🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Playoff Push
Cowboys stay alive? Patriots take back the East for good? Panthers playoff bound?

Behavior Analysis

• Cowboys O vs. Vikings D (SBx ↔ SPBx). Dallas’ projected SBx remains one of the steadier profiles on our chart and carries enough week-ahead celeration to sustain 2–3 quality scoring drives plus auxiliary points. Minnesota’s SPBx baseline is competitive, but its bounce band leaves more room for stalled red-zone stands one week and quick leaks the next—our median favors Dallas to the mid-to-upper 20s.

• Vikings O vs. Cowboys D. Minnesota’s SBx projection sits closer to league middle with more outcome spread from bounce; Dallas’ SPBx has tightened as the season’s progressed (narrower volatility), converting a chunk of Vikings’ longer series into field-goal attempts. That keeps Minnesota clustered around ~19–21 unless they spike at the top of their envelope.

• Time of possession (BPB ↔ BPPB). The possession blend tilts slightly toward Dallas—not a landslide, but a few additional snaps at these SBx rates is worth a couple of points. That ToP edge, plus Dallas’ lower defensive bounce, supports a one-score Cowboys lead most of the way.

• Range of outcomes. With bounce folded in, our 70% band looks like DAL scores between 24–30 70% of the time, MIN scores between 17–21 70% of the time, and the 90% band stays mostly within two scores. Centering that, we grade the matchup Cowboys ~27, Vikings ~20 (≈47 total).

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Vikings @ Cowboys

Betting guide (PASS/TAKE)

Moneyline

• Cowboys -280 — TAKE (parlay/small straight). Our median and volatility profile back Dallas.

• Vikings +225 — PASS. Price not enough to fight our lean.

Spread

• Cowboys -5.5 (-115) — TAKE. Model margin ≈ 7; aligns with our DAL 27–20 center.

• Vikings +5.5 (-105) — PASS.

Total 47.5 (-113/-107)

• UNDER 47.5 — LEAN/TAKE (small). Our midpoint is ~47 with more paths to stalled drives than explosives; if juice climbs, reduce stake.

Team Totals

• Vikings 20.5 (-113/-118) — TAKE UNDER 20.5. Dallas’ SPBx + shorter MIN possessions keep the median ~20.

• Cowboys 27.5 (-105/-127) — PASS / tiny lean UNDER. Our point is 27; number is efficient and juice is heavy on Under.

Field Goals

• Total FGs 3.5 (-107/-121) — TAKE OVER 3.5 (-107). “Bend-don’t-break” tendencies on both sides make 4 makes common.

• Cowboys FGs 1.5 (-145/+110) — LEAN OVER (pricey; better for SGPs).

• Vikings FGs 1.5 (-118/-113) — TAKE OVER 1.5. Vikings’ likely scoring path is 1 TD + 2 FGs more often than 3 TDs.

Winning Margins

• Cowboys 1–6 (+255) — TAKE (sprinkle). Fits our primary envelope.

• Cowboys 7–12 (+390) — SMALL SPRINKLE. Secondary mode around a 7–10 finish.

• Cowboys < 13 (+116) — TAKE. Correlates with our one-score/two-score-max script.

Behavioral Analysis

1. Steelers O vs. Dolphins D (SBx ↔ SPBx). Pittsburgh’s scoring rate (SBx) projects to the low-20s once we blend it with Miami’s prevention (SPBx). The key tell is volatility: the Steelers’ week-ahead band is relatively tight (lower bounce) while Miami’s prevention shows a little more spread. That profile yields drives that finish, but not a shootout—think a couple of touchdowns plus kicks.

2. Dolphins O vs. Steelers D. Miami’s projected SBx has more bounce (week-to-week swing) and runs right into a Steelers SPBx that’s one of their most stable phases. That stability converts a chunk of Miami’s movement into field-goal tries or punts. Median lands Miami just under 20 unless they hit the top of their envelope.

3. Time of possession (BPB ↔ BPPB). The ball-control blend tilts slightly toward Pittsburgh—not by a mile, but enough snaps to matter at these scoring rates. At ~0.5–0.7 points per extra minute of possession in this matchup, that ToP edge is the difference between 17–17 and Steelers nudging ahead.

4. Range & center. With bounce folded in, our 70% band looks like PIT 19–23, MIA 16–20 (total mid-30s to ~40). Centering that gives a modest, defense-and-kicking script: Steelers ~21, Dolphins ~17.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Dolphins @ Steelers

Betting guide (PASS/TAKE)

Moneyline

• Steelers -173 — TAKE (modest or parlay anchor). Our median favors PIT and volatility is friendly.

• Dolphins +145 — PASS. Price not rich enough to fight the lean.

Spread

• Steelers -3 (-113) — TAKE (light). Projects to a one-score PIT win; -3 matches our 21–17 center.

• Dolphins +3 (-107) — PASS.

Total (42.5, -106/-114)

• UNDER 42.5 — TAKE. Our range clusters below this; FG-heavy script.

Team Totals

• Steelers 22.5 (-125/-107) — TAKE UNDER 22.5 (-107). Median ~21; prefer the cheaper Under side.

• Dolphins 19.5 (-122/-109) — TAKE UNDER 19.5 (-109). We sit ~17 with red-zone friction.

Field Goals

• Game FGs 3.5 (-125/-105) — TAKE OVER 3.5 (-125). Bend-don’t-break on both sides makes 4 common.

• Steelers FGs 1.5 (-114/-117) — TAKE OVER 1.5. Fits PIT’s low-20s via 2+ makes.

• Dolphins FGs 1.5 (-102/-132) — LEAN OVER 1.5 (-102). Price is friendly; volatility means attempts should be there.

Winning Margins

• Dolphins 1–6 (+320), 7–12 (+675), <13 (+184) — PASS. These contradict our PIT-lean envelope.

SGP ideas that fit the script

• Steelers -2.5 (alt) + Under 44.5 (alt) + Over 3.5 FGs + Steelers Over 1.5 FGs.

• Add if offered: Either team to win by 1–13 (Yes) or First score = FG for more correlation.

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