PICKS AND PREDICTIONS: UFL WEEK 7

UFL WEEK 7 PICKS

We are 12-5 on the season after a 3-3 Week 6. We have made 2.6 units of profit with a +22.36% ROI. On to Week 7.

1. Memphis vs. Arlington

BATTLE OF BAD DEFENSES: Arlington had its best offensive game of the season by far in Week 6. With 3 out of five games under 0.5 points per minute, they scored 0.95 points per minute against the Panthers. This week they face Memphis and their putrid defense to try and keep it going. Unfortunately for them, their defense is just as bad and Memphis will squeak this one out most likely by a score of 24-22.

2. St. Louis vs. Birmingham

This is the GAME OF THE WEEK. These are the two best teams in the league. Birmingham comes in undefeated, but won’t leave that way. 4 of their six games have been against the three worst defenses in the league, (Memphis twice, Arlington and Houston). Against Michigan and DC, the offense really struggled to get above half a point scored per minute. The St. Louis offense is just as good, and has done it against better defenses, including the elite Brahmas defense, and they have an elite defense of their own. They’re going to hand the Stallions their first loss of the season 23-20.

3. Michigan vs. DC

BATTLE OF THE MIDS: Each of these teams could lead the second tier of UFL teams. Michigan’s defense started out hot, but has gotten worse each week at a rate of 71%, culminating in their season worst Week 6 performance allowing 0.95 points per minute to the Renegades. The DC defense is trending in the other direction, improving in their score prevention behavior by 26% week over week, living up to their name, but their offense has been meh, averaging just over 0.6 points per minute. That’s going to help the Panthers win this one 24-20.

4. San Antonio vs. Houston

As much as San Antonio is on our shit list for forgetting where the end zone is located in Week 6, they luck out by getting to play Houston in Week 7, who is doing a lot of work with the word “ROUGH” in their team name. The Roughnecks followed up a league worst 0.3 scoring behavior performance of 0.3 points per game minute in Week 5, to go below that in Week 6, and are regressing at a rate of 59% week to week. Assuming the Brahmas recall the art of scoring touchdowns in Week 7, they should redeem themselves, and me, by winning this one 23-14.

_{*All of our bets were placed with DraftKings Sportsbook, and our bets can be publicly tracked at Pikkit Sports, sign up for a free account today using code FBX!}