Best Betting Strategies

Using the Football Behavior Prediction Model gives bettors the opportunity to remove superstition from the NFL bets they place. Using behavior science and analytic thinking, we are able to predict the way football teams are likely to behave on game day.

Knowing that, below we will discuss how to use “dutching” strategies, using the model to win on the moneyline, against the spread, and with prop bets.

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1. Moneyline

Betting on the moneyline essentially means picking the winner at whatever odds are offered by the sports book. The best value in betting on the moneyline is when you think an underdog is going to win. The Football Behavior Prediction Model went 80-24-1 picking on the moneyline in the 2022-2023 NFL season, hitting 76% of the time.

Now, when the model agrees that a favorite is going to win, sometimes the profit is minimal. But, hey, you can’t go broke making a profit. That said, there were plenty of instances when the model predicted an underdog would win, those moneyline bets were excellent for the profit margins.

Consider This

On 10/9/2022, the Dallas Cowboys were 5.5 point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. The Football Behavior Prediction Model predicted that not only would the Cowboys cover that spread, they would win the game outright. They had +196 odds to win, which simply means if you bet $100 on them to win, you win $196 on top of that.

The Cowboys would win that game 22-10.

Additionally, on 1/9/2023, the Detroit Lions were on the road against the Green Bay Packers where they were 4.5 point underdogs. The model predicted that not only would they cover that spread, but that they would be the team to win by four points, with a final score prediction of 26-22.

The Lions did in fact win that game by four points, by a score of 20-16.

To take advantage of every final score prediction made by the model in the 2023-2024 NFL season upgrade now to Pigeon Picks and get our early bird discount. In addition to every game predicted, you’ll also get access to:

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week, which informs bettors which games are safer than others to bet on

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly, which informs bettors of the trends teams are experiencing on both sides of the ball

• Quarterback and full team predictions for all primetime games

2. Against The Spread

Similar to dutching, which we cover below, due to the Football Prediction Model’s ability to predict multiple outcomes, betting against the spread is one of the best bets to place if you are tailing the model. In 2022, through the Super Bowl, the model went 80-46-8 against the spread, hitting 60% of the time.

Due to the model taking into account behavior science, and the importance of the environment, in a way that the sports books and casual bettors may not, the spread is where we can find value, especially when the model predicts an underdog to win.

The spread gives the model a larger margin for error on its projections, because within our margin of error on final scores, even if the projected winner doesn’t win, the margin of the final score prediction gives room to win against the spread.

Consider This

On 11/6/2022, the Buffalo Bills were scheduled to go on the road against the New York Jets. The Bills were favored in that game by 11.5 points.

The Football Behavior Prediction Model predicted that it would be the underdog New York Jets who would win by a projected score of 19-17. In this case, not only was the model predicting the underdog to cover the big 11.5 point spread, but we also projected them to win.

The Jets would end up winning that game 20-17.

Likewise, on 11/7/2022 the Tennessee Titans went on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs were favored by 14 points. The model predicted the Chiefs would win, but not by that many points. In fact, the model predicted the Chiefs would win by just five points, 24-19.

Not only did we place a bet taking the Titans +14, we also placed a bet on an alternative spread of 10 points.

The Chiefs won by a final score of 20-17, with the Titans covering both the spread and alternative spread, coming within four and and two points, respectively, of the projected final score.

The spread gives bettors a better chance to take advantage of team behavior that the sports books aren’t considering, when using the Football Behavior Prediction Model. Upgrade to Pigeon Picks to get access to the model’s projections that hit 67% of the time on all bets and had a 91% ROI.

3. Dutching Winning Margins

This has become my go to strategy when using the model, and demonstrates the benefit of having final score projections.

Dutching is a type of betting strategy used to spread out the risk and increase the opportunity for profit by betting on multiple potential outcomes in the same event, ensuring a profit if just one hits.

Typically used in horse racing because there can be multiple outcomes in terms of who wins, we have been using it for NFL games because in the NFL multiple outcomes can happen in one NFL game when you look at specific scores.

Think of it this way: Football Behavior treats winning margins as individual race horses. Most sportsbooks give plus odds on all winning margins given the difficulty of hitting on any single one of them. This is where dutching comes in.

The Football Behavior Prediction Model, given its final score prediction capabilities, provides the likelihood of multiple score outcomes. The model began placing official winning margin bets, and dutching them, during the 2022-2023 NFL playoffs and went 6-2, hitting 75% of the time.

Consider This

In the 2022-2023 AFC Championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals, the Football Prediction Model predicted a Chiefs victory of 24-21. The Chiefs would win by an actual score of 23-20. The Bengals were favored by sportsbooks in this game.

The model predicted that a 1-6 point Chiefs victory was the most likely outcome. It also predicted that a Bengals 1-6 point victory was the next most likely outcome, followed by a Chiefs 7-12 point victory as the third most likely outcome.

DraftKings had the odds for each of those winning margins as follows:

• Chiefs 1-6 points +330

• Chiefs 7-12 points +550

• Bengals 1-6 points +285

Now, there are two ways to dutch NFL winning margins: allocating your bets proportionately, or allocating your bets equally.

Allocating your bets proportionately looks like this:

Let’s say you had $300 to wager. You would want to do the following:

• $119.45 on Chiefs by 1-6

• $107.97 on Bengals 1-6

• $71.43 on Chiefs 7-12

That would yield you a total of $464.29 if any of those three outcomes occur, and you’re taking home a net profit of $164.29. You would be rooting for the Chiefs to win by fewer than 13 points or the Bengals to win by fewer than six points, as has been the case in each of Cincinnati’s last three games against the Chiefs.

Now, allocating your bets equally…

would have you putting $100 on each of the three margins, totaling the $300 you have to wager. If the lowest odds hit (Bengals 1-6 +285), you would win $385 with an $85 profit. If the highest odds came in (Chiefs 7-12), you would win $650 with a $350 profit.

If the lowest odds hit, you turn a profit, but not as high a profit if you had allocated your bets proportionately. However, if the highest odds come in, you would net an even higher profit than if you had allocated your wagers proportionately. A little more risky, but still guarantied profit if one of them hits.

Because the Football Behavior Prediction Model predicted a Kansas City victory between 1-6 points, the model won on that winning margin. With every Football Behavior Prediction Model projection, we will provide which winning margins are the best to target for each game we place a bet in.

In order to have access to that for every game, make sure you upgrade to Pigeon Picks for that PLUS:

• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week, which informs bettors which games are safer than others to bet on

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly, which informs bettors of the trends teams are experiencing on both sides of the ball

• Quarterback and full team prop predictions for all primetime games

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