NFL Pigeon Picks Week 1

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Primetime Pigeon Picks

Primetime predictions are for everyone, so enjoy. Each game is broken down in this video, along with how we are betting on each one!

Remember, Week 1 is extremely risky. These teams have not established a pattern of behavior and many have new coaches and quarterbacks.

As such, we are very selective and rely on the Football Behavior Consistency Score to help us navigate this part of the season, favoring organizations with environmental continuity, who showed high levels of consistency last year.

If we don’t place a bet on a. game and think its one folks should stay away from we will note that!

For those who need a refresher on what we do and how we do it, all resources are published right here for your convenience, as well as many of our educational pieces found at footballbehavior.com

Now, Let’s Line it Up!

Thursday Night Football

Ravens @ Chiefs

Final Score Prediction:

• 21-18 Chiefs

How we bet:

• Chiefs ML (-155)

• Dutching Winning Margins (?)

  • Chiefs 1-6 +280 ($7.08 out of $20.00)

  • Ravens 1-6 +320 ($7.64 out of $20.00)

  • Chiefs 7-12 +450 ($5.28 out of $20.00)

    • If any one of those hits, $9.03 profit (45.16% ROI)

Behavioral Key:

• Ravens inconsistency. After their bye week last year, they became 42% MORE inconsistent week to week, while regressing 25% week to week in scoring behavior rate. What did they do to fix that? We’ll find out.

Friday Night Football

Packers @ Eagles

Final Score Prediction:

• 24-21 Packers

How we bet:

• Packers ML (+114)

• Packers +2.5 (-108)

Behavioral Key:

• Trends. Two teams that ended the season in opposite directions. The Packers improved 22% week over week in their scoring behavior, while the Eagles regressed all year by 10% week over week in theirs.

• Environmental Change. Returners will note how we alerted everyone to the Eagles regression and true colors all season long. How will they navigate yet another brand new coaching environment?

Sunday Night Football

Rams @ Lions

Final Score Prediction:

• 24-24 Tie

How we bet:

• Rams +3.5 (-108)

Behavioral Key:

• Consistency. The Rams were the most consistent team in the NFL week in and week out in 2023, and probably should have one their playoff game against the Lions last year.

• Lions Defense. The Lions will never take the next step if their defense cannot improve in giving up points to the opposing offense in 2024. They were second worst in the entire league last year in score prevention behavior rate. That’s not going to get it done this year.

Monday Night Football

Jets @ 49ers

Final Score Prediction:

• 24-19 49ers

How we bet:

• NO BET

Behavioral Key:

• Unknown. We rate this game as one to stay away from. As we noted in the video we just don’t have any idea what Aaron Rodgers looks like as a Jet and how he may perform, especially on the road against the defending NFC champions. We would not place a bet on this game.

Full Week One Slate

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers get every single NFL game every week. Following the Week 4 games our exclusive proprietary analytics will be available to them as well!

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After kickoff, all of our bets can be found publicly on Pikkit!

Cardinals @ Bills

Final Score Prediction:

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