Christmas Day Projections

Merry Christmas and Happy first day of Hanukah! We will keep this one short and sweet so everyone can get back to enjoying the wonderful holidays with family.

In here you will find:

• Christmas Day game behavior analysis

• Thursday Night Football behavior analysis

🎄Christmas Day Games

Chiefs Keep Rolling

We’ve projected the Chiefs to lose a few times this season and they keep finding ways to win. We project this this game will not be a game they need to find a way to win.

Steelers in a Funk

The Steelers are in a 4% scoring regression week over week since Russell Wilson became the starter. On defense its even worse.

On defense it is a 20% week over week score prevention regression. And that’s where it has been a real problem. since the bye week they have given up 0.7 points or more in five out of seven games.

Why is 0.7 ppm Important?

That is the number the Chiefs have hit in 8 of 9 games since their bye week on offense. The Steelers are projected to give up more than that in this game, and that could pull the Chiefs up as they round into post season mode.

What Else is that Important?

That is the number the Chiefs defense average giving up this season, with an incredibly consistent bounce rate. It is also what the Steelers offense’s averaged since Wilson became the starter, and trending downwards.

It means this should be a pretty accurate projection, especially if time of possession projections hold true and each offense behaves how it typically does regarding possessing the ball.

Texans may be the Worst Playoff Team

The Texans rank 23rd in Margin For Error Score, the worst ranking of any current playoff slotted team from either conference.

Interestingly the Ravens aren’t rated all the much higher, sitting at 16th. For both, the problem has been defenses that allow over 0.8 points per minute.

However, unlike Baltimore, Houston doesn’t have the offensive explosion we were used to form last year and they just lost Tank Dell for the season, and maybe next.

Texans Concern?

The Texans offense has been the most consistent one in football all year long in terms of scoring. They are pretty much a lock for 0.7 points per minute every game.

What we don’t know is how the absence of Tank Dell will change their behavior. That could be a substantial change to their environment., and how they adapt is a big question mark.

Another question mark is the Baltimore defense. Their last two games have been among their best all season. To be fair, their last two games have been against the Tim Boyle-led Giants, and a regressing Steelers team.

If the Texans offense behaves as expected, even with the improvement from Baltimore’s defense, a 30 minute time of possession will help them stay close.

If the Tank Dell injury proves too big a change and their behavior changes, it could be a big Ravens win.

In a game the Seahawks must win in order to keep their bleak playoff hopes alive, they will likely get the win. The Bears for lack of a better term, suck. Not only that, but because of abysmal leadership during the Eberflus era, they have seemingly quit on the NFL season.

Bears Suck

The Bears have the 8th worst Margin For Error score and are the fourth most regressed team in all of football. If the Seahawks were to lose this game than they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs anyway.

Seahawks are Definition of Mid

The Seahawks are the 10th most regressed team in football, which has gradually had them slide down from a top 10 spot in Margin For Error score earlier in the season.

They have beat almost every bad team they have faced, and lost to every good team. It doesn't;t get more mid than that.

The Bears are a bad team. This should be a Seahawks win.

We hope everyone enjoys their holidays season with friends, family and food. Don’t feel bad about turning the game off and enjoying some of the best moments of the year! 🎄

And thank you for spending 2024 with us, making it profitable for everyone, and getting a better understanding of Football Behavior. Bigger things to come in 2025! 🥂