Football Behavior Guide: Super Bowl Edition

Why the Chiefs WILL win, and how the Eagles CAN

Author

Brett Yarris
February 04, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

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Table of Contents

We have analyzed the behavior of each of these teams, from everything from Passing behavior, to rushing behavior, turnover behavior, points off of turnover behavior, and more.

This publication is fully independent and, a one man show in terms of data collection. Therefore, for the Super Bowl, I am able to go even deeper into behavioral analysis for two teams than I am for 32 teams.

So, not only will our subscribers be getting final score projections, but we will be giving Passing Behavior projections and analysis, Rushing Behavior projections and analysis, Turnover Behavior projections and analysis, and scoring scenario projections and analysis.

The latter is brand new this year, and we will look at scenarios such as the impact of turnovers, and more importantly, points off of turnovers.

Let’s Line It Up!

Passing Behavior Analysis

The behavioral profile for this phase of the game favors the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. How the Chiefs behave passing the ball is essentially the behavior the Eagles allow opponents when they pass the ball against them.

Additionally, the Eagles passing offense has seen a large decline, and while not the Chiefs strong suit on defense, still something they're quite good at. If the Eagles find themselves needing to pass to win, they will lose.

Chiefs Passing Offense vs. Eagles Passing Defense

The question of Quarterback edge in this game does not need to be asked. It’s Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

But how predictable is this matchup between he and the Eagles passing defense?

On the season, the Chiefs averaged 7.6 passing yards per minute of possession time. The Eagles allowed 7.046 passing yards per minute of possession time.

They are essentially only separated by a half yard/min, and at the Chiefs projected time of possession in this game by 10 yards when it is all said and done.

The Eagles did not improve or regress week to week up through this point, and have quite a low bounce rate of x2.1 in this category.

The Chiefs passing game has an even lower, more consistent bounce rate of x1.9. And they improved week to week this season in this category, entering this game on a 3% rate of improvement.

Chiefs Total Pass Yards Projection:

  • 212 Passing Yards (Inclusive of yards lost to sacks)

Chiefs Passing Yards/Min Projection:

  • 7.323 Passing Yards/Min

Chiefs Passing Touchdowns Projection:

  • 1.3 Passing Touchdowns

Chiefs Interceptions Thrown Projection:

  • 0.65 Interceptions

The passing game edge goes to the Chiefs, and we project them to have 212 yards in almost 29 minutes of possession time. Mahomes I'll likely throw for at least one touchdown, with an opportunity for two, to go along with as many as one interception.

This projection has a high degree of confidence given the consistent bounce rates on both sides of the matchup have in this category.

The highest degree of confidence is in the expected passing yards per min of 7.3, with the total of 212 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception being effected by the final time of possession for the Chiefs.

Eagles Passing Offense vs. Chiefs Passing Defense

The Eagles passing yards per minute of possession time has been on 14% regression week over week since the start of the season.

That was the largest regression of any team with a consistent starter at Quarterback in the league.

However, I would say that it would be unfair to read that as an indictment on Jalen Hurts. This regression coincides with the emergence of Saquon Barkley and the rushing game being insanely effective.

Kellen Moore has done a good job of recognizing that reality and leaning on what works.

That said, this is not the game to suddenly need a passing game that has been a back seat passenger all season.

Consider these numbers for Philly in the Passing game:

  • 14% regression in yards per min, week to week

    • 18% regression since the Week 5 bye week

  • 9 out of their last 12 games have been below 0.6 passing yards per min.

    • 7 below 0.5 passing yards per min

    • 4 out of their last 7 below 0.4 passing yards per min.

The Chiefs passing defense, on the other hand, was about league average but finished the season on a strong note in a week to week improvement of 5%.

In 7 of their last 10 games they have held their opponents to under 7 pass yards per minute of opponent possession time. This feels like the ideal behavioral matchup for them.

And like everything else Kansas City does, they are wildly consistent at this with just a x1.6 bounce rate.

Eagles Total Pass Yards Projection:

  • 146 Passing Yards

Eagles Passing Yards/Min Projection:

  • 5.15 Passing Yards/Min

Eagles Passing Touchdown Projection:

  • 0.96 Passing Touchdowns

The Eagles project to have less than 150 passing yards, in a close game. If they fall behind early, expect that total to go up, and for them to lose.

Jalen Hurts projects to have about one passing touchdown and is unlikely to throw an interception.

We give these projections a high degree of confidence though not as high as the other side of this matchup. While the Chiefs defense has been extremely consistent, the Eagles offense has a x2.4 bounce rate in this category.

Added to that, the Eagles have fewer pathways to controlling the game, and are the team likely in need of adapting their strategy, which could inflate these numbers.

Rushing Behavior Analysis

The edge in this matchup is obvious. We can unequivocally say the Eagles will end up with more rushing yards than the Chiefs.

The question here is not about who, but how?

Each of these teams behave in the rushing game very differently. For Philadelphia, is is their bread a butter. It is the foundation of everything they do.

For the Chiefs, it is merely the small knife they cut you with to start the bleeding, while they finish you off in other ways.

Both serve an important and necessary function to their teams. But one is much easier to survive without, than the other.

Eagles Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs Rushing Defense

The Eagles rushing attack is devastating. 3 yard body blows, 8 yard demoralizers, and the more frequent than you would think, 60+ yard finishers.

The Eagles offensive line combined with Saquon Barkley’s electricity is a devastating combination.

Consider this: The Eagles are the only team in the NFL to have their total rushing yards come within 800 yards of their total passing yards. In fact, they came within 150 yards of their total passing yards.

Unlike the Ravens, the rushing attack is everything to Philadelphia. Baltimore, for example. finished number 1 in both Total rushing yards, rushing yards per game.

And their passing attack still finished with nearly 1,000 yards more than Philadelphia’s.

This over-reliance on the rushing game is a double edged sword for Philadelphia. And it is this matchup that will likely define the fate of this game.

Consider this:

  • 13 of the last 14 games for Philadelphia saw them rush for over 5 yards per minute of possession time.

  • 12 of the last 13 games for Kansas City saw them hold opponents under 5 yards per minute of opponent possession time

    • 9 of them were under 4 yards per minute

    • Only allowed 5 rushing yards per minute twice all season

Now, where the Eagles can and should look to take advantage is the trends. Philly is seeing 3% growth week to week in their rushing behavior. The Chiefs defense is seeing an 18% regression week to week in allowing rushing yards.

The Eagles should look to exploit that and hope that trend stays true. That said, it comes with a caveat:

  • Even with that 18% regression, the Chiefs are projected to give up less than what the Eagles average.

  • And when you consider that in 5 of the Eagles last six games they haven’t gotten above 6 rushing yards per minute, It could be tougher to rely only on the run.

The Chiefs are projected to give up more rushing yards than they typically do, but it may not be enough to make the difference Philly needs.

Eagles Total Rush Yards Projection:

  • 159 rushing yards

Eagles Rush Yards/Min Projection:

  • 5.5 Rush Yards/Min

Eagles Rushing Touchdown Projection:

  • 1.33 Rushing Touchdowns

Chiefs Rushing Offense vs. Eagles Rushing Defense

Unlike their counter parts, the Chiefs rushing offense does not exist to be the foundation of their offense.

Instead, it serves as their changeup pitch. They use it just enough to ensure you have to think about it and be ready for it, but shutting it down doesn't necessarily take them out of the game.

As far as rushing yards per minute of possession time are concerned, they are regressing by 5% week to week, though did have their 4th highest performance of the season against the Bills in the AFC Championship game.

This highlights a stark difference from the Eagles, as they only had three games this season of having over 5 rushing yards per minute, where the Eagles have done it in 13 of their last 14.

The Eagles defense has actually been regressing by 7% week over week in allowing opponent rushing yards per minute. Except for their first two games of the season, they have yet to allow an opponent to rush for over 5 yards per minute.

We expect this matchup to go as expected without any surprises. Expect the Chiefs to do a bit better at gaining rushing yards than they typically do, but don’t expect fire works in that regard.

Also expect it to continue the yards accumulation to be shared between Hunt, Pacheco and Mahomes.

Chiefs Total Rushing Yards Projection:

  • 102 Total Rushing Yards

Chiefs Rush Yards/Min Projection:

  • 3.55 Rushing Yards/Min

Chiefs Rushing Touchdown Projection:

  • 0.905 Rushing Touchdowns

Turnover Behavior Analysis

This matchup, above all others, is going to be the key to the game. The Eagles don’t really have a realistic pathway to victory that doesn’t involve forcing turnovers AND scoring points off of them.

That last part is the key. It isn’t enough for the Eagles to just force turnovers. They must score points off of them as well. That has been the key to their success this season.

Consider this for the Eagles:

  • Points off of a turnover is defined as points scored by the defense, or by the offense immediately following an interception, fumble recovery, and turnovers on downs.

    • The vast majority of those drives (>90%) cover less than 60 yards

  • The Eagles have played 20 games this season

    • They have scored points off of turnovers in 14 of them

    • In 10 of those games, the amount of points they scored off of turnovers was equal to or greater than their margin of victory in that game

    • Over their last 13 games they are averaging 7.8 points per game off of turnovers (based on their average time of possession)

    • They’ve scored 153 points off of turnovers in 13 of their last 14 games

      • That was a 1/3 of their entire points scored for the whole season

      • They’ve scored 116 points off of turnovers in their last 10 games

Now, the Eagles won’t be playing in a vacuum. Consider this for the Chiefs defense:

  • The Chiefs only allowed points to per scored off of their own turnovers 7 times total in 19 games

    • They’ve only surrendered 10 points off of turnovers TOTAL in their last 10 games

The Eagles NEED to create turnovers and then score off of them.

They’ll be facing a Chiefs team that simply doesn't give up point in those situations.

So, will the Eagles get their chances?

Eagles Interceptions Thrown Projection:

  • 0.57 Interceptions

Eagles Fumbles Lost Projection:

  • 0.51 Fumbles Lost

Chiefs Interceptions Thrown Projection:

  • 0.65 Interceptions

Chiefs Fumbles Lost Projection:

  • 0.997 Fumbles Lost

It appears the Eagles will have a chance at forcing as many as two turnovers in this game. They’ll need to score off of those, and then ensure the Chiefs don’t force their own turnovers (appears they could force one) and don’t score off of it either.

Scoring Behavior Analysis

This is the only thing that matters: scoring more points than your opponent.

Everything to this point has been factored into what follows:

Our official final score projection, with alternate scores based on certain events.

As we mentioned in that last section, this game will come down to two very important factors for the Eagles:

  1. Forcing multiple turnovers and scoring points off of them

  2. Rushing for more than 165 yards

That has been their key to scoring points. If they fail to do either of those, they will likely lose. They have been the more inconsistent team, and have relied on the most outliers to get here.

The Chiefs on the other hand have been consistent as usual and are strong in the areas the Eagles need them to be weak at:

  1. Not turning the ball over, and not allowing points when they do

  2. Rushing defense

Kansas City again finished in the top 10 in yards per rush, and finished in the top 3 for rush yards per min allowed.

The Eagles defense will need to pressure Mahomes, but what makes their pass rush so special is their interior rush. And unlike most teams, the Chiefs have two of the best interior offensive lineman in the game with Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith.

Ultimately, everything favors the Chiefs winning in a one score game.

So, without further ado:

Final Score Projection:

  • Chiefs 24-Eagles 20

This projection assumes each team behaves as they typically would on dives that follow a kickoff or a punt, requiring 60+ yards for a score.

It also assumes each team behaves as they typically would on drives following a turnover. We looked at scoring behavior for each matchup on drives that followed an interception, fumble or turnover on downs.

We did this for each offense AND each defense. All things considered, this is the most likely final score for this year’s Super Bowl. The Chiefs are very consistent and have been very predictable all season.

The Eagles have been much less consistent and have a real game breaker in Barkley. In a one score game, just one play can turn the tide.

Alt. Score Projection 1

If there are no turnovers, in a completely clean game:

  • Chiefs 22-Eagles 17

Alt. Score Projection 2

If ONLY the Eagles behave typically in forcing turnovers, but each team behaves typically thereafter:

  • Chiefs 22-Eagles 20

As you can see, the Eagles will need to have an outlier type of game (think the conference championship game vs. the Commanders). And we know it’s something they are capable of producing, having forced 11 fumbles in their last five games.

But this is the big stage, and no one is more prepared to limit their mistakes than the Kansas City Chiefs. Not that it can’t be done, but that is the pathway for the Eagles, and it is a narrow one.

That said, expect the Chiefs to make history as the first 3-peat Super Bowl champion.

Pigeon Picks:

  • Chiefs ML (-120)

  • Chiefs -1 (-110)

  • Jalen Hurts UNDER 210.5 Passing Yards (-115)

  • Saquon Barkley OVER 110.5 Rushing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes UNDER 250.5 Passing Yards

  • Square- Final Score Chiefs 4, Eagles 0 (+3000)

  • Dutching:

    • Chiefs win by 1-6

    • Chiefs win by 7-12

    • Eagles win by 1-6