Pigeon Picks | Vol. 1, No. 2

After last week’s first Pigeon Pick was made in the NFL Opening Kickoff game between the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs, I decided to start digging in to each of other Week 1 point spreads.

One really jumped out at me: Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+1).

Today, I will make the actual betting pick from the model, plus analysis, available to everyone because it’s something to monitor as preseason carries on.

Bettors need to act fast because the value for this bet will likely disappear once we get the next injury update on Joe Burrow.

Reminder: Only Pigeon Picks subscribers will get the actual final score prediction, as well as this game’s risk report. Only primetime games are free for base-level newsletter subscribers.

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Joe Burrow Will Be Back Week 1

Lets start off by stating, that unless there is a very rare set back, Joe Burrow will be the starting quarterback for the Bengals Week 1.

On July 27th, during a routine drop back in training camp, Burrow came up lame as he tried to navigate the pocket. The worst was feared, but as it turns out, Burrow only had a Grade 1 calf strain, which is really good news. He is likely out for 3-4 weeks.

That means, unless there is a massive setback somehow, Burrow will be back 2-3 weeks BEFORE the Bengals take on the Browns Week 1.

Don’t just take my word for it. One of the injury experts I trust the most, Deepak Chona, MD. (@SportMDAnalysis), also believes Burrow will be back Week 1.

Where’s The Value?

Prior to Burrow’s injury, the line on this game according to DraftKings was Bengals -2.5. I believe even that line was much too narrow. However, following Burrow’s injury, the line has moved.

Now, the line is set at Bengals -1. There are two ways to approach this.

If you believed the Bengals were going to win…

before Burrow’s injury, you were already ok with the 2.5 point spread. Few games are decided by less than 3 points. So if you think the Bengals were going to win, it was most likely going to be by at least a field goal. Giving the 2.5 points to the Browns is no big deal, easy cover.

With that logic in mind, if the line moves closer to the Browns, and the only reason is an injury to Burrow that he will return from, taking the Bengals at -1 is even more of a no brainer.

If You Believed The Browns Were Going To Cover…

This should concern you and give you pause. Little more than a week ago you were playing a 2.5 point margin of error. That margin has evaporated to what is essentially a pick ‘em, based on how final scores in the NFL tend to work.

We’d advise staying away from the spread on this game, unless you were to pair it with a Browns moneyline win.

But, Can The Browns Win?

It is the NFL. Anything can happen. But I truly am shocked the spread is this tight.

The Bengals were a last second Joseph Ossai roughing the passer penalty away from forcing overtime in the AFC Championship game. They remain an AFC championship contender heading into 2023.

The Browns went 7-10 and got worse as the year went on.

According to our Football Behavior Analytics, the Bengals ranked 6th in Margin Of Error Score, 3rd in the Football Behavior Improvement Index, and ranked as the 3rd safest team to bet on in 2022.

The Browns ranked 23rd in Margin Of Error Score, 23rd in the Improvement Index, and ranked as the 14th safest team to bet on in 2022.

Last Year’s Head To Head Behavior

The Bengals and Browns faced off twice last year, once with Jacoby Brissett as the starter, and once with Watson as the starter.

With Brissett as the starter, the Browns won 32-13. Brissett had no turnovers and threw a touchdown and rushed for another one. Nick Chubb went off for over 100 yards on the ground and had two touchdowns.

With Watson as the starter, just five weeks later, the Browns lost 23-10. Watson through an interception and a touchdown. Due to the defense not fearing him, they loaded up on Chubb and held him to just 34 yards.

In the first game with Brissett, the Browns had a scoring behavior (SBx) of 0.88 points scored per minute of possession time.

With Watson it dropped to 0.32 points per minute of possession time.

The Pigeon Pick

The Browns offense got behaviorally worse when they made the switch to who will now be their Week1 starter, Deshaun Watson, over their final six games of 2022, regressing by 50% in their scoring behavior (SBx) average.

Yes, Watson should be able to knock some rust off, but enough to keep up with the Bengals?

We don’t think so. Our second Pigeon Pick of 2023 is to take the Bengals at -1 which we think is a STEAL.

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