Behavior Analysis

• Model Projection: Patriots 28, Broncos 16

  1. Scoring Behavior (SBx & SPBx)

  Patriots offense (SBx)

  • Level: 0.784 points per minute of possession

  • Bounce: x2.3 (low/moderate volatility, under our x2.4 “really good” threshold)

  • Celeration: x1.51 (strong acceleration)

  Translated: New England’s offense is behaving like a unit living in the mid-20s in points per game right now (≈24.6 baseline), with a clean, upward trajectory and not a ton of week-to-week chaos. It’s not quite at our “elite SBx level >0.8” yet, but it’s rapidly moving into that neighborhood.
  

  Broncos offense (SBx)

  • Level: 0.736 points per minute

  • Bounce: x2.8 (high volatility)

  • Celeration: x1.80 (very strong acceleration)

  Denver’s offense is hot but noisy. The celeration says they’ve been ramping scoring up aggressively, but the bounce tells us we don’t know which version we’re getting: the offense that hangs 27+… or the one that stalls out at 13.

  Patriots defense (SPBx)

  • Level: 0.546 points allowed per defensive minute

  • Bounce: x2.9 (high volatility)

  • Celeration: ÷1.16 → ~0.86x (decelerating / improving)

  • Rough PAPG from the chart: ≈15.5 points allowed per game

  This is classic “bend in strange ways but trend the right direction” behavior. The level is in our “really good” band (<0.6) and it’s getting better over time, but the high bounce tells us individual games can swing pretty hard above or below that 15–16 range.
  

  Broncos defense (SPBx)

  • Level: 0.583 points allowed per defensive minute

  • Bounce: x3.2 (very high volatility)

  • Celeration: x1.71 (getting worse, fast)

  • Rough PAPG from the chart: ≈17.2 points allowed per game

  Denver’s defense is living near the same scoring neighborhood as New England’s, but the shape of the behavior is ugly: points allowed are accelerating upward with even more volatility than New England’s. That lines up cleanly with our projection: the Pats offense is catching this unit mid-slide.

  2. Ball Possession Behavior

  Remember:

  • Ball Possession Behavior level → 1 / level = minutes of offensive possession

  • Ball Possession Prevention level → 1 / level = minutes you allow the opponent to possess

  Patriots

  Offensive Ball Possession Behavior

  • Level: 0.0319 → ≈ 31:21 of possession per game

  • Bounce: x1.4 (nice and steady)

  • Celeration: ÷1.07 (~0.93x, slightly less time of possession over time)

  The Pats typically live above the 30-minute mark, but their offense is actually playing a bit faster over time—shorter drives, either via more efficient scoring or more quick exchanges.

  Defensive Ball Possession Prevention

  • Level: 0.0352 → ≈ 28:25 allowed to opponents

  • Bounce: x1.4 (steady)

  • Celeration: x1.07 (slightly more time of possession allowed over time)

  So the defense is staying on the field a bit longer as the season goes on. That’s the one “uh oh” behavior: if anything cracks here, it’s long Broncos drives, not sudden explosions.

  Broncos

  Offensive Ball Possession Behavior

  • Level: 0.0327 → ≈ 30:35 of possession per game

  • Bounce: x1.5 (respectably steady)

  • Celeration: x1.09 (slightly more time of possession over time)

  Denver’s offense is trending toward longer, more sustained control of the ball—which fits with an offense growing into itself.

  Defensive Ball Possession Prevention

  • Level: 0.0338 → ≈ 29:35 allowed to opponents

  • Bounce: x1.7 (a bit more variable, but not crazy)

  • Celeration: ÷1.46 (~0.68x, strong reduction in time of possession allowed)

  This is actually Denver’s most encouraging behavior: the defense is getting off the field faster and faster in terms of possession time, even while bleeding more points per minute. That screams “compressed fields/short fields and high-leverage breakdowns” more than it does “stout, suffocating unit.”

  3. Matchup Story in Behavioral Terms

  When we combine these patterns:

  • Pats offense vs Broncos defense

    • Pats SBx is accelerating with low-ish bounce.

    • Broncos SPBx is accelerating in the wrong direction with very high bounce.

    • Possession projections (geometric mean of the two behaviors) put New England around 30:27 with the ballin this matchup.

    • Behaviorally: this is a favorable high-efficiency scoring environment for New England, even if the exact shape (run/pass mix, drive length) wiggles week-to-week.

  • Broncos offense vs Pats defense

    • Broncos SBx is also accelerating, but with much higher volatility.

    • Pats SPBx level is strong and decelerating (improving), but with its own high bounce.

    • Projected possession for Denver is around 29:29.

    • Behaviorally: this looks like an offense that can score in spikes but is more likely to be contained to the mid-teens when it runs into a well-organized defense on a good day.

  Put together, our 28–16 projection perfectly fits the chart story:

  • Patriots win the efficiency battle on their drives.

  • Denver fights for time of possession but does less with it.

  • Variance is high enough on both defenses that blowouts and rock fights are live, but the most likely cluster is New England comfortably ahead by one to two scores.

Game 1 Betting Guide – Take / Pass

Using:

• Our projection: Patriots 28, Broncos 16 (44 total)

• SBx/SPBx & possession behavior from the CSVs

• Our “what’s really good” criteria for level, bounce, and celeration

Main Markets

Moneyline

• Patriots -218

• Broncos +178

📌 Verdict: PASS (lean Patriots ML only for parlays)
Our model and the charts both lean clearly to New England winning, but -218 is pretty close to fair for a team projected to win by ~12 with defensive volatility on both sides. There’s edge if we believe the Pats are closer to “near-lock,” but from a process standpoint, we’d rather express that edge through the spread and team totals than laying this juice straight.

Spread

• Patriots -3.5 (-115)

• Broncos +3.5 (-105)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Patriots -3.5

• Model margin: Pats by 12

• Pats offense: accelerating SBx, low-ish bounce

• Broncos defense: worsening SPBx with very high bounce

Even after respecting volatility, our numbers are giving multiple points of cushion on the favorite. Behaviorally, the only way this really burns us is:

• a “bad-bounce” Pats defense game +

• a ceiling performance from the Broncos offense

…which is possible, but not the median outcome. This is the clearest “Take” on the board for Game 1.

Game Total (O/U 43.0, -110/-110)

📌 Verdict: PASS (slight lean OVER)

• Model total: 44

• Pats offense trending up, Broncos defense trending down

• Pats defense trending better, but both defenses have big SPBx bounce

We’ve basically landed right on top of the market. One point of model edge with high scoring volatility is not enough to fire confidently. If we must lean, the combination of:

• Patriots’ offensive celeration, and

• Broncos’ defensive celeration (in the wrong direction)

…pushes us slightly toward the Over, but this is a classic “numbers say we don’t have to bet this” spot.

Team Totals

Broncos Team Total: 19.5 (-120 Over / -110 Under)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Broncos Under 19.5

• Our projection: 16 points

• Pats defense SPBx:

  • Level: 0.546 (in our “good” band <0.6)

  • Celeration: ÷1.16 (improving)

• Rough allowed from chart: ≈15.5 PAPG

Yes, the Pats defense has high bounce, and Denver’s offense is accelerating—but the central tendency for this matchup is mid-teens, and we’re getting a number near 20 with the plus-EV juice side on the Under. Of all the totals, this one best matches both our model and the chart behavior.

Patriots Team Total: 23.5 (-121 Over / -110 Under)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Patriots Over 23.5

• Our projection: 28 points

• Pats SBx: 0.784, celeration x1.51, bounce x2.3 (strong and trending up)

• Broncos SPBx: 0.583, celeration x1.71 (getting worse), bounce x3.2 (very volatile)

Even being conservative and shaving a couple points for variance, it’s hard to justify an Under stance here. Behaviorally, this looks like a game where:

• New England reaches the mid-20s by just being themselves, and

• Can push closer to 30 if Denver’s defense continues its current SPBx acceleration.

This is our second-strongest angle after Pats -3.5.

Field Goals Prop

Total Field Goals O/U 3.5 (-115 Over / -105 Under)

📌 Verdict: PASS
Our framework is built around points per minute and time of possession, not red-zone conversion vs. stalled drives inside the 30. We have:

• A projected 44-point game

• Stable possession on both sides

• High volatility in points allowed

That’s perfectly compatible with 3 FGs or 5 FGs without the CSVs giving us a clean behavioral edge either way. Without a chart-based signal, this falls into “fun sweat, not a data bet.”

Winning Margin Props

• Patriots by less than 13: +108

• Patriots by 1–6: +245

• Patriots by 7–12: +390

Given our projection of Pats by 12, the behavior-driven sweet spot is:

📌 Main stance: PASS across the board (with a lean toward a small sprinkle on 7–12 if we like ladders)

• The SPBx bounce on both defenses is so high that it meaningfully increases the tail risk of:

  • a blowout >13, or

  • a weird close game where Denver’s offense spikes.

• “Pats by less than 13” at +108 is too narrow given that volatility.

• “Pats by 7–12” at +390 does line up with our exact projection, so if we’re the type to ladder margins, that’s the bin that fits our model—just not something to treat as a core position.
  
  Responsible note: Keep total exposure modest (≈ 1% of bankroll for the whole card). We’re betting price vs. behavior, not certainty.

Behavioral Analysis

• Model Projection: Seahawks 24, Rams 19

  1. Scoring Behavior (SBx & SPBx)

  Rams offense (SBx)

  • Level: ~0.92 points per minute of possession

  • Bounce: ~x2.1 (under our x2.4 “really good” volatility threshold)

  • Celeration: ~x1.04 (modest acceleration)

  This is exactly the profile we flag as “really good” SBx behavior:

  • Level > 0.8 ✅

  • Bounce < x2.4 ✅

  • Celeration > 1 (trending up) ✅

  Translated: the Rams offense is playing like a ~28 points per game unit right now (≈0.92 SBx × ≈30.5 minutes of possession). It’s not a fluke spike either — the scoring behavior is strong, relatively stable, and still nudging upward.

  Seahawks offense (SBx)

  • Level: ~0.83 points per minute of possession

  • Bounce: ~x2.6 (a bit high; more volatile than “ideal”)

  • Celeration: ≈0.95x (slight deceleration, cooling a bit)

  This is still a good offense, but a different shape:

  • Level > 0.8 ✅

  • Bounce > x2.4 ❌

  • Celeration just under 1 → stabilizing or slightly cooling.

  Behaviorally, Seattle’s offense is sitting in the mid-20s in scoring (~25 PPG) with more week-to-week wobble than the Rams and not the same upward push we see from LA.

  Rams defense (SPBx)

  • Level: ~0.62 points allowed per defensive minute

  • Bounce: ~x3.1 (very high volatility)

  • Celeration: ~x1.13 (worsening; allowing points faster over time)

  • Rough PAPG: ≈19 points allowed per game

  This is not our “really good SPBx” profile:

  • Level is above the 0.6 threshold ❌

  • Celeration > 1 → more points allowed over time ❌

  • Bounce is high ❌

  So while the raw PAPG sits in a respectable neighborhood (~19), the behavior trend is bad: the defense is getting leakier and doing it in a volatile way. This is the most unstable unit on the field.

  Seahawks defense (SPBx)

  • Level: ~0.48 points allowed per defensive minute

  • Bounce: ~x3.2 (also very high volatility)

  • Celeration: ≈0.83x (strong deceleration; allowing fewer points over time)

  • Rough PAPG: ≈14 points allowed per game

  This defense does check most of our “really good” boxes on the core behavior:

  • Level < 0.6 ✅

  • Celeration < 1 (improving quickly) ✅

  • Bounce is the one problem: very high ❌

  The picture: Seattle’s defense is trending toward legitimately stingy, but the week-to-week spread of outcomes is wide. When it’s good, it’s really good. When it’s off, the game can pop.

  2. Ball Possession Behavior

  Remember our definitions:

  • Ball Possession Behavior
    → 1 / Level = minutes of offensive possession per game

  • Ball Possession Prevention Behavior
    → 1 / Level = minutes we allow opponents to possess the ball

  Rams

  Offensive Ball Possession Behavior

  • Level: ~0.0328 → ≈ 30:29 of possession per game

  • Bounce: ~x1.6 (nice and controlled)

  • Celeration: ≈0.96x (slightly less time of possession over time)

  The Rams offense is living just over 30 minutes per game, but the slight deceleration suggests they’re playing a bit faster—more scoring attempts per unit time, fewer grind-it-out, clock-eating drives.

  Defensive Ball Possession Prevention

  • Level: ~0.0325 → ≈ 30:46 allowed to opponents

  • Bounce: ~x1.5 (steady)

  • Celeration: ~x1.02 (slightly more time allowed over time)

  So on the defensive side, LA is slowly giving opponents more time with the ball. That fits our SPBx story: more defensive snaps, more exposure, and more chances to leak points as the season goes on.

  Seahawks

  Offensive Ball Possession Behavior

  • Level: ~0.0334 → ≈ 29:56 of possession per game

  • Bounce: ~x1.5 (steady)

  • Celeration: ≈0.95x (slightly less time of possession over time)

  Seattle’s offense also trends toward faster games: slightly shorter time of possession over time, consistent with an offense that is more efficient or more explosive when it’s on, but doesn’t need to dominate the clock.

  Defensive Ball Possession Prevention

  • Level: ~0.0338 → ≈ 29:35 allowed to opponents

  • Bounce: ~x1.6 (moderately steady)

  • Celeration: ~x1.05 (slightly more time allowed over time)

  Net effect:

  • Projected matchup possession using the geometric mean of both sides:

    • Rams offense vs Seahawks defense: ≈ 30:02

    • Seahawks offense vs Rams defense: ≈ 30:21

  In other words, this game is likely to be very close to a 30/30 split in possession. There’s no huge clock-control edge either way. The difference is in what each team does with their 30 minutes.

  3. Matchup Story in Behavioral Terms

  Putting the scoring and possession behaviors together:

  Rams offense vs Seahawks defense

  • Rams SBx: high level (0.92), low bounce, modest acceleration → one of the cleanest, most reliable scoring behaviors we track.

  • Seahawks SPBx: low level (~0.48), strong deceleration (big improvement), high bounce → defense trending toward near-elite, but with volatile outcomes.

  That’s classic strength-on-strength:

  • If Seattle’s defense lands near its median SPBx behavior, it can drag the Rams down from their ~28-point baseline into the teens/low 20s.

  • If we catch one of those “bad bounce” defensive games, the Rams have the profile to punish it hard.

  Our 19-point projection for the Rams reflects the idea that Seattle’s improving defense wins this particular tug-of-war more often than not, but the volatility is real.

  Seahawks offense vs Rams defense

  • Seahawks SBx: solid level (0.83), higher bounce, slight deceleration → good-but-not-surging offense with some noise.

  • Rams SPBx: level above 0.6 and accelerating, with very high bounce → defense trending worse, giving up points more quickly, and doing it unpredictably.

  This side is much cleaner: Seattle has a behavioral edge.

  • Rams’ defense is the weakest, most unstable unit in the matchup.

  • Seahawks’ offense doesn’t have to be heroic; just its normal mid-20s self is enough to carve out an advantage.

  Combined with possession behavior (near-even time of possession), the shape of the game that emerges is:

  • Rams: efficient offense, but capped by a surging, high-variance Seahawks defense.

  • Seahawks: good offense facing a worsening, high-variance Rams defense, with plenty of room for 20+ points.

  That lines up exactly with our 24–19 Seahawks projection:
  balanced possession, slight scoring edge to Seattle, and a game that clusters in the low-to-mid 40s in total points.

Main Markets

Moneyline

• Rams +118

• Seahawks -139

📌 Verdict: PASS (lean Seahawks ML only in parlays)

Our model has Seattle winning this game by about 5 points with:

• The better defense by behavior (lower SPBx, strong deceleration), and

• A Rams defense that’s accelerating in the wrong direction.

That supports Seattle as the rightful favorite. But at -139, the price is pretty fair for a 2.5-point spread game, and we already have a cleaner way to express our edge (the spread). We’d rather not pay this juice straight up.

Spread

• Rams +2.5 (-114)

• Seahawks -2.5 (-106)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Seahawks -2.5

• Model margin: Seahawks by 5

• Behavior edge:

  • Seahawks defense: low SPBx, improving, even if volatile

  • Rams defense: higher SPBx, worsening, very volatile

Even giving some respect to Rams’ strong SBx, the most likely scoring cluster has Seattle landing in the low-to-mid 20s and the Rams stuck in the high teens/low 20s. That gives us a couple of points of cushion against the -2.5.

This mirrors Game 1: the spread is again our cleanest way to bet the side.

Game Total (O/U 46, -109/-110)

📌 Verdict: PASS (lean UNDER)

• Our model total: 43

• Baseline scoring profiles:

  • Rams offense ≈ 28 PPG; Seahawks defense ≈ 14 PAPG

  • Seahawks offense ≈ 25 PPG; Rams defense ≈ 19 PAPG

• The head-to-head projection settles in the low 40s, not a fireworks show.

If all we cared about were medians, we’d like the Under 46. But the catch is:

• Both defenses show very high SPBx bounce → they can swing into weird, higher-scoring outcomes without much warning.

So we keep this in “light lean Under, not a core position” territory. If we want to ride our biggest edges, the spread and team totals are better.

Team Totals

Rams Team Total: 22.5 (-112 Over / -120 Under)

📌 Verdict: TAKE – Rams Under 22.5

• Our projection: 19 points

• Seahawks defense:

  • SPBx level ≈ 0.48 (<0.6, in our “good” band)

  • Celeration ≈ 0.83x (strong deceleration; improving quickly)

• Rams offense is excellent, but this is their toughest behavioral matchup.

From a behavior standpoint, this looks like:

• Rams offense’s “really good” SBx running into a defense that’s clamping down over time,

• With neutral possession (≈30 minutes), not a ball-control advantage.

That makes 23+ points feel like the upper-middle of the distribution, not the center. This is one of our favorite angles for Game 2.

Seahawks Team Total: 24.5 (+108 Over / -143 Under)

📌 Verdict: PASS

• Our projection: 24 points

• Seahawks offense ≈ 25 PPG, Rams defense ≈ 19 PAPG, but:

  • Seahawks SBx is slightly decelerating, and

  • Rams SPBx is worsening with huge bounce, which widens the band of outcomes.

Behaviorally, Seattle clearing 24 or 27 is absolutely live, but we don’t have the same cushion we do on the Rams’ total. The number sits right on our model, and the juice structure doesn’t scream value either way. We’ll let this one go.

Field Goals Prop

Total FGs in game O/U 3.5 (-120 Over / +100 Under)

📌 Verdict: PASS

Our framework is built around:

• Points per minute of possession, and

• Time of possession

—not red-zone efficiency vs. drive-stall rates. A projected 43-point game with balanced possession is compatible with 3 or 5 field goals without the CSVs pushing us clearly toward one side.

No clear behavioral edge here = no need to force a bet.

Winning Margin Props

• Seahawks by less than 13: +129

• Seahawks by 1–6: +285

Given our projection (Seahawks by 5):

📌 Main stance: PASS across the board (with a small lean toward a ladder sprinkle on Seahawks by 1–6)

• Our model says the most likely script is a one-score Seahawks win, which fits nicely in the 1–6 window.

• But both defenses have huge SPBx bounce, which:

  • Keeps the door open for a bigger Seahawks win if the Rams defense collapses, or

  • A Rams upset if Seattle’s defense hits a bad-variance game.

If we’re the kind of group that likes laddering margins, Seahawks by 1–6 at +285 is the bin that matches our projection. But it’s a secondary sprinkle, not a primary edge like the spread or Rams team total under.