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October Profit Report

October Profit Report

Where We Stand Through The First Two Months Of The 2023 NFL Season

Brett Yarris
October 31, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

_*_{All stats tracked independently at}_Pikkit_{, a FREE to use Bet Tracking App}

We are now through two calendar months of the 2023 NFL season, with September and now October officially behind us. Below is our profit report for October, a refresher on September’s numbers, and any changes we are making to the strategies involved in managing our portfolio.

Pigeon Pick Subscribers got the most benefit as they have access to every bet we place for every game played. If they tailed, they have paid for their subscription many times over in profit. It isn’t too late to join the Behavior Science movement inside of sports betting. The model only gets sharper from here.

Human Behavior is predictable. Humans play football. Football Behavior is predictable.

What’s In Here?

October Profit Report
Strategy Changes
NFL Scoring Behavior Report
MNF Recap

October Profit Report

Record

91-42 (68.4% Hit Rate) ✅
September: 48-25-3 (63.1% Hit Rate)

Return On Investment

+23.62% 📈
September: +23.82%

Profit

_{(Profit is based on OUR $11.64 Base Unit, Profits will vary based on YOUR own unit size)}

+$339.67 💰
September: +$181.02

Strategy Changes

Unit Size Increase
- Given another profitable month, we will be increasing our base unit size by 23.62% from $11.64 to $14.39.
Selectivity
- Given we have a clearer image of which teams are behaving consistently and which are extremely volatile, we have set rules on teams we will and will not bet on.
  - Any team with a bounce rate OVER x2.4 and/or a celeration trend in either direction OVER ✖️/➗1.15, will get a STAY AWAY rating and we will not be placing a bet on a game involving them. We will note this in our Risk Reports sent to subscribers.
- For what is meant by bounce rate, refer to our glossary of terms
Dutch Betting
- On games with a low volatility rating (UNDER 22%) we will begin dutch betting again after a pause following the extreme volatility of Weeks 3 & 4. For a refresher on what that is and how we use it here at Football Behavior, click the link below
- What Is Dutch Betting?
Alternate Spreads & Totals
- Given the way our Behavior Science Model works, not only do we get a final score projection, but we also get a range of outcomes due to bounce rates. We have been VERY profitable using that to place bets on alternate spreads and totals. We will make that the densest part of our portfolio. For how that works, click the link below:
- What Is An Alternate Spread?
Teasers
- We very briefly at the tail end of October began to use Teasers. These are mini parlays using Alternate Spreads and Totals. In games with a low risk score (22% or BELOW) we will be selective in betting teasers to get into plus odds. For more on what a Teaser Bet is, click below
- What Is A Teaser Bet?