceed With Caution With These Games

All games require with caution, but these one’s in particular especially do. There is enough meat on the bone in these matchups to give you a sense of comfortability, but there are few unreliable elements bettors should be aware of.

11. Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders

• Risk Assessment: 27.2%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

Both teams bring risk into this game. Washington was the 6th riskiest team to bet on in 2022. They have brought in a new offensive coordinator, and for all intents and purposes, will have a new quarterback in 2023.

Eric Bienemy comes over from Kansas City after having failed to land a head coaching job. Already we are seeing the impact a new environment can have on players. Reports out of camp are relaying that head coach Ron Rivera told reporters that players have expressed concern to him about Bienemy’s coaching style and intensity. Whether that is good or bad remains to be seen. But we know for sure it is different.

Different means adaptation, which means unpredictability for the sports bettor.

Arizona still has question marks at quarterback as Kyler Murray still isn’t practicing, and right now according to injury expert Deepak Chona, it looks like he may not be ready for Week 1. On top of that there is a brand new coaching staff in the desert, which means brand new playing environment that Murray has yet to practice in.

Proceed with caution, but we would lean away from this game.

10. Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

• Risk Assessment: 27.2%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

Another matchup involving a new quarterback. While Jordan Love may not be rookie, he is still a relative unknown having sat behind Aaron Rodgers for several years before finally getting his shot.

With 18 year veteran Aaron Rodgers, the Packers were the 25th riskiest offense to bet on in 2022. You have to figure with a young, untested quarterback, inconsistency will rise, even if just a little.

In Chi-town, Justin Fields is still developing, but is one of the league’s most exciting players. If he can be the Justin Fields he was for 6 games from 10/23 through 12/4, then this Bears team can be dangerous. That was after they made changes to the offensive line, but before he sprained his AC joint and played through it.

And therein lies the risk. We don’t know which Justin Fields comes out for Week 1.

9. Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

• Risk Assessment: 26.6%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

The Philadelphia defense. This unit was largely overrated last year by just about everybody. But the truth is that they had a very weak schedule, and when they did have to face a top tier scoring offense, they wilted each and every time.

The Eagles only played 5 games against a top 10 scoring behavior (SBx) Offense out of 20 games played.

In those games:

• Had an average Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx) of 1.0 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time in five games against top 10 Scoring Behavior teams.

  • Week 1 @ Detroit Lions (1.2 SPBx)

  • Week 4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0.7 SPBx)

  • Week 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys* (0.6 SPBx)

    • *Cooper Rush started at quarterback for the Cowboys

  • Week 16 @ Dallas Cowboys (1.2 SPBx)

  • Super Bowl vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1.3 SPBx)

Their SPBx was an average of 0.568 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time in the other 15 games.

• The average SBx rank of those teams was 23rd.

• 10 of those teams were ranked below 16th.

• 8 of those teams were ranked below 20th.

They lacked consistency all season on top of that. On top of that, they now have a brand new coaching staff as well. That Patriots were a top half of the league offense in SBx, and made improvements to the roster on that side of the ball. This game could be a test no one is expecting, thus, the caution.

8. Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

• Risk Assessment: 26.6%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

In the Big D. The Giants on the other hand were the 3rd safest team to bet on in 2022. That was very impressive considering they were under rookie head coach Brian Daboll.

Not only do they bring back an intact environment under Daboll, but they have added improved weapons around Daniel Jones, and ensured Saquon’s return.

Dallas, however, was the third riskiest team to bet on in 2022. Yes, on offense, much of that had to do with the early season injury to Dak Prescott and the transition back to him from Cooper Rush. But, they enter 2023 without long time offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, which means a new philosophy and new environment to operate in.

More than offense, however, is the issue with their defense. One of the better performing ones, no doubt. But in terms of consistency, they had a 28% chance of producing an outlier, tied for 6th worst. Remember, the issue isn’t about whether they will be good.

It is a question of if they can be predictable in terms of performance for bettors. Week 1 is not the time to have a firm answer to that question based on 2022. It is the presence of the Giants that makes this game worth betting on. Its the Cowboys that has us proceeding with caution.

7. Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Risk Assessment: 26.3%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

The risk is the Miami Dolphins defense. Last year they were as unreliable a unit as there was in the NFL in terms of consistency. Their defense was the second riskiest defense to bet on in 2022, producing an outlier 34% of the time.

Now, they enter 2023 with an entirely new environment following the hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.

Yes, we expect them to be a better performing unit, but that doesn’t mean we know what better looks like or how consistent it will be in the early part of the season.

Defensive players have already said during camp that it is a “completely different” scheme from last year.

The game is worth looking at for bettors due to the safety of the Chargers, who were the ninth safest team to bet on in 2022, producing an outlier just 22.8% of the time. But the Dolphins have us proceeding with caution.

6. San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Risk Assessment: 26.1%, Proceed With Caution

Where is the risk?

The 49ers bring the risk to this one. There are questions about who will be the quarterback for Week 1. It will in all likelihood be Brock Purdy, but that is something we will continue to monitor throughout the preseason.

Last year the 49ers played four different quarterbacks, by far having their best results with Purdy under center. If he is there, this game maybe moves to a Safe Bet rating. If it is someone like Trey Lance, this game could move to Stay Away.

For now we assume it will be Purdy and we have it rated accordingly. On defense, as dominant as they can be, they produced an outlier 28% of the time, and had a fairly steep trend of 12% of regression week over week in score prevention behavior (SPBx).

Top 5 Safest Games To Bet On Week 1

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.