FULL WEEK 2 PIGEON PICKS RECAP

Week 2 is in the books and the Pigeon Picks sports betting model continues to turn a profit! We appreciate all of our subscribers and hope that if you tailed us you are enjoying the success! Still a long season ahead, and the model should only get sharper from here.

What To Expect In Today’s Newsletter:

• 2-Game Monday Night Football Prediction

• Full Recap Of Week 2’s Stats For the Model

• Football Behavior Science Lesson Of The WEEK

• Monday Night Football QB Props For Pigeon Picks Subscribers

LET’S LINE IT UP!

Monday Night Football Preview

Monday Night Football Prediction

• MNF QB Props At Bottom Of This Newsletter

  • 7-3 Record Through WEEK 2 SNF

Week 2 Recap: Through Sunday Night Football

*Stats below reflect ONLY bets placed by the Pigeon Picks Model

Week 2 ROI: +38.21%✅💰💵🤑

Week 2 Record: 29-14-1 ✅ (66% Hit Rate)

• Moneyline: 10-3

• Spread: 6-6-1

• Dutching: 11-3

  • Every Dutch bet “win” will have one win against two losses IN THE PIKKIT RECORD, with the one win producing an overall profit.

  • Because Dutching is a model-curated “cluster” bet of three selected winning margins based on likely outcomes, with only one winning margin of the three needed to turn a profit, hitting any one of the three is recorded here as a win, because profit making is all that matters when discussing “record”.

• Primetime QB Props: 2-2

Overall 2023 Record: 55-28-1 (65.4% Hit Rate)*

*Through Week 2 Sunday Night Football

(If you are already a Pigeon Picks Subscriber, no need to click above)

Final Score Predictions

Biggest Hit: Packers vs. Falcons

Projected Score: Packers, 24, Falcons 24

Actual Score: Packers 24, Falcons 25

MOE: ±0.5

• What happened?

  • Both teams on both sides of their matchups did just about as expected in terms of overall Football Behavior, sticking to their profiles

Runners Up

Bears vs. Buccaneers

Projected Score: Bears 20, Buccaneers 25

Actual Score: Bears 17, Buccaneers 27

MOE: ±2.5

Dolphins vs. Patriots

Projected Score: Dolphins 24, Patriots 22

Actual Score: Dolphins 24, Patriots 17

MOE: ±2.5

Biggest Miss: Commanders vs. Broncos

Projected Score: Commanders 18, Broncos 18

Actual Score: Commanders 35, Broncos 33

MOE: ±16

• What happened?

  • We projected a virtual tie between these two teams, and we nearly got it. A last second Hail Mary touchdown, followed by a failed two point conversion left us with a Commanders victory (Who we picked against the spread).

  • What we didn’t project was the onslaught of early points from the Broncos offense which completely changed the game flow. It forced the Commanders to play with increased pace and aggression. When they caught up, as the Broncos regressed to the mean mid game, the Broncos were left to increase pace at the end.

  • What we learned is that when playing at the same pace, both teams are neck and neck, as the Pigeon Picks model predicted.

Week 2 Football Behavior Tip

Study the impact, or lack there of, of individual outliers. Our strongest bets are along the moneyline with the Pigeon Picks Prediction model. In the course of a game many outliers can alter the pathway of how we get there, but few actually change the inevitable result.

To beat a team who behaviorally should win, it seems to take more than one outlier. Think multiple turnovers and/or a defensive or special teams score.

So as a game is unfolding, look to see how the team predicted to win responds to these outliers and what if any impact it has on their overall behavioral momentum.

Take last night’s Sunday Night Football for example. We predicted the Dolphins to win by as many as 12 points, with a two point win being the most likely. The Dolphins scored the exact amount of points we predicted and they won by 7, the exact median between the ceiling of 12, and most likely outcome of 2.

The Patriots performed two outlier events: they secured one turnover and separately blocked a field goal.

And still, it wasn’t enough to alter the likely inevitable outcome of a Miami victory. Miami’s behavioral momentum was undeterred.

• After they had their field goal blocked, the defense immediately went out and got the ball back with an interception of their own.

• After Tua threw an interception, the next time the offense got the ball back, they scored a touchdown.

Previous behavior, and its reinforcement (what happens after the behavior to reward or punish it) is the strongest predictor of future behavior. When the model predicts a team to win, it is these things (behaviors and responses to those behaviors) that it focuses on, and why our predictions of winners is so strong.

Simply put, Behavior Science for the win…literally.

MNF QB Prop Picks

Derek Carr

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.