Divisional Round Projections

The Best Weekend of the NFL Calendar

Author

Brett Yarris
January 18, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

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Table of Contents

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The Many Paths to Super Sunday

Last week we told you that our projections indicated that among all the pathways through the playoffs, the Chiefs are the most likely champion with the most amout of pathways to the Lombardi trophy.

We had projected a most likely matchup of the Chiefs beating the Packers. But we also shared the ways in which the could derail, and what was likely to happen if it was.

One way in which that could be derailed was an Eagles victory over Green Bay (✅), which would allow the Lions the easiest pathway to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The injuries both pre and in-game for Green Bay were too much of an outlier for them to overcome and Philly got the win. As the projections stand now, we have either the Eagles or Rams losing to the Lions in the NFC Championship game.

AFC Went About As Expected

And with the AFC shaping up mostly as projected (Houston over LA was not projected, but the game was inconsequential to the majority of pathways), the question was who would beat the Chiefs, Baltimore or Buffalo?

We said last week that if Buffalo beat Baltimore in a hypothetical (now actual) divisional round matchup, Buffalo gave the Chiefs the biggest challenge. As it turns out we project Buffalo to beat Baltimore.

But now incorporating Wildcard Round behavior, the potential AFC championship game between the Bills and Chiefs is projected as a virtual tie, with a 0.11 point edge going the way of Kansas City.

That would still send the Chiefs to the Super Bowl, this time in a matchup against the Lions. We have that hypothetical matchup as a Chiefs victory, 23-20.

Last week we noted this was the second most likely outcome. The third most likely outcome, now second most likely?

A Lions victory over the Chiefs.

Chiefs Still the Favorite

The journey to Super Sunday is long and filled with countless obstacles and outliers to overcome.

But if history is prologue, our projections of who the champion will be have credence, and as of now, nothing has gotten in their way just yet.

We will get more behavioral data after this weekend which will only refine our process, so stay tuned for any updates!

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Division Round Picks

Texans @ Chiefs

Final Score Projection:

  • 23-17, Chiefs def. Texans

Pigeon Pick:

  • Chiefs ML (-500)

Commanders @ Lions

Final Score Projection:

  • 27-22, Lions def. Commanders

Pigeon Pick:

  • Lions ML (-575)

Rams @ Eagles

Final Score Projection:

  • 24-21, Rams def. Eagles

Pigeon Pick:

  • Rams +6 (-110)

  • Rams ML (+220)

Ravens @ Bills

Final Score Projection:

  • 23-21, Bills def. Ravens

Pigeon Pick:

  • Bills ML (+100)