Dolphins and (vs.?) Tua

WATCH: 🎥 Tua Contract Extension

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IF YOU LIKE TO READ: FULL ANALYSIS

First, at the risk of being bombarded with hatred from Tuanon, this must be said:

Our NFL analytics review of the Miami Dolphins behavior during the 2023 season suggests they should pause before moving forward with the Tua contract extension.

Tua is an above average QB. He has many, many strengths. He is worth big money, given the way the market for that position works. I am asking whether or not it should be the Dolphins, given the environment they must perform in, to give it to him. I lean no on this and explain why below.

But, I will also say I can easily, EASILY, see why they will extend him to big money, and how they can be successful doing it.

Below, I am going to simply provide you with the objective numbers that led to this conclusion. Following your review of that, I will provide you the analysis of those numbers, which cemented that conclusion.

But make no mistake, in my opinion the Dolphins need to reconsider their reported willingness to sign him to a record breaking extension.

If you’re short on time…

• Miami’s Scoring Behavior Regression Mirrors Tua’s Passing Regression

• Tua’s overreliance on the Dolphins internal environment limits his ceiling

• Miami needs a momentum changer at QB to break through AFC

Tua Contract Extension: Dolphins Regression A Tua Correlation or Causation?

First, The Numbers:

Overall Scoring Behavior Rate Momentum (Week To Week, 2023)

-20%

Passing Yard Behavior Momentum (Week to Week, 2023)

-7%

Passing Touchdown Behavior Momentum (Week to Week, 2023)

-20%

Tua Contract Extension: Scoring Regression Mirror's Passing Regression

In review of the Football Behavior NFL Analytics for the purposes of analyzing a possible Tua contract extension, one glaring note stuck out: Miami’s season long scoring regression (20% week over week) was identical to Tua’s passing touchdown regression (20% week over week).

On the surface, this makes sense. The quarterback is the capatain of the on-field ship. A little bit deeper, and that’s a little troubling.

The question the Miami Dolphins need to answer is how much of that regression is correlated, or caused, by Tua’s limitations.

The Case FOR A Tua Contract Extension:

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