PICKS AND PREDICTIONS: UFL WEEK 9

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UFL WEEK 9: PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

1. St. Louis vs. Arlington (22-19)

St. Louis has moved down to third on our total team behavior score, and that is largely due to them being the third worst team in our improvement index, with a 26% overall team regression in scoring behavior on both sides of the ball.

They survived the AJ McCaron late lineup scratch, and remain third in our Margin for Error score, but they’ve got to fix their trend patterns as the post season heats up.

Arlington remains the most improved UFL team week to week with a 29% team improvement rate in our improvement index, but they are our 3rd most inconsistent team.

If you remove their 45 point Week 7 explosion, they are an offense that hovers just about half a point per minute, which will not be enough to overcome what we see as the most likely outcome: a 22-19 defeat to the Battlehawks, which could be worse if McCarron is healthy enough to play.

Our spread matches the 3 points from DraftKings, so We are only taking them on the moneyline at -180.

2. Birmingham vs. San Antonio

After St. Louis, San Antonio seems to be the most likely team to knock Birmingham from the unbeatens. However, after seeing quarterback Kevin Hogan light a spark in dwindling offense in steep week to week regression, they returned to Dormady in Week 8, and again posted a paltry 20 points despite having the ball for over 32 minutes.

Luckily their defense remains the best in the league, and is going against the best offense in the league in Birmingham, but they are only 4th in the improvement index holding on to a slight overall team improvement of 5%.

That’s because of their defense being in a steep regression of 49% week to week. They allowed lowly Houston to post by far their best scoring performance of the season, which is becoming part of an alarming trend.

Our prediction model thinks San Antonio will pull off the upset, 22-19. I would feel better about that if Hogan were starting for San Antonio, but if it happens, it’ll be because of the steep regression of Birmingham’s defense allowing a middling Brahmas offense to do just enough, while struggling against their elite defense.

We are going to take the Bahamas at +8.5 points, plus the moneyline at +340.

3. DC vs. Memphis

DC is one of those teams that is not really a contender in any serious way, but they make it difficult for you along your own journey. They’re the best team of the worst four in the league, and their the second most inconsistent team in the league, which is why their not a strong contender, and also what makes them hard to predict and game plan for.

Memphis remains the worst team in the league in all behavior categories, but they are coming off by far their best defensive performance of the season, which was still not good.

This is a game DC should win on the strength of its defense 24-19. Our five point spread matches the spread from DraftKings, so we are only taking DC on the moneyline at -238

4. Michigan vs. Houston

Michigan has climbed up to number in our Total Team Behavior Score. They’ve done it on the heels of a strong margin for error score as their defense continues to be one of the top units in the league, and their offense remains capable of competing with the best.

In Houston they will be going against the second most regressed team in the league this season, at a week to week rate of 38%, and the most inconsistent team of the season with 2.4 bounce rate.

If Michigan wants to be seen with the big boys of Birmingham and St. Louis, this is a game they need to win and make a statement in. We predict they will do just that with the most likely outcome being a 27-15 victory.  We’re taking Michigan to cover the 4 points, and on the moneyline at -192.