NFL Picks and Predictions: Week 8

It’s Week 8 and we have every prediction and pick that we’ve made. Some games we stayed away from for environmental reasons (Dolphins, Bucs, etc.). Others we were very selective on for analytics purposes.

Should be a great week! Remember, everyone will see these primetime game picks, and Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have every game and prediction down below!

Thank you to the new Pigeon Picks+ subscribers who signed dup last week! Lets keep it rolling!

Week 8 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

One of the premiere matchups in the NFL, even when both teams are at less than their best.

We avoided a bet on this game for several reasons:

• The Cowboys rank 28th in our Consistency Score

  • Their defense is especially volatile

• The Cowboys offense is in sharp regression week over week

  • They are regressing 51% week over week, and a leveling out may be due, bucking the trend

• The books have this at a 4.5 spread in favor of San Fran

  • We have it as a 5 point spread. There is no edge on the spread for us to place a bet

Monday Night Football

Two more premiere franchises in the NFL, linked by blood and marriage. This one we have a bet for.

• The Steelers defense is a brutal matchup for the Giants offense

• The Steelers offense is showing signs of leveling off, even with the switch at Quarterback

  • The leveling off would put them among the best scoring behavior offenses in the NFL

• We have the Steelers winning by 10+ points, more than a field goal above the -6 points the book had the line at

• We took Steelers -6.5

Pigeon Pick of the Week

This game checks all of the boxes for confidence in a prediction:

• Both teams have flat celeration trends, or trends that are not too sharp in either direction, in danger of leveling off

• Their trends matchup for continuation

  • For example, the Seahawks offense is regressing week over week as the Bills defense is improving week over week

• We took two bets on this game, the moneyline and the spread

All Week 8 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 8 Pigeon Picks

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