NFL Picks and Predictions: Week 7

Week 7 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday MORNING Football (LONDON)

The Jags returned to form in Week 6 showing us, that as we expected, Week 5 was an outlier. This is their next best chance to win a game.

But, we think these two teams are pretty evenly matched up with one another, and we like the upside of the Drake Maye-led Pats offense to put more points up than usual. It is a toss up as to who will win, but we like the Pats to at least keep it close and cover.

Sunday Night Football

For the second time in two weeks, the Jets have made a major environmental move in acquiring Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders.

Environmentally, this doesn't just affect Aaron Rodgers. What does it mean for Garrett Wilson? Breece Hall? How about Todd Downing who just took over play calling duties, and now in his second week, has to incorporate Adams a week after trying to get Wilson more involved?

Not to be outdone, the Steelers have made the move to bench Justin Fields and start Russell Wilson this week, a move we believe to be a potential mistake, as we discussed here.

For these reasons, we are not comfortable placing a bet on this game that has so many unknowns.

Monday Night Football

This is our Best Bet of the Week for Week 7. Consistency, strength of schedule, edge on offense and defense, and home field advantage. In our video we dig deep into how this all has led us to conclude the most likely outcome is a Buccaneers victory!

All Week 7 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Final Score Predictions

Key 🔑:

• Projected scores represent the geometric means of all possible outcomes inside of each team’s “bounce range”

  • Away/Home projections correspond with Away and Home Team in Blue

• Black Horizontal line up separates each game

• “TOP” is projected Time of Possession for each team, calculated by taking the celeration rates of each teams ball possession behavior

• “Outlier time” is time unaccounted for in the projection that could sway the game in favor of the team that claims it

• Projected Spread is what we think the spread should be based on our projections

Here’s our record through the first 6 weeks of the season (not counting Week 7 Thursday Night Football, which was a win for us with Denver on the ML):

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