🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Playoff Push
Do the Bears cement their place at the top? Can Buffalo avoid a let down? Are the Chiefs…finished?

Behavior Analysis

• Texans offense vs. Chiefs defense. Houston’s SBx (points per minute) projects into the low 20s after we apply their week-over-week trend (celeration) and blend it against Kansas City’s SPBx. The key is consistency: Houston’s scoring envelope is reasonably tight (lower bounce) while KC’s prevention isn’t suffocating. That combination creates steady red-zone visits—even if some end in 3s rather than 7s.

• Chiefs offense vs. Texans defense. Kansas City’s SBx is still efficient, but the next-week projection softens a bit when we respect recent trend (slower celeration) and Houston’s SPBx which has been tightening with a smaller bounce range. Practically, that means more Chiefs drives stalling around the fringe of the red zone (FGs, a punt or two) instead of their classic multi-TD avalanche.

• Time of possession (BPB/BPPB). Blending BPB (how well you hold the ball) with the opponent’s BPPB (how well they kick you off the field) yields near-even possession, with a slight nudge to Houston because their prevention creates longer fields for KC and shorter, repeatable series for themselves. At these scoring rates, even 30–60 seconds of extra ball can swing a point.

• What the ranges look like. Using each side’s bounce as the volatility envelope, the 70% band clusters in the low-40s total with a 1–4 point Texans advantage; the 90% band still hugs a one-score game either way. That shape fits a 22–20outcome very well: methodical, FG-friendly, and decided late.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Texans @ Chiefs

Moneyline

• Texans +170 — TAKE (small plus-money position). Our median favors HOU by a hair; the price is fair for a sprinkle.

• Chiefs -210 — PASS. Too rich for a coin-flip-ish script.

Spread (Chiefs -4 / Texans +4)

• Texans +4 (-112) — TAKE. We project Texans by ~2; +4 catches multiple common finals (1–3 pt).

• Chiefs -4 (-108) — PASS.

Total (41.5, -114/-106)

• PASS / tiny lean OVER 41.5. Our center is ~42, but the price favors the Under side (-106). Because the profile is FG-heavy (and one stalled drive flips it), I’d list the full-game total as pass unless you can get Over 41 (-110 or better).

Team Totals

• Texans 19.5 (-107/-127) — TAKE OVER 19.5 (-107). Median ~22 with a reasonably tight envelope.

• Chiefs 23.5 (-112/-120) — TAKE UNDER 23.5 (-120). Prevention/trend blend points to ~20 and a higher FG share.

Field Goals

• Total FGs 3.5 (-102/-125) — TAKE OVER 3.5 (-102). Script favors 4–5 combined (both defenses bend).

• Texans FGs 1.5 (-122/-111) — TAKE OVER 1.5 (-122). Sustained but not explosive drives = 2 makes often.

• Chiefs FGs 1.5 (-137/+102) — LEAN OVER 1.5 (pricey). Same reasoning, but cost is heavier—reduce stake or skip if you already took game FG Over.

Optional adds (if your book offers them)

• Winning margin: Texans by 1–6 — matches our envelope.

• Either team to win by 1–13: Yes — covers the band we expect.

• First scoring play: FG — fits the early “bend-don’t-break” read.

Behavioral Analysis

• Eagles O vs. Chargers D (SBx ↔ SPBx). Philly’s projected SBx is trending down and carries a wider bounce(more week-to-week swing). The Chargers’ SPBx is the steadier unit in this matchup, which converts more Eagles drives into field goals or punts. That’s how you get a 14–17 type ceiling for Philly unless they hit the top of their bounce envelope.

• Chargers O vs. Eagles D. LAC’s projected SBx isn’t explosive, but its bounce is tighter. Against an Eagles SPBx that bends but doesn’t break, the Chargers accumulate enough “small wins” (first downs, clock) to reach the high teens/around 20.

• Time of possession (BPB ↔ BPPB). Blending ball-keep vs. ball-prevent gives the Chargers a slight ToP edge—think minutes, not miles. At these SBx rates, a minute of extra ball is worth close to a point, which is the difference between 17 and 20.

• What the ranges look like. Using bounce to set the bands, the 70% range sits around Chargers 17–23, Eagles 13–17 (total mid-30s to low-40s). That lines up cleanly with 20–14 LAC as the most typical outcome.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Eagles @ Chargers

Moneyline

• Chargers +115 — TAKE (modest). Our median favors LAC; plus money is fair.

• Eagles -137 — PASS. Price doesn’t match our lean.

Spread (2 pts)

• Chargers +2 (-102) — TAKE. We have Chargers winning outright; +2 adds protection.

• Eagles -2 (-118) — PASS.

Total (42, -109/-112)

• UNDER 42 — TAKE. Model center is mid-30s (20–14). Bounce isn’t high enough to push this into the mid-40s often.

Team Totals

• Chargers 20.5 (-102/-132) — LEAN UNDER 20.5 (-132) (price is steep; keep it small). Our point is 20.

• Eagles 21.5 (-114/-118) — TAKE UNDER 21.5. We project ~14; even the 70% band rarely clears 21.

Field Goals

• Game Total FGs 3.5 (+102/-125) — TAKE OVER 3.5 (+102). “Bend-don’t-break” on both sides makes 4 combined makes common.

• Eagles FGs 1.5 (-112/-120) — LEAN OVER 1.5 (-112). Philly’s most likely scoring path here is 2 FGs + 1 TD or 1 FG + 2 TDs; price is okay, stake small.

• Chargers FGs 1.5 (-115/-118) — TAKE OVER 1.5 (-115). LAC’s possession edge with red-zone friction yields 2+ attempts/makes frequently.

Optional adds (if offered)

• Winning margin: Chargers by 1–6 — fits our envelope.

• Either team to win by 1–13: Yes — captures the one-score profile.

• First scoring play: FG — correlates with early stalled drives.

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