NFL Analytics: What Is Momentum?

If You’re Short On Time…

• Yes, Momentum Is Real

  • Yes, Momentum Is Measurable

  • No, Momentum Does NOT Disprove or Invalidate The Value of Analytics

• UPDATE: Early Super Bowl Betting Is INTERESTING

• Next Week: Using Applied Football Behavior Analytics To Build A Super Bowl Parlay

Is Momentum Real?

Following the Lions loss to the 49ers last Sunday, the usual debate around “analytics” ensued. Every time this happens, the conversation incorrectly becomes binary, and both sides demonstrate they don’t really know how analytics are applied in the NFL.

Why is that? Not only do we scientifically define momentum, we give you the actual mathematical equation on how to measure it, and explain why analyst media and fans alike are so misinformed about it.

From our Applied Football Behavior Analytics:

• Is Momentum Real?

What Does Early Betting For The Super Bowl Look Like?

This is the odd time of the NFL calendar where after weeks of non-stop action, we get a week off between Conference Championship weekend and the Super Bowl.

Looking at the public betting so far is very interesting. A quick look at Pikkit shows us an array of how their users are betting across the different sports book.

Total Bets Analyzed

• 54,500+ bets placed by their users across different sports books, as of Wednesday PM

Moneyline

• 75.2% of the money for the Moneyline coming in on Kansas City

• 84.6% of the bets on the Moneyline coming in on Kansas City

Against The Spread

• 74.8% of the money against the spread are coming in on Kansas City to cover +1.5 or +2 depending on book

• 68.8% of the bets against the spread are coming in on Kansas City to cover +1.5 or +2 depending on book

Over/Under

• 69.1% of the money is coming in on the UNDER (47-47.5 depending on book) to hit

• 48.8% of the bets are coming in on the UNDER (47-47.5 depending on book) to hit

So far, the public is all in on the Chiefs to cover and win. And while the money is on the UNDER to hit, more people are betting the OVER to hit.

Our Bets

How We Bet (EARLY Lines…)

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