This week in the Football Behavior Guide: we're looking at which teams are trending up, or down, the most through two games of the NFL season. We also look at consistency as we are one week away from establishing behavioral trends for final score predictions! →

 🏈The Trend We’re Loving: Falcons Offense
It seems to matter not who the coach or QB is, Atlanta always remains among the most consistent offenses! Through two games they seem to have established an identity of a low scoring, ball control offense. They averaged 0.6 points per minute of possession in both games, holding the ball for 35 and 36 minutes respectively.

🏈 Defensive Spotlight: Houston Texans
Through two games, the Texans are the only team in the NFL to hold their opponents to 0.5 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time in each game, hitting exactly that feat in each.

💡Through two games we know: Nothing

• A reminder that we don’t really know who these teams are yet, and they themselves are still desperately trying to figure it out. So expect a few more “bouncy” performances as teams hone in on their identities on each side of the ball.

Divisional Trends
The Best and Worst Trending Offenses and Defenses in each Division

• Who are the Lions really?

• Can you trust Ravens Defense?

• The Dolphins are not good on either side

Lets see where these teams stack up:

Offense Trending UP

Miami Dolphins

But don’t be fooled! They had no where to go but up after Week 1 drubbing to Indy. And while they scored 0.8 points per minute in Week 2, they still only managed 20 points in a loss to the Patriots. Speaking of, New England just missed out on this and that’s a team to keep an eye on…

Offense Trending Down

New York Jets

They had the biggest week to week decline in the AFC East, going from 0.9 points per minute in their Week 1 loss to the Steelers, to 0.5 points per minute in their Week 2 loss to the Bills. They also saw a massive drop in their time of possession. Adding to that Justin Fields is OUT for Week 3.

Defense Trending UP

Buffalo Bills

After giving up a whopping 1.6 points per minute to the Ravens offense in their Week 1 soot out, they gave up just 0.5 points per minute to the Jets in Week 2, a more than 1 point per minute difference. And before we collectively say “But it’s just the Jets”, The Jets did have a big offensive showing in Week 1.

Defense Trending DOWN

New England Patriots

It almost feels unfair to put them here, but they are the only team to get worse from Week 1 to Week 2, even if only by one tenth of a point per minute from 0.7 to 0.8 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.

Offense Trending UP

New York Giants

The Giants had a MASSIVE jump from Week 1 to Week 2, going from 0.2 points per minute of possession time to 1.1 points per minute of possession time, even if they did lose both times. If somehow they can be more like Week 2 than Week 1, this could be a fun season, if nothing else.

Offense Trending Down

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 2-0, and defending their championship. And so far, their offense is utilizing the same ball control style that has been their style. However, From Week 1 to Week 2 they went down from 0.7 points per minute to 0.6 points per minute of possession time. Be worried? No. Be mindful? Yes.

Defense Trending UP

Philadelphia Eagles

On the flip side, the defense was the only one in the division who got better from Week 1 to Week 2, going from allowing 0.8 points per minute, to allowing 0.6 points per minute of opponent possession time to the Chiefs in Week 2.

Defense Trending DOWN

Washington Commanders

Three of the four NFC East defenses got worse from Week 1 to Week 2. Commanders were worst in that regard going from allowing a stunning 0.2 points per minute of Giants offensive possession time in Week 1, to allowing 0.8 points per minute of Packers offensive possession time in Week 2. The 0.6 point change was larger than both the Giants and Cowboys 0.4 declination week to week.

Offense Trending UP

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were the only team in the division to improve from Week 1 to Week 2. After a modest showing of 0.7 points per minute of possession time in Week 1, they exploded with 1.2 points per minute in Week 2, having about the same time of possession in both insantaces. That could be problematic for consistency, and now with Burrow done for presumably the season, who knows where they end up.

Offense Trending Down

Pittsburgh Steelers

After a big showing against his former team (are they really though? Did anyone ever really feel like he was a Jet?), Rodgers and Steelers offense took a big step back against the Seahawks. They went from scoring 1.3 points per minute of possession time in Week 1 to 0.6 in Week 2. That 0.7 point swing was the biggest in the NFL week to week.

Defense Trending UP

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens defense was a big let down in Week 1, giving up 1.2 points per minute to the Bills in a big loss. They rebounded resoundingly against the lowly Browns (improving by 0.7 points) surrendering 0.5 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. A quick hypothetical analysis would say to be mindful of this defense performing to environment they find themselves in week to week (opponent level).

Defense Trending DOWN

Cleveland Browns

The Browns went backwards in a big way from Week 1 to Week 2, surrendering a difference of half a point per minute of opponent possession time between the two games. After giving up 0.7 points per minute in week 1, and getting off the field nicely, they gave up 1.2 points per minute of opponent possession time in Week 2 in roughly the same opponent time of possession. Against good opponents this defense may really struggle. Something to keep an eye on.

Offense Trending UP

Detroit Lions

Maybe the biggest Night and Day week to week turnaround in the league through the first two weeks. In Week 1 they averaged 0.4 points per minute of possession time, less than half a point scored for every minute they had the ball. In Week 2 they averaged 1.7 points for every minute they held the ball. A 1.3 point turnaround. So the question remains: Which Lions should we expect? Answer: Probably neither.

Offense Trending Down

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were almost the exact opposite. After a 1 point per minute of possession time performance in Week 1, they fell back by nearly 0.75 points per minute in Week 2 to averaging a measly 0.26 points per minute of possession time. They were the epitome of the error of Week 1 hot takes.

Defense Trending UP

Detroit Lions

The Lions had the only defense in the division to get better from Week 1 to Week 2. In Week 1 they allowed over 1 point per minute of opponent possession time. In Week 2 against the Bears the scaled that back by almost a half a point to 0.7 points per minute allowed during the time their opponents had the ball.

Defense Trending DOWN

Chicago Bears

The Bears have had a rough start defensively. Not sure how much of that is to blame on new coach Ben Johnson and how much to blame new coach Matt Eberflus who routinely had one of the worst defenses in football during his tenure. It takes time to make change. But getting worse and giving up 52 points to the Lions isn’t going to make anyone feel better.

Offense Trending UP

Denver Broncos

I have Bo Nix on my fantasy team, so when the offense only put up 0.6 points per minute of possession, I was a bit worried. But their 0.4 point jump to 1 point per minute of possession in Week 2 is certainly encouraging.

Offense Trending Down

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders looked great in Week 1, and everyone was aboard the Geno train. Then Week 2 came and they averaged 0.28 points per minute of possession time. That’s a far cry from the 0.7 points they put up in Week 1. We should be on the look out for a middling year in Petey’s return to the sideline.

Defense Trending UP

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers had the biggest turnaround in the West between Weeks 1 and 2. After giving up 0.8 points per minute of opponent possession time in Week 1, they improved to only allowing 0.28 points per minute of possession time in Week 2. The Chargers look ready to make a run, and having a stout defense who gets off the field will compliment that team well.

Defense Trending DOWN

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have the dubious honor of the hottest trending offense in the division, with the defense cooling off the most. After a Week 1 performance that saw them allow less than half a point at 0.4, they more than doubled that in Week 2 and allowed 0.9 points per minute of possession time to the surprisingly 2-0 Colts.

Offense Trending UP

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams looked rough on offense in Week 1, averaging only half a point per minute of possession time. In Week 2 that more than doubled to 1.1 points per minute of possession time. Look for the Rams to be a player late in the season.

Offense Trending Down

None

Astonishingly, every team in the division saw an improvement from Week 1 to Week 2. The 49ers and Cardinals each saw a 0.4 point per minute of possession time improvement. The Seahawks saw a 0.2 point per minute improvement. This has the chance to be a really fun division top to bottom all the way through the season.

Defense Trending UP

None

Likewise, the division did not have a single team that got better in terms of allowing points per minute of opponent possession time. Every team saw a worsening from Week 1 to Week 2.

Defense Trending DOWN

Los Angeles Rams

Of the teams that got worse, the Rams saw the biggest declination by just over 0.3 points per minute of opponent possession time, going from 0.29 in Week 1 to 0.6 in Week 2.

Offense Trending UP

Houston Texans

You probaly expected to see the Colts here. But both they and the Jaguars stayed the same from Week 1 to Week 2 in terms of scoring behavior rate. The Colts surely have the most impressive scoring offense in the division, averaging 0.9 points per minute in each of the last two weeks, but it is the Texans who had the most growth Week 1 to Week 2, going from 0.28 points per minute of possession time, 0.8 in Week 2.

Offense Trending Down

Jacksonville Jaguars

When rounding, the Jags stayed the same at around 0.8 points per minute of possession time. But technically, they got just a little worse from 0.8 to 0.795 points per minute of possession time.

Defense Trending UP

Houston Texans

Every team in this division got worse except the Texans who stayed the same at an impressive 0.5 points per minute allowed to each of their opponents. The Texans track to have a stout defense this season, and they’ll need it.

Defense Trending DOWN

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags also had the worst degradation of defensive score prevention in the division from Week 1 to Week 2. They allowed only 0.3 points per minute of opponent possession time in Week 1. That ballooned to 1.2 in Week 2, almost a full point more.

Offense Trending UP

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers saw the most growth from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFC South. They went from 0.3 to 0.7 points per minute of possession time. They started slow last year, but if they can get going faster this year, they may play the role of disruptor this season.

Offense Trending Down

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs were the only team in the division to get worse from Week 1 to Week 2. They went from a robust 0.9 points scored per minute of possession time, to 0.5, a drop of 0.4. If Mayfield can keep playing hero they can overcome droughts like Week 2’s performance.

Defense Trending UP

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons saw the best week to week improvement in Score Prevention Behavior Rate, going from allowing nearly a point per minute of opponent possession time in Week 1, to just a quarter of a point per minute of opponent possession time in Week 2. If they can replicate more Week 2 defensive performances, their ball control style of offense may pay off, but it is a delicate balance.

Defense Trending DOWN

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs had the biggest downslide in Score Prevention Behavior Rate, but not terribly. They slid from 0.6 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, to 0.8 points allowed. 0.8 is high and no team has won a playoff game since we started tracking SPBx. Defense was an issue for them last season, and they likely won’t survive it if it is also one this season.