Behavior Analysis

• Buffalo’s SBx (scoring behavior per minute) and Denver’s SPBx (score-prevention rate) are closely matched, which is why our geometric-mean projection comes out essentially even. From the bounce rates, both sides show moderate stability on offense with slightly tighter variability on defense—Denver’s SPBx looks marginally steadier, while Buffalo’s SBx trend (celeration) has held near flat to gently positive, keeping their baseline output intact even when game states wobble.

• Flipping the lens, Denver’s SBx vs Buffalo’s SPBx is the same “knife-edge” story: the Broncos’ scoring pace is efficient when they stay on schedule, but Buffalo’s prevention trend has kept opponent per-minute scoring contained. Given bounce values that sit in the “predictable-to-moderately-predictable” band, the most likely envelope centers on a one-score game, with the tails defined more by situational finishing (red-zone vs field-goal trades) than wild possession swings.

• Time-of-possession behavior (BPB vs BPPB) points to sustained possessions and a handful of stalled drives rather than a track meet. That aligns with a total that lands in the low-40s more often than the high-40s, and it increases the probability of multiple field-goal attempts both ways. In short: sustained drives, compressed explosive scoring, and red-zone tightening—classic ingredients for an “under with FG volume” script.

• Because both teams’ bounces are contained and the celeration lines are not screaming in opposite directions, our 21–20 Bills call fits the central tendency: Bills’ slight SBx edge + comparable defensive steadiness wins a close, slow-to-medium tempo contest.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

Moneyline

• Bills -105 — TAKE (small). Our projection slightly favors Buffalo while the market makes Denver a hair of a favorite. That’s thin, but it’s positive expected value compared with laying -113 on Denver.

• Broncos -113 — PASS. You’re paying a premium into an essentially 50/50 matchup.

Spread

• Bills +1 -115 — PASS (prefer ML). Price isn’t great; if you like Buffalo, take the cheaper ML.

• Broncos -1 -105 — PASS. Coin-flip game; we’re not laying points into our Bills-lean projection.

Total (46) -108/-112

• UNDER 46 — TAKE (small/medium). Our central outcome clusters around 40–44. The possession profile + red-zone tightening supports field goals over touchdowns enough to lean under.

Team Totals (both 23.5)

• Bills UNDER 23.5 -125 — TAKE (small). Juicey, but still aligns with a 21-ish median.

• Broncos UNDER 23.5 -124 — TAKE (small). Same logic; our script rarely lands Denver at 24+ without a turnover-aided spike.

Game Total Field Goals 3.5 (-115/-115)

• OVER 3.5 — TAKE. Sustained drives + moderate red-zone bounce favor 4+ FGs more often than the price implies.

Winning Margin (consider a light Dutching approach)

• Bills by less than 13 (+145) & Broncos by less than 13 (+150) — TAKE (split stake). Fits the one-score envelope and avoids choosing the exact side.

• If you prefer precision: Bills 1–6 (+305) and Broncos 1–6 (+340) as smaller sprinkles.

• 7–12 (both ways +500/+475) — PASS/very small sprinkle only if you want to widen tails; less aligned with our central script.

How to size

• Heavier: Under 46; Over 3.5 FGs.

• Medium/Light: Bills ML; both team totals UNDER 23.5.

• Small Sprinkles: Dutch “by <13” (both sides) or the 1–6 exact bands.

Behavioral Analysis

• Seattle’s SBx (scoring rate) projects a steady output: the Level is strong and celeration has held near flat-to-positive, and the bounce sits in the stable → moderate band (≤~x2.3). That profile usually travels—especially at home—because you’re getting roughly the same points-per-minute regardless of game script. San Francisco’s SPBx (score prevention) is good on Level, but its bounce is higher (closer to the volatile band >~x2.5), which widens the “allowed” range when faced with an efficient offense like Seattle’s. Net of those two forces, Seattle’s median possession-by-possession expectation stays intact more often than not.

• Flip it and you get the hinge of the game: the 49ers’ SBx versus the Seahawks’ SPBx. Our sheet shows SF’s celeration drifting sideways-to-down, and a larger bounce envelope on offense, while Seattle’s SPBx is relatively tight (≤~x2.3). That pairing suppresses SF red-zone conversion odds and increases field-goal likelihood when drives stall. In lower-variance matchups like this, the Seahawks’ defense gains EV by forcing 3’s over 7’s.

• Time of possession tilts incrementally Seattle, too. The BPB/BPPB pairing favors the Seahawks: their ball-control behaviors (drive length, clock drain) are more consistent, and their prevention behaviors limit opponent TOP spikes. In practice, that means +2–4 plays and +2–3 minutes to Seattle’s side—just enough to lean the scoring math.

• Roll all four cross-matchups together and the behavioral median lands close to our projection: Seahawks 22, 49ers 15. With Seattle’s bounce lower across the critical phases and SF’s offense the more variant side, the most likely game script is methodical Seattle scoring, San Francisco trading time for 3’s, and a total that trends under its market number.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

• Moneyline: Seahawks -335 — PASS
  Correct side by the model, but the price is steep; better deployed in round-robin parlays if you must include it.

• Spread: Seahawks -7 -110 — TAKE (light)
  Our projection is SEA by 7. With Seattle the lower-bounce team and SF’s offense volatile, 6–12 is a common window. If your book offers -6.5 near -120, that’s preferable; at flat -7, stake small.

• Total 44 — TAKE: UNDER (-111/-110)
  Projection 37 with both defenses compressing red-zone success. Bounce context favors fewer outlier scoring bursts.

• 49ers Team Total 18.5 — TAKE: UNDER (-121)
  SF’s SBx variance vs SEA’s tight SPBx makes 17–19 the ceiling band in many sims; under has the better tail protection.

• Seahawks Team Total 26.5 — PASS / slight lean UNDER (-113)
  Model says ~22. Not enough edge to pay juice unless you need a correlated piece with the game under.

• Game Total Field Goals O/U 3.5 — TAKE: OVER (-115)
  Defensive compression + TOP drain often yields 4–5 attempts. This correlates with the game under and SF TT under.

• Winning margins

  • Seahawks by <13 (+109) — TAKE (primary): Covers 1–12; matches our volatility-adjusted sweet spot.

  • Seahawks by 7–12 (+330) — TAKE (sprinkle): Maps exactly to the 22–15 center and neighboring outcomes.

  • Seahawks by 1–6 (+305) — PASS: Possible, but our center is 7; you’re paying for a narrower band.

Confidence notes (bounce-aware)

• Seahawks: SBx/SPBx bounce in the Stable → Moderate tiers (≤~x2.3) → higher predictability.

• 49ers: SBx bounce >~x2.5 (Volatile), SPBx tighter but not as tight as Seattle → more outcome spread on SF scoring.