MNF Behavior Profile

Week 10 comes to a close tonight with the Bills taking on the Broncos. Through yesterday’s games we have hit on 64% (16-9) of our Week 10 picks and if all goes according to plan, tonight we could add some more profit.

What’s In Here?

• MNF Behavior Profile and Prediction

• Week 10 Recap (Thursday Through Sunday)

  • Biggest Misses

  • Biggest Hits

• MNF QB Props

Week 10 MNF Behavior Profile and Prediction

Another week and another primetime game involving Josh Allen. Unfortunately for him and Bills fans, we have been pretty spot on in our behavior profiling of him and the team. For their sake, hopefully we’re wrong about this one.

• Week 10 MNF Prediction

Remember these two charts as you watch tonight’s game:

Week 10 Recap

The model went 16-9 starting with TNF and going through last night’s SNF. We had some big misses, and some games we nailed almost perfectly. On the positive, the games we told you were at high risk for outlier behavior were the ones we missed biggest on.

One thing we have been harping all season in this newsletter is the importance of environment on behavior, and how changes to the environment can produce changes in behavior, which make new environments very unpredictable.

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Biggest Misses

Jacksonville/San Francisco

• In yesterday’s newsletter we warned that we would learn about the return of Deebo Samuel to this 49ers offense, and that it made them somewhat unpredictable due to the change in environment that this represented. And after three games without him and a bye week, boy did they storm back to dominance, and we went 0-1 on our teaser bet for this game.

• Samuel had 59 total yards and a touchdown, but more than that, he opens the offense up for everyone else. Purdy finished with 296 yards and three passing touchdowns. Samuel helped the 49ers return to their previous behavior profile, something very hard to factor in to the projection based on three previous games. We now know how valuable he is.

• On defense, another factor we could not have predicted was the four Jacksonville turnovers. Two of them led to 14 49ers points. The niners defense was relentless all day, and was the perfect complement to the offense. A healthy 49ers team remains the best the NFC has to offer.

Baltimore/Cleveland

• We told you Cleveland’s defense was the biggest outlier in this game and why it had such a huge risk rating, leading us to tell you to avoid it altogether. We should have heeded our own advice. We went 1-1 on our bets, and were also way off on the score.

• We saw the inconsistency of the Cleveland defense thoroughly in this one. 10 first quarter points allowed, 24 points overall. On the flip side, they also had a pick-6 of their own late in the game that gave Cleveland hope in a game they had no business winning. Baltimore’s offense scored 24 points, we predicted 27, so not too far off. But the Browns’ defense kept getting their offense extra opportunities that they capitalized on. That, we did not plan for.

Honorable Mention

• Detroit/Los Angeles (0-2)

• Indianapolis/New England (1-2)

Biggest Hits

Pittsburgh/Green Bay

• This one was nailed almost perfectly. We projected an 18-16 Steelers win, with the offense providing some variance. And that is how it played out. Packers scored 19, just three off of our projected 16, while the Steelers scored more than 21 points for just the third time all season, coming in 5 points off of our projection.

• We went 3-0 on this game hitting the UNDER 42.5 and the Packers covering +6.5.

  • Packers +6.5 ✅

  • UNDER 42.5 Total ✅

  • Teaser ✅

    • Packers +6.5 💰

    • UNDER 42.5 💰

New York/Las Vegas (SNF)

• Another SNF where the teams behaved almost exactly as predicted. The Raiders finished one point short of our projected 17 points. We said that last week’s performance against the Giants should not be the expectation and that they would struggle against the Jets. They did.

• As for the Jets, we noted in out article that driving the ball into enemy territory and surrendering a turnover was now part of their behavior profile. Well, that came too true in last night’s game when with under 1:30 left in the game and the Jets in the red zone to take the lead, which would have given them the exact 19 points we projected them to have, Zach Wilson threw what would prove to be a game-sealing interception.

• We hit on all three of our straight bets, and the first leg of a three leg UnderDog Fantasy play involving QB passing yard props.

  • Jets UNDER 21.5 ✅

  • Jets UNDER 20.5 ✅

  • Game UNDER 40.5 ✅

  • Zach Wilson HIGHER 205.5 Passing Yards ✅

Honorable Mention

• Minnesota/New Orleans (2-0)

• Carolina/Chicago (TNF: 2-1)

MNF QB Props (Pigeon Picks Exclusive)

This was put in yesterday’s newsletter, but as a refresher for those who may want to do something separate from our UnderDog Fantasy play tonight.

Josh Allen

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