FINAL RANKINGS

Where Did Each Team Finish

Author

Brett Yarris
February 20, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

If You’re Short On Time…

  • 13 of the teams inside of the Top-15 in Scoring Behavior Rate made the playoffs, including 10 of the Top-11

  • The Top-3 Playoff teams in Score Prevention Behavior Rate played on Conference Championship Sunday

  • The Panthers were the worst team in football

  • The Rams were the most consistent team over the course of the season

    • They had the most consistent scoring behavior

    • They had the third most consistent score prevention behavior

  • The Top-2 teams in Total Team Behavior Score from each conference met in the Super Bowl

    • The 49ers were first overall

    • The Chiefs were third overall

Total Team Behavior Score

This Metric is the authoritative ranking for how we view teams during and after the season. It is a combined score factoring in our three main metrics:

  • Margin For Error: differential between average scoring (SBx) and score prevention behavior (SPBx) rates

  • Improvement Index: rates of OVERALL Team week to week improvement or regression across both SBx and SPBx

  • Consistency Score: Bounce Rates measuring each team’s consistency of performance in both SBx and SPBx

Total Team Behavior Score accounts for all three areas and is a truly objective measure of week to week performance over the course of the entire season in what matters most to the outcome of an NFL game: Scoring.

Rather than just being rewarded for averages, you are also rewarded for your growth throughout the season, as well as your internal makeup with how consistent you are week in and week out across all the different environments.

If we were to be asked “which NFL teams had the best overall seasons?”, this list is what we would provide them. In parentheses you will find their rankings, in the order above, for each of the three components.

It should be noted that their ranking in this list is not an average of their rankings in the criterion, but the result of a mathematical formula using the precise measurements of their performance data.

Their precise Margin For Error is the starting point, then their Improvement Index (a percentage) is put in, which will either be an overall improvement or regression, and then finally their consistency is weighed in. Win-Loss is not factored in at all.

You are rewarded mostly for having a high Margin For Error, overall Team Improvement throughout the season, and for being consistent on both sides of the ball in your week to week performances.

  1. 49ers (1, 24, 4)

  2. Rams (8, 7, 1)

  3. Chiefs (2, 11, 7)

  4. Buccaneers (7, 10, 3)

  5. Ravens (3, 16, 18)

  6. Cowboys (4, 5, 20)

  7. Saints (10, 2 , 17)

  8. Bills (5, 25, 10)

  9. Texans (9, 15, 5)

  10. Packers (13, 20, 2)

  11. Lions (15, 6, 6)

  12. Broncos (11, 13, 11)

  13. Seahawks (12 ,12,15

  14. Dolphins (6, 30, 22)

  15. Colts (14, 23, 21)

  16. Falcons (20, 4, 26)

  17. Steelers ( 24, 8, 9)

  18. Eagles (21, 26, 14)

  19. Bengals (24, 3, 24)

  20. Bears (25, 9, 19)

  21. Jaguars (22, 22, 8)

  22. Browns (18, 19, 27)

  23. Chargers (16, 29, 24)

  24. Vikings (19, 31, 22)

  25. Cardinals (28, 17, 13)

  26. Titans (26, 21, 17)

  27. Raiders (17, 14, 31)

  28. Jets (27, 27, 29)

  29. Commanders (30, 28, 12)

  30. Patriots (29, 18, 32)

  31. Giants (31, 1, 28)

  32. Panthers (32, 32, 30)

Margin For Error Score

As explained here, this metric is used to determine how margin for error a team is playing with based on taking the difference of how many points the score per minute, and how many they give up per minute, relative to respective possession times.

It is more precise than standard “power rankings” as it uses a purely objective measure, and measures only the behavior occurring during ball possession.

Each of the last two years, the top two teams following conference championship weekend met in the Super Bowl. Here is how every team finished FOLLOWING the Super Bowl, with their Scoring Behavior rate, followed by Score Prevention Behavior Rate, Ranking next to their name in parentheses:

  1. 49ers (1, 6)

  2. Chiefs (12, 1)

  3. Ravens (7, 5)

  4. Cowboys (3, 16)

  5. Bills (5, 9)

  6. Dolphins (6, 10)

  7. Buccaneers (9, 8)

  8. Rams (4, 27)

  9. Texans (10, 14)

  10. Saints (17, 7)

  11. Broncos (13, 15)

  12. Seahawks (8, 26)

  13. Packers (11, 24)

  14. Colts (15, 21)

  15. Lions (2, 31)

  16. Chargers (22, 11)

  17. Raiders (28, 2)

  18. Browns (21, 17)

  19. Vikings (20, 23)

  20. Falcons (23, 13)

  21. Eagles (14, 29)

  22. Jaguars (20, 28)

  23. Bengals (24, 22)

  24. Steelers (26, 18)

  25. Bears (25, 19)

  26. Titans (27, 20)

  27. Jets (30, 3)

  28. Cardinals (18, 30)

  29. Patriots (31, 4)

  30. Commanders (16, 32)

  31. Giants (29, 12)

  32. Panthers (32, 25)

Football Behavior Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a way behaviorists measure the overall improvement between two competing behaviors. In this case, we are measuring the overall improvement for teams in scoring points vs allowing points, week to week over the course of the season.

To do this we are looking at week to week celeration rates in Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior (the two competing behaviors: you can’t score points simultaneous to giving them up, and you want to be increasing the former and decreasing the latter).

Once we have those rates, we put them into a mathematical formula that gives us an overall percentage of total team improvement, week to week. Below are the teams ranked from most improved, to most regressed, with their SBx improvement percentage and their SPBx improvement percentage in the parentheses.

  1. Giants (1, 4)

  2. Saints (3, 7)

  3. Bengals (2, 19)

  4. Falcons (7, 8)

  5. Cowboys (10, 9)

  6. Lions (8, 14)

  7. Rams (9, 20)

  8. Steelers (5, 22)

  9. Bears (17, 5)

  10. Buccaneers (4, 25)

  11. Chiefs (14, 15)

  12. Seahawks (15, 11)

  13. Broncos (22, 6)

  14. Raiders (24, 2)

  15. Texans (13,21)

  16. Ravens (19, 12)

  17. Cardinals (11, 26)

  18. Patriots* (20, 13)

  19. Browns* (6, 32)

  20. Packers* (12, 30)

  21. Titans* (16, 25)

  22. Jaguars* (19, 27)

  23. Colts* (26, 17)

  24. 49ers* (16, 31)

  25. Bills* (21, 28)

  26. Eagles* (23, 23)

  27. Jets* (30, 10)

  28. Commanders* (27, 24)

  29. Chargers* (31, 3)

  30. Dolphins* (29, 18)

  31. Vikings* (28, 29)

  32. Panthers* (32, 1)

*Denotes Teams Who Regressed Week to Week overall during the season

Inisghts

  • The 49ers week in and week out were the class of the NFL. The only reason they didn’t win the Super Bowl, and why before the playoffs began we predicted the Chiefs to beat them, was because of their trends and the week to week regression of their defense.

  • The Panthers were by far the worst overall team in the league. What is crazy is that they were the most improved defense week to week this season, but the regression of their offense was so bad that it made them the overall most regressed team in the league. Lots of issues to fix in Carolina.

  • The Rams and Bucs had the best seasons this year, and one of those coaches should have won coach of the year. Both were left for dead at the start, and both advanced through the post season. We ranked them higher than everyone all season because we could see their true behavior.

  • For the second consecutive year the top two teams from each conference in our Total Team Behavior Score played each other in the Super Bowl, and the team with the best momentum won. Remember, momentum is real, and we account for it in our metrics.

  • Offense still rules the day. Scoring points gets you to the playoffs, but once there, you better have a good defense too. 13 of the top 15 scoring teams made the playoffs, and the top two score prevention teams among those teams played in the Super Bowl.

Coming Next Week…

  • Each team’s EXACT numbers that went into their rankings in the above metrics and hopefully some good news as we head to the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, our favorite even of the year!