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Table of Contents
What We’re Tracking:
🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Who’s For Real?
Jaguars, Patriots, and a few others have a chance to prove their worth. Will they?
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Sunday Night Football
Patriots @ Ravens
Behavior Analysis
Patriots SBx vs. Ravens SPBx. New England’s SBx Level isn’t flashy, but the Celeration line has turned modestly up, and their Bounce is tighter—fewer wild swings in points-per-minute. Baltimore’s SPBx still grades well on Level, but its Bounce is wider than NE’s SBx, which opens red-zone windows. In short: steadier NE efficiency versus a slightly more variable BAL red-zone defense is how we get to ~22 for the Pats.
Ravens SBx vs. Patriots SPBx. Baltimore’s SBx has cooled (flattening/soft Celeration) with a Bounce band that’s widened relative to midseason. That runs right into a Patriots SPBx profile with a firmer Level and tighter Bounce—classic compress-and-contain. The match yields more stalled drives and 3s than 7s for Baltimore, anchoring them around 17.
Time of possession (BPB/BPPB, both ways). New England’s BPB is the more stable side here (lower Bounce), and versus a Ravens BPPB that isn’t hyper-tight, the Patriots project a small TOP edge—enough extra snaps to cash one more scoring sequence. Flipped, BAL’s BPB vs NE’s BPPB looks closer to neutral, reinforcing a low-variance, field-position game.
Volatility lens. With NE’s Bounce tighter on both SBx and SPBx, the 70% band clusters around Pats by 3–7; the 90% band sits roughly 17–13 to 24–20. That’s a defense-forward script, not a track meet.
Patriots @ Ravens Betting Guide
Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Patriots @ Ravens
Projection: NE 22 – BAL 17 (model spread NE −5, model total 39)
Moneyline
Patriots +140 — TAKE. We make NE a small favorite; plus money is value.
Ravens −170 — PASS.
Spread
Patriots +3.5 (−114) — TAKE. Our line is NE −5; you’re catching more than a TD of model edge.
Ravens −3.5 (−106) — PASS.
Total 48.5 (−110/−109)
UNDER 48.5 — TAKE. Model 39 → ~9.5 points of cushion in a bend-don’t-break game.
OVER — PASS.
If books offer fair prices: conservative sprinkles like Patriots by 1–13 or Over 3.5 total FGs fit the envelope, but the core value is Pats ML / +3.5 and Under 48.5.
Responsible note: Keep total exposure modest (≈ 1% of bankroll for the whole card). We’re betting price vs. behavior, not certainty.
Bet at YOUR OWN RISK. These are what WE WOULD DO, not what YOU should do. Only YOU know what is right for you, and only you are responsible for the decisions you make.
Monday Night Football
49ers @ Colts
Behavioral Analysis
49ers SBx vs Colts SPBx.
San Francisco’s SBx Level sits in the upper tier with a flat-to-positive Celeration, i.e., points-per-minute is holding or nudging up. Indy’s SPBx Level is middling and the Bounce band is wider, which signals stretches of red-zone “bend.” That pairing favors steady Niners drives cashing into a blend of 7s and 3s—right around 27 without needing outlier explosiveness.Colts SBx vs 49ers SPBx.
Indianapolis’ SBx Level reads below the Niners’ defensive SPBx Level, and the Colts carry the larger Bounce (week-to-week wobble). San Francisco’s SPBx shows a tighter envelope and non-negative Celeration, a classic compress-and-contain profile that forces longer fields and limits multi-TD streaks. That interaction anchors Indy near the mid-teens (~16).Time of possession (BPB/BPPB cross-matchups).
The 49ers’ BPB is the more stable side (lower Bounce) and meets a Colts BPPB that isn’t airtight—edge SF in controllable minutes and total snaps. Flipped, Indy’s BPB runs into a firmer Niners BPPB, which trims their sustained-drive count. Net: a couple more quality possessions for SF.Volatility lens.
Because SF is tighter on both SBx and SPBx while Indy carries more Bounce, the common cluster is Niners by one to two scores in a total that lands low-to-mid 40s—exactly our 27–16 center.
49ers @ Colts Betting Guide
Behavioral Betting Recommendations — 49ers @ Colts
Our projection: SF 27 – IND 16 (model spread SF −11, model total 43)
Moneyline
49ers −260 — TAKE (small). Pricey, but our edge rates SF as a clear favorite.
Colts +210 — PASS.
Spread
49ers −5.5 (−110) — TAKE. We make it closer to −11; solid value through key ranges.
Colts +5.5 (−109) — PASS.
Total 46 (−113/−107)
UNDER 46 — TAKE. Model 43 and a bend-don’t-break texture give ~3 points of cushion.
OVER — PASS.
Responsible note: Keep total exposure modest (≈ 1% of bankroll for the whole card). We’re betting price vs. behavior, not certainty.
Bet at YOUR OWN RISK. These are what WE WOULD DO, not what YOU should do. Only YOU know what is right for you, and only you are responsible for the decisions you make.
FULL Week 16 Betting Guide
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