November Profit Report

A quick note:

November is over, which means we are coming into the final leg of the NFL regular season. Our focus on using the analysis of human behavior in better understanding football analysis and hone in on what is really driving certain performances has been incredibly rewarding this season and November was another good month for proof of concept.

One thing I have really become attuned to over this season is the amount of dogmatic thinking that exists in the world of football analysis, and even in sports betting. Much of the discourse implies, even demands, the matter is settled and there is only a handful of ways to look at something.

As someone who’s worked directly with the humans playing and coaching the game, I’ve always rejected that notion and have been excited to add a new perspective, even a new paradigm, into how we examine and predict this game. The sports betting is fun, but it is merely a proof of concept vehicle into the benefits of using Human Behavior to better understand this beautiful game.

We’ve begun to introduce the underlying philosophy and science to how we do this. Get caught up before the next one comes out!

• The Three Laws Of Football Behavior

• The First Law Of Football Behavior 

Alas, here is how we did in November:

November Profit Report

It is not too late to become a premium Football Behavior member and FULL access to the underlying science and prediction model for every game of every week, all the way through the Super Bowl. Additionally, we will provide NFL Draft insights among new content series. The proof of concept is well established. Now get on board with the paradigm shift in how we look at this wonderful game!

Profit

• +21.7 units

Return On Investment

• +14.67%

Record

• 97-79 (55%)

We had a pretty rough end of the month in Week 12. But even that was a positive. Every game where are projected most likely outcome didn’t come to fruition, made sense behaviorally. If you read our profiles you will see that we outlined the different ways the games could go, and all of the games went that way.

There a few outlier performances, where things broke in a way where those outliers made sense. Like Minnesota vs. Chicago. We outlined the steep regression of Josh Dobbs and the variability of Chicago’s defense. While the outcome wasn’t the most probable, it at least made sense based on identifying those two potential outliers, that coincided with each other.

Was a really good educational experience for us, and hopefully for you, and one we can use to further sharpen the model.

Strategy Shift

As such, and as has been typical this season when he hit a new phase of the season, we will embark on some new strategies.

1. Increase in Unit size. Each phase we have taken our ROI and added that amount to our unit size, and used that as our base unit for that phase. Our ROI in November was +14.67, so that is what we are adding to our unit size.

2. More Selectivity. Each week moving forward we will release to you our Environmental Control Chart. This will come with further explanation, but most importantly, it will explain why we select certain games to NOT bet on. Profiles on team behavior are entering a phase where they will be at their most accurate before the playoffs. So with this chart, we can better tease out where to place our dollars.

3. Return To Basics. With an increase in selectivity comes an increase in safer, more predictable games to bet on. As such, money lines and spreads will come back into play for us. We will continue to use alt spreads when they make sense. We will also see more dutch betting on safe games (as indicated in the risk reports).

4. Disciplined Rule Setting. We will not be betting, under any circumstances on games involving environmental phases with less than three weeks of data in that phase. Environmental phases include, but are not limited to, coaching changes, quarterback injuries, outlier player injuries, etc. We are entering coach firing season, of which there have already been a few.

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