Best NFL Teams To Bet On

All 32 NFL Teams Ranked

Author

Brett Yarris
July 14, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

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As a sports bettor, there’s nothing worse than unpredictability. Sure, we want to take risks because often that is where the payoff is. But we want those risks to be calculated and follow a strict process. According to the Football Behavior’s Football Betting Risk Assessment tool, we are able to rank all 32 teams based on how safe or risky they were to bet on.

As a subscriber, you are exclusively getting this full list of 32 teams delivered straight to your inbox. Additionally, throughout the year, you will get Football Behavior’s Football Betting Risk Assessments for every primetime matchup in 2023. For Football Betting Risk Assessments for every single matchup each week all the way through the Super Bowl, simply upgrade your membership to Pigeon Picks and also get:

  • Final score predictions for every game

  • Football Betting Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

  • Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated every week

  • Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

All 32 NFL Teams Ranked By Betting Risk

As you go through the list, please refer to the the FBx Risk Assessment Key:

  • x1 - x2.49 : Safe Bet

  • x2.5 - x3.49 : Proceed With Caution

  • x3.5 or Higher: Stay Away

The Top Five Most Risky Teams To Bet On

32. New Orleans Saints

  • 2022 Fbx Risk Assessment: x6.05

  • The addition of Derek Carr at quarterback should be a stabilizing force, but not enough to make them a safe bet early in 2023. This will be reassessed after Week 3 of the 2023 regular season. Until then, stay away.

31. New England Patriots

  • 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x5.1

  • The Patriots spent their first three draft picks of 2023 on defense, one each in the secondary, linebackers and defensive line. They see the issues and hope it will provide consistency. Since these are new additions, take a wait and see approach and stay away through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

30. Indianapolis Colts

  • 2022 FBx Risk Assessment x4.5

  • There is a whole new coaching staff in place in Indianapolis on the offensive side of the ball, and likely a rookie quarterback starting Week 1. While they may ultimately be better, they likely will not be consistent. Stay away from betting on them through at least the first three weeks of 2023.

29. San Francisco 49ers

  • 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x4.4

  • Depending on the health of the quarterback position, “Proceed With Caution” through the first three weeks of 2023

28. Las Vegas

  • 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x4.25

  • Entering 2023, dependent upon the health of Jimmy G and off of the consistency of their defense, they are in the “Proceed With Caution” category for the first three weeks of 2023.

The Other Teams You Should Have Considered Staying Away From:

27. Carolina Panthers: x3.95

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

26. Dallas Cowboys: x3.8

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

25. Detroit Lions: x3.55

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

24. New York Jets: x3.45

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

23. Baltimore Ravens: x3.4

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

22. Houston Texans: x3.15

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

21. Seattle Seahawks: x3.15

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

20. Cleveland Browns: x3.15

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

Teams You Should Have Proceeded With Caution Betting On

19. Pittsburgh Steelers: x3.05

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: x3.05

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

17. Miami Dolphins: x3.05

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

16. Buffalo Bills: x3.05

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

15. Washington Commanders: x3

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

14. Minnesota Vikings: x2.95

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

13. Jacksonville Jaguars: x2.9

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

12. Chicago Bears: x2.85

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Offense

11. Los Angeles Chargers: x2.85

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

10. Philadelphia Eagles: x2.8

  • Riskiest side of the ball: Defense

Teams That Were Safer To Bet On

9. Los Angeles Rams: x2.55

  • Safest side of the ball: Defense

8. Tennessee Titans: x2.55

  • Safest side of the ball: Offense

7. Green Bay Packers: x2.5

  • Safest side of the ball: Defense

6. Denver Broncos: x2.5

  • Safest side of the ball: Tied

Top Five Safest Teams To Bet On

5. Arizona Cardinals: x2.45

  • While the defense was bad, it was at least consistently bad. A new system and coaching staff throws that into flux.

  • The relative instability on offense could be even worse this year with all of the changes.

  • The Cardinals have been downgraded to “Stay Away” through at least the first three weeks of 2023.

4. Kansas City Chiefs: x2.25

  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 18-4 on the moneyline, against the spread, and dutching winning margins when picking Kansas City Chiefs games in 2022

  • There may not be a safer bet than Patrick Mahomes and Andy Ried.

    • Yes, there was a change at offensive coordinator.

    • He is a familiar face to both Reid and Mahomes in Matt Nagy, and as long as Reid is still there, no drop off should be expected.

  • The Chiefs remain a “Safe Bet” through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

3. Cincinnati Bengals: x2.2

  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 16-4-2 on the moneyline, against the spread, and dutching winning margins when picking Cincinnati Bengals games in 2022.

  • No major environmental changes occurred heading into 2023.

  • With an elite quarterback and an elite defense, this team can be trusted to continue being consistent in the rate they score points and the rate at which they prevent them.

  • The Bengals enter 2023 as a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks.

2. New York Giants: x2.1

  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 9-3 on the moneyline and against the spread when picking New York Giants games in 2022.

    • Tied with Atlanta for “Safest Bet” during 2022.

  • The offense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x1.7, the most predictable in the NFL.

    • On offense, 14 out of 17 games were between 0.6 and 0.9 SBx Rate.

  • The defense had a “Proceed With Caution” bounce rate of x2.5, just outside the “Safe Bet” range.

    • No major environmental changes heading into 2023.

  • The New York Giants remain a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks of 2023.

1. Atlanta Falcons: x2.1

  • They had no major changes to their environment heading into 2023.

  • The question mark is Desmond Ridder, isolating his four starts to close out the year, his bounce rate was slightly higher than the overall x2.3. Likely his performance stabilizes (even if not good).

  • Falcons remain a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks of 2023.

What Does It All Mean?

For the FBx model, risk is assessed by looking at something we call the bounce rate, or how much the data will vary from smallest to highest by a specific ratio, week over week. In betting, we want this variance in both points scored and points allowed to be as small as possible.

The Football Behavior (FBx) Risk Assessment is derived from looking at the bounce rates of an NFL team’s Scoring Behavior Rate (SBxR), or how many points a team is scoring per minute of possession time per week, and their Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBxR), or how many points a team is allowing their opponent to score per minute of opponent possession time per week.

That is then weighted to produce the full team risk assessment. The higher the number, the less predictable a team was week to week. The lower the number, the more predictable.

For Football Betting Risk Assessments for every single matchup each week all the way through the Super Bowl, simply upgrade your membership to Pigeon Picks and also get:

  • Final score predictions for every game

  • Football Betting Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

  • Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated every week

  • Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. To take full advantage, sports bettors should upgrade your membership to Pigeon Picks and also get:

  • Final score predictions for every game

  • Football Betting Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

  • Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated every week

  • Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

  • How likely a team is to continue a certain trend

  • How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head

  • How a trend could impact the point spread

  • How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)