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Most Improved NFL Offenses Ranked
Every NFL Offense Ranked 1-32
Brett Yarris
July 17, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
It is important for sports bettors to know if teams are improving or regressing as a season goes on. Knowing which direction a team is trending can prove the difference in whether or not to risk money on them in a given week.
With behavior science we can measure that improvement, or regression, for offenses each and every week. In fact, Football Behavior does this at the overall team level with its proprietary “Football Improvement Index”, as well as focusing on each side of the ball, offense and defense.
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Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week
Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly
Key player prop predictions for all primetime games
Here are all 32 NFL offenses ranked by how they improved or regressed week to week in 2022, and what that means for 2023…
All 32 NFL Offenses Ranked According to Football Improvement Index
Key for reading the charts:
Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) Average
Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries (everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition)
Solid Black Line: Celeration trend.
The Five Worst Offenses
32. New York Jets
2022 Offensive Regression: 27%
Week over week, the Jets got worse by 27% in SBx.
The Jets should have stuck with Joe Flacco.
Flacco is the only quarterback that was trending up.
Zach Wilson’s seven starts saw a 72% regression week over week.
Mike White’s three starts saw a 94% regression week over week.
Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler saw a combined 66% regression over their final four games.
2023 Outlook: The Jets likely would have been a playoff team if they had even a modicum of competency at the quarterback position in 2022. The move for Aaron Rodgers and the migration of his 2021 Green Bay Packers environment to New Jersey will certainly be a massive upgrade over the disaster it is replacing.
31. Baltimore Ravens
2022 Defensive regression: 23%
Week over week, the Ravens got worse by 23% in SBx.
The offense was regressing with Lamar Jackson.
Prior to his season ending injury, the offense led by Lamar Jackson was regressing by 24% week over week through 11 games.
2023 Outlook: A lot of questions about the Ravens chances for success seemingly relied on the idea that with a healthy Lamar Jackson, they would have been ok. The offense was trending the wrong way even with Jackson. In 2023 he will be learning a new offense that asks him to be more of a spread passer than a power run quarterback. The answer to their success is dependent on whether or not he can adapt to the new environment effectively.
30. New Orleans Saints
2022 Offensive Regression: 22%
Week over week, the Saints got worse by 22% in SBx.
Andy Dalton was not the answer.
Once Andy Dalton took over in Week 4, the Saints offense regressed by 33%.
2023 Outlook: The Saints clearly realized the answer to their quarterback problem was not on the roster. The addition of Derek Carr will help them reverse this trend in 2023. Do not be surprised if the Saints are a dark horse team to make the postseason.
29. Cleveland Browns
2022 Offensive Regression: 20%
Week over week, the Browns got worse by 20% in SBx.
Inserting Deshaun Watson into the lineup was a disaster.
With Brissett as the starter, the Browns had an 0.726 SBx.
With Watson as the starter, the Browns had a 0.412 SBx, a 43% decrease.
2023 Outlook: Deshaun Watson looked every bit like a guy who hadn’t played NFL level football in two calendar years, besieged by a heinous scandal. The question for Browns is whether or not he can return to the form that enticed the Browns to sell out for the quarterback? It's unlikely they fully reverse the trend, but they can’t really be any worse heading into 2023.
28. Atlanta Falcons
2022 Offensive Regression: 15%
Week over week, the Falcons got worse by 15% in Scoring Behavior (SBx).
Desmond Ridder had some growing pains.
Before Ridder was named the starter, the offense had a 0.731 SBx
After Ridder was named the starter, the offense had a 0.54 SBx, a 25% decrease.
2023 Outlook: The Falcons had opportunities in the offseason to upgrade at quarterback, but they have decided to stick with Ridder. They are anticipating growth in his second year. How much growth can reasonably be expected though? It is unlikely they dramatically reverse the trend the finished 2022 on.
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The Other Teams Who REGRESSED
27. Tennessee Titans
Offensive Regression: 8%
26. Miami Dolphins
Offensive Regression: 8%
25. Buffalo Bills
Offensive Regression: 7%
24. Arizona Cardinals
Offensive Regression: 7%
23. Seattle Seahawks
Offensive Regression: 6%
22. Houston Texans
Offensive Regression: 5%
21. Las Vegas Raiders
Offensive Regression: 3%
20. Carolina Panthers
Offensive Regression: 2%
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The Teams Who Flatlined
19. Philadelphia Eagles
Offensive Improvement/Regression: 0%
18. Kansas City Chiefs
Offensive Improvement/Regression: 0%
17. Washington Commanders
Offensive Improvement/Regression: 0%
FYI: Upgrade NOW to get a 20% Early Bird Discount on Pigeon Picks and maximize the full potential of the betting model that hit 67% of the time with a 91.01% ROI!
Final score predictions for every game from the Football Prediction Model (67% hit rate in 2022, 91% ROI)
Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week
Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly
Key player prop predictions for all primetime games
The Teams Who Improved
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offensive Improvement: 1%
15. Los Angeles Chargers
Offensive Improvement: 2%
14. Chicago Bears
Offensive Improvement: 2%
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
Offensive Improvement: 3%
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Offensive Improvement: 6%
11. Los Angeles Rams
Offensive Improvement: 6%
10. New York Giants
Offensive Improvement: 6%
9. Minnesota Vikings
Offensive Improvement: 6%
8. New England Patriots
Offensive Improvement: 9%
7. Detroit Lions
Offensive Improvement: 10%
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Offensive Improvement: 12%
The Top Five Most Improved Offenses
5. Indianapolis Colts
2022 Offensive Improvement: 13%
Week over week, the Colts offense saw a 13% improvement in SBx.
The eight games prior to firing Frank Reich saw an average SBx of 0.335
Over the nine games following the replacement of Reich with Jeff Saturday, their SBx improved by 47% to 0.492.
2023 Outlook: Brand new coaching staff and offensive system for 2023, likely led by rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Expect growing pains along the learning curve, but the stability should provide continued improvement from the league basement of offensive performance behavior.
4. Green Bay Packers
2022 Offensive Improvement: 13%
Week over week, the Packers saw a 13.3% improvement in SBx.
After starting the season wildly inconsistent through the first nine games, they improved their stabilization by 40%.
Through the first nine games, their bounce rate was x3.2. Four of those games were below 0.5 points per minute of possession time. Five were 0.6 or better.
Their final eight games saw them stabilize with a bounce rate of x2.7, and every game they scored above 0.5 points per minute of possession time.
2023 Outlook: The Packers will have a major environmental change in 2023 as they transition from quarterback Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. Love has not gotten much playing time and it is expected to see the offense take a step back, at least through the early parts of 2023.
3. Denver Broncos
2022 Offensive Improvement: 14%
Week over week, the Broncos saw a 14% improvement in SBx.
After a steady performance deterioration through the first 12 games of the season, the combination of Russel Wilson getting removed from the 12/11/2022 game against the Chiefs, and the firing of head coach Nathaniel Hackett seemed to spark a massive improvement, in both Wilson and the offense.
Prior to the 12/11/2022 game against the Chiefs, the Broncos had only a 0.448 SBx through 12 games.
The final five weeks so a whopping 75% improvement to a 0.784 SBx.
2023 Outlook: The Broncos have a new head coach in Sean Payton for 2023. If he can figure out what changed in Wilson over the final five weeks of 2022 and continue to build, the Broncos offense could quickly go from a joke to mediocre.
2. Dallas Cowboys
2022 Offensive Improvement: 19%
Week over week, the Cowboys saw a 19% improvement in SBx.
The Cowboys were greatly aided by the return of Dak Prescott following his Week 1 injury.
In the five games started by Cooper Rush, the Cowboys had a 0.731 SBx.
In the 11 games to close the regular season started by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys had a 0.977 SBx, which was a 34% improvement.
2023 Outlook: The Cowboys look poised for another postseason run. Luckily the Prescott injury didn’t lead to a significant number of losses early in the season. With a fully healthy Prescott, the Cowboys should still be considered a lethal offense that may be even more explosive with Tony Pollard having a bigger role.
1. San Francisco 49ers
2022 Offensive Improvement: 20%
Week over week, the 49ers saw a 20% improvement in SBx.
Overcoming each quarterback injury with better replacement quarterback play was key.
In Trey Lance's lone game that he started and finished, the 49ers lost and he was abysmal, throwing for less than 200 yards and zero touchdowns. The offense had a 0.31 SBx.
Jimmy Garappolo doubled that SBx in his five starts prior to Christian McCaffery being traded for, with a 0.63 SBx.
Christian McCaffery took the offense to another level with a 13% SBx improvement in his six starts alongside Jimmy Garappolo, to 0.709 SBx.
Brock Purdy undoubtedly added another level once he replaced Garappolo. The offense took a whopping 40% leap in SBx improvement to 0.99.
2023 Outlook: It is wild that Kyle Shanahan did not win Coach of the Year for 2022. Every obstacle placed in their path, the 49ers offense came out better on the other side of it. As long as he is there, there is no reason to expect a substantial deterioration. Brock Purdy is likely to come back and start, and assuming full health, look to pick up where they left off.
Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings
50% of the NFL teams ranked in the top 10 made the playoffs
50% of the NFL teams ranked in the top 10 were impacted by changes at the quarterback position
50% of all NFL teams ranked saw offensive improvement throughout 2022
10 of those teams had a winning record
8 of those teams made the playoffs
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Upgrade NOW to get a 20% Early Bird Discount on Pigeon Picks and maximize the full potential of the betting model that hit 67% of the time with a 91.01% ROI!
Final score predictions for every game from the Football Prediction Model (67% hit rate in 2022, 91% ROI)
Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week
Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly
Key player prop predictions for all primetime games
What Does It All Mean?
In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or deteriorating. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration.
Once we know the rate of improvement, or deterioration, we can begin to tease out the causes for those rates. Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.
Why Is This Valuable?
This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:
How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
How a trend could impact the point spread
How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend
With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)
