NFC North Team Reports

The NFC North looks to be one of the most exciting divisions in football this year. The Lions, yes those Lions, are poised to make it to the postseason. The Vikings are looking to prove they weren’t a fluke. The Packers are starting a new era, and the Chicago Bears have some excitement with Justin Fields, but their defense was the worst in football. How can we make money off of this division in 2023?

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• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

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Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears Offensive Ranking

The Chicago Bears have a developing Justin Fields at quarterback who, if nothing else, brings excitement to every snap. Here is what 2022 looked like for the offense in Scoring Behavior (SBx):

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means a defense was getting better

  • Trending up means a defense was getting worse.

The Bears Offense Found Consistency…Then Lost It: Bounce Rate

The Chicago Bears offense was wildly inconsistent during the first third (six games) of the season. It found that consistency during the second third of the season (six games), and then lost it for the final third of the season (five games):

• First third of the season, the Bears offense had a bounce rate of x2.8, the top end of the “Proceed With Caution” zone.

  • This prompted significant roster changes to the offensive line, and elsewhere.

• Second third of the season, starting with the Week 7 Monday Night Football games against the Patriots, their bounce rate improved by 53.5% to x1.3.

  • That stretch of games was one of the most consistent stretch of games for any offense in the NFL all season.

• In the final third of the season the Bears’ bounce rate got worse by 23% to x1.6, still within the “Safe Bet” zone.

  • In Week 12 quarterback Justin Field missed the game due to an AC joint injury. He returned in Week 13 and played the rest of the season with the injury.

Those Changes Likely Impacted the Bears: SBx Rate

The Bears SBx:

• Was 0.469 points per minute of possession through the first third of the season.

• Jumped by 110% to 0.983 points per minute of possession through the second third of the season

  • Prior to their Week 7 game, the Bears made significant roster changes to their offensive line.

• Fell by 45.5% to 0.534 through the final third of the season.

  • Justin Fields, who had missed the Week 12 matchup with an AC joint injury, returned in Week 13 to play the rest of the season through the injury.

Chicago Bears Defensive Ranking

The Bears defense was not good at all. The biggest impact to their performance was the trade of star linebacker Roquan Smith.

Bears Defense Was Bad, But A Safe Bet: Bounce Rate

The Bears defense was too risky to bet on with Roquan Smith, but performed better. They got worse without him, but were consistent for sports bettors to know what to expect:

• Bounce rate of x3.3 prior to the trade is in the “Stay Away” zone.

• Following the trade, the bounce rate improved by 51.5% to x1.6, making them a “Safe Bet”.

The Bears Defense Got Worse Without Roquan Smith: SPBx

The Bears SPBx:

• Was 0.691 points allowed per minute of opponent possession with Roquan Smith through eight games.

• After the trade, their average SPBx jumped to 1.001 points allowed per minute of possession.

  • That jump was a 45% regression

  • 1.001 was the worst SPBx of any defense over any nine game stretch in the NFL.

Chicago Bears 2023 Outlook

The Bears 2023 success depends on stabilization of the offensive environment, if they can replace Roquan Smith on defense in Year 2 with Eberflus’ system.

• With a better offensive line, Justin Fields and the offense thrived.

  • Used 10th overall pick on Darnell Wright, offensive tackle out of Tennessee

• Without Roquan Smith, the defense collapsed.

  • Is Tremaine Edmunds a suitable replacement?

The Chicago Bears have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should use patience in order to figure out if the Bears can adapt to some of the changes they have made from 2022.

Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions Offensive Ranking

The Detroit Lions have Jared Goff reprising his role as the team’s starter, and for good reason. Here is what 2022 looked like for the offense in Scoring Behavior (SBx).

The Lions Offense Was Consistently Good: Bounce Rate

The Detroit Lions offense was very consistent in 2022 while playing at a high level. They had two extreme outliers on either end of the bye week that, when placed in context, show how good this offense was:

• The Lions had a x1.8 bounce rate when removing two extreme outliers.

  • x1.8 is well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

  • They had two outliers in Week 5 and Week 7 that, if included, would balloon their bounce rate to x4.5.

H3: The Lions Were Good and Stayed Good: SBx Rate

The Lions SBx:

• Improved by 10% week over week.

• Removing two extreme outliers from Week 5 and Week 7, their SBx would have been 0.982 points scored per minute of possession.

  • 0.982 SBx would have been the best scoring offense in the NFL

Detroit Lions Defensive Ranking

The Lions defense was absent for the early part of the season. After making schematic changes, they began to find their stride.

Lions Defense Was Mostly Consistent: Bounce Rate

The Lions defense improved greatly during the season, and stayed consistent in their rate of improvement:

• Bounce rate of x2.6 was well within the “Proceed With Caution” zone.

  • They had one outlier in Week 9 that, if removed, would improve their bounce rate by 23% to x2, well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

Scheme Changes Helped The Lions Defense Get Better: SPBx

The Lions SPBx:

• Got better starting in Week 5 after they reportedly made scheme changes to their defense in order to simplify things.

  • Prior to those changes, the Lions had an SPBx of 1.13 points allowed per minute of opponent possession, by far the worst in the NFL.

  • After those changes in Week 5, their SPBx dropped to an average of 0.684.

  • That change was a 39.5% improvement.

Detroit Lions 2023 Outlook

The Lions 2023 success depends on the continued improvement for the defense.

• Accounting for outliers (2-3 games that are multiples removed from the bounce envelope), the Lions were a top five scoring offense in all of football.

  • If they can maintain that, they will be a playoff contender.

• With continued improvement from the defense, the Lions should be considered a playoff contender.

  • Prior to their scheme changes, they went 1-3

  • After, they went 8-4.

  • Can they begin 2023 how they left off 2022?

The Detroit Lions have a “Proceed With Caution” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should use patience in order to figure out if the Lions are able to enter 2023 with an improved defense.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers Offensive Ranking

The Green Bay Packers will turn to Jordan Love. Here is what he will need to improve upon based on their Scoring Behavior (SBx):

The Packers Offense Started As A Risky Bet: Bounce Rate

The Green Bay Packers offense was not very consistent at the start of 2022. Many have chalked that up to Aaron Rodgers skipping OTAs and failing to build chemistry with the younger players. However, there were significant injuries on the offensive line that led to some players playing out of position. That got fixed ahead of Week 10.

• The Packers had a x3.2 bounce rate (“Stay Away”) through the first nine games of the 2022 season.

  • Ahead of Week 10, the Packers coaches made changes to the offensive line and got some players back from injury.

• From Week 10 on, the changes stabilized their performance with a x1.9 (“Safe Bet”).

  • That was a 40.5% improvement in consistency.

The Packers Got Better: SBx Rate

The Packers SBx:

• Was 0.503 points per minute of possession Weeks 1-9.

• Improved to 0.743 points per minute of possession in Weeks 10-18.

  • That was a 48% improvement.

  • 0.743 SBx would have ranked them 11th in the NFL, if carried out for 17 games.

Green Bay Packers Defensive Ranking

The Packers defense was problematic for most of the 2022 season. There was a lot of focus on Aaron Rodgers and the offense. But, it would be a mistake to gloss over the problems presented by the defensive performances.

Packers Defense Was A “Safe Bet” To Be Bad: Bounce Rate

The Packers defense was consistent, and a safe bet for bettors, week in and week out. Even if their performance was not great.

• Bounce rate of x2.2 was well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

• Had only three outliers:

  • Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears (0.4 SPBx)

  • Week 3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.5 SPBx)

  • Week 12 @ Philadelphia Eagles (1.4 SPBx)

H3: The Packers Were Consistent, But Bad: SPBx

The Packers SPBx:

• Regressed as the season went on.

  • Regression rate of 3% week over week.

• 0.735 points allowed per minute of opponent possession was the sixth worst in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers 2023 Outlook

The Packers 2023 success depends not just on Jordan Love to prove he can replace Rodgers, but also whether or not the defense can get better..

• 0.735 SPBx was the sixth worst in the league, and the probable reason they missed the playoffs.

• Jordan Love does not need to be MVP Aaron Rodgers, he just needs to be better than 2022 Rodgers, which was below average.

  • Overall SBx of 0.605 was 20th in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should use patience in order to figure out if the Packers are able to enter 2023 with an improved defense, and to discover what a Jordan Love-led offense will actually look like and develop into.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings Offensive Ranking

The Minnesota Vikings offense was both consistent, and a top performer.

The Vikings Offense Started As A Risky Bet: Bounce Rate

The Minnesota Vikings offense had an overall bounce rate of x3.5, which normally would get a “Stay Away” rating. But with context, we can see that the offense was actually quite consistent.

• The Vikings had a x1.7 bounce rate (“Safe Bet”) when accounting for two extreme outliers.

  • Week 2 @ Philadelphia Eagles

  • Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys

• A bounce rate of x1.7 would have ranked the Vikings as tied for the most consistent offense in the NFL.

The Vikings Offense Performed At A High Level: SBx Rate

The Vikings SBx:

• Was 0.922 points per minute of possession Weeks 1-9, when accounting for two extreme outliers.

• 0.922 SBx would have ranked number two in the NFL, behind only the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Ranking

The Vikings defense was problematic for most of the 2022 season. They had a great opening week performance, and then got worse from there.

Vikings Defense Was A “Safe Bet” To Be Bad: Bounce Rate

The Vikings defense was consistent, and a safe bet for bettors, week in and week out. Even if their performance was not great.

• Bounce rate of x2.4 was well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

• Had only two outliers:

  • Week 1 vs. Green Bay Packers (0.24 SPBx)

  • Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys (1.4 SPBx)

The Vikings Were Consistent, But Bad: SPBx

The Vikings SPBx:

• Regressed as the season went on.

  • Regression rate of 12% week over week.

• 0.731 points allowed per minute of opponent possession was the seventh worst in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings 2023 Outlook

A Lot of focus for the Minnesota Vikings is on Kirk Cousins and his future. Rather, it should be on the defense.

• 0.731 SPBx was the seventh worst in the league, and the probable reason they were in so many close games.

• The offense was one of the top scoring offenses in the NFL.

The Minnesota Vikings have a “Safe Bet” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should expect more of the same at the start of 2023 for the Vikings. The only question is what will the defense look like. If they improve, the Vikings could be a team to watch for.

Why Is This Valuable?

The data in this report is a small part of Football Behavior’s proprietary analytics and prediction modeling. This information not only helps coaches and players on the field, but also fans and especially sports bettors.

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• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

• How likely a team is to continue a certain trend

• How to bet off of two team trends who are competing head to head

• How a trend could impact the point spread

• How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

• With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)

What Does It All Mean?

In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or regressing. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration. Check out our glossary for a better understanding.

Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.

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