Insanity Of Week 3

Why We Don't Believe In The Eagles

Author

Brett Yarris
September 26, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

What’s In Here?

  • Eduational Resources

  • Quantifying the Crazy

  • MNF Recap

  • Why We Don’t Believe In Philly, Yet

Educational Resources:

Quantifying The Crazy

Last night wrapped up a miserable Week 3 for sports bettors. In fact, it was one of the flukiest weeks in recent memory. Here are some of the biggest outliers from Week 3, and perhaps will be the biggest outliers of the 2023 season.

  • In 2022, there were over 32,000 plays run across the 32 NFL teams.

    • 0.001% of them were defensive touchdowns.

      • There have already been 8 defensive touchdowns through three weeks of 2023 play.

    • 0.0004% of them were safeties.

      • There were three safeties in 2023 Week 3 alone

  • There were six kickoff returns total in 2022

    • There were two in 2023 Week 3 alone

  • There were three punt return touchdowns in 2022

    • There have already been three through 2023 Week 3

  • The Bengals had gone three seasons without 5+ sacks and 2+ interceptions in a single game

    • Last night they recorded 6 sacks and 2 interceptions

  • The Rams entered the game having only allowed 1 sack through 2 games in 2023

    • In Week 3 alone they surrendered 6

  • The Bills recorded nine sacks and five takeaways in Week 3

    • That was the first time they did that since 1963

    • Only one team has recorded 9+ sacks and 5+ takeaways since 2000

  • The Dolphins scored 70 points in Week 3

    • No teams has scored 70+ points in over five decades

Outliers happen. When we started the season we reminded everyone that the first three weeks of an NFL season are the most unpredictable of the season. The teams are still trying to figure out their identities and are experimenting with different styles to figure out what works.

Even still, this past week was among the biggest outlier weeks in recent memory. Thankfully, they are outliers for a reason and we expect to continue beating the market as the model learns more and more about these team’s behavior!

MNF Recap

Game 1:

  • Projected Score

    • Eagles 23, Bucs 20

  • Actual Score

    • Eagles 25, Bucs 11

  • Eagles ML ✅

  • Eagles By 7-12 ❌

What Happened?

  • We perfectly predicted the Eagles offense to score 23 points. Had that been all the points the Eagles score, we would have hit both the ML, and the ditched winning margins (7-12).

  • The Eagles defense recorded a safety, and the extra two points put them at a 14 point margin costing us the 7-12 winning margin

Game 2:

  • Projected Score

    • Rams 24, Bengals 18

  • Actual Score

    • Rams 16, Bengals 19

  • Rams +3 🫸 PUSH

  • Bengals 1-6 ✅

What Happened?

  • We nearly perfectly predicted the Bengals final score, missing by only one point.

  • We predicted more from the Rams offense based on previous behavior.

    • Coming into the game they had only yielded one sack

    • In Week three they yielded six sacks

    • Was the first time in 3 seasons that the Bengals defense had a game in which they recorded 5+ sacks and 2+ interceptions

Receipts:

Why We Don’t Believe in Philly, Yet

In a week of extreme outliers, perhaps no team has benefitted more from them through the first three weeks of the season than the Philadelphia Eagles. Lets review their first three weeks of the season:

  • Week 1

    • Eagles offense is out scored by the Patriots Offense, 20-18

    • Eagles defense records a pick-6 to win the game 25-18

    • Defense faces a below average (SBx) Patriots offense

  • Week 2

    • Eagles Defense recovers four fumbles lost by the Vikings offense, giving the offense four extra possessions

    • The Offense only gets 10 points off of those four extra possessions, in a game they won by six

    • Defense faces an above average (Six) offense and surrenders 28 points in 20 minutes for an SBx of 1.4 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time

  • Week 3

    • Eagles offense is given three extra possessions and two points by the defense recording an interception, a fumble recovery and a safety

    • Eagles offense turns those three extra possessions into only six points

    • Defense faces a below average (SBx) offense

Let’s start with the Eagles defense. Last year we believed, and the behavioral data showed that they were overrated. They beat up on offenses with poor scoring behavior, and struggled mightily against top offenses with excellent scoring behavior.

The difference in their own score prevention behavior, based on who they played, led to league leading volatility. They had a x3.4 bounce rate* week to week. This means their next performance could fall with in a range of 3.4 multiples from the week before. That was by far the most volatile for any defense in the league without any outliers.

They faced only four teams in 2022 with a top 10 ranking in Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx)*. Those four games, including the Super Bowl, were four of their worst five games of 2022.

So far, in 2023, they have faced two very below average offenses, and one above average offense, as we laid out above. If the trend holds, as it appears it is, the defense could still be a liability against better teams. Unlike last year’s schedule, they still have to face six more top 10 SBx teams from 2022, all of which seem headed that way again in 2023.

*Refer to our glossary of terms for assistance on terminology or how to read the charts

Something else different from 2022 to 2023, is the offense. We predicted before the season that offense and Jalen Hurts were poised to take a step back in performance behavior due to the environmental change of a new coordinator, who himself was fairly new.

In 2022, while the defense struggled against quality offenses, the Eagles offense was averaging an SBx of 0.925 points per minute of possession time. That was good enough for second in the NFL.

The Eagles went 2-2 in four games against top 10 SBx teams, because although they gave up 30+ points each time, the offense was strong enough in all four games, win or lose, to score 30+ points of their own.

That is not the case in 2023. The offense is well of their 0.925 SBx average of 2022. In 2023, they are averaging an SBx of 0.668, a 39% regression from 2022. They have yet to face quality teams in 2023, and the one team they did face fumbled the ball away an astounding four times in the game against the Eagles, and still almost came back to win it.

The Eagles offense is in a deep regression from 2022, the defense is still struggling against quality offenses, and they are benefitting greatly from outliers that, to put it mildly, are not sustainable. Unless we some changes in the next few weeks, we simply do not believe the Eagles to be a true 2023 contender, just yet.