The 2023 NFL season is just a few months away. Every one of the 32 NFL teams is hoping to improve upon last season. To move forward, you have to know where you have been. Our future behavior is in large part influenced by our historical behavior. The AFC North is filled with storylines and has three (yes, three) legitimate postseason contenders.

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AFC North Team Reports

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens Offensive Ranking

The Baltimore Ravens offense was not great with Lamar Jackson, twice as worse without.

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means the defense was getting better

  • Trending up means the defense was getting worse.

Ravens Offense Was A Safe Bet With Lamar Jackson: Bounce Rate

The Baltimore Ravens offense had an overall bounce rate of x3, which is in the “Stay Away” zone. Who the quarterback was mattered.

• With Lamar Jackson, the Ravens had a x2.2 bounce rate which is firmly in the “Safe Zone”.

  • x2.2 would have ranked as tied for the third most consistent offense

• Tyler Huntley brought instability with an x3.3 bounce rate, which is firmly in the “Stay Away” zone.

  • x3.3 would have ranked as the 10th most unstable offense in the NFL

Ravens Offense Regressed With Lamar Jackson: Scoring Behavior (SBx) Rate

The Ravens overall SBx was 0.584 points per minute of possession overall:

• With Lamar Jackson for 11 games, their SBx was 0.748.

  • 0.748 would have ranked 10th in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

• With Tyler Huntley for 7 games, their SBx was 0.3960.396 would have ranked last in the NFL if carried out for 17 games.

• While the offense was undoubtedly better with Jackson, they were still regressing at an alarming rate.

  • The Lamar Jackson-led Ravens offense regressed by 24% week over week for 11 games.

  • 24% regression rate would have been the fifth worst regression in the NFL if carried out for 17 games.

Baltimore Ravens Defensive Ranking

The Ravens defense was headed in the wrong direction to start the season They made a mid-season trade that turned their season around and sent them to elite-level status.

Ravens Defense Was A Risky Bet: Bounce Rate

• Overall bounce rate of x3.8 was firmly a “Stay Away” rating according to the Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool.

  • A bounce rate of x3.8 ranked as the eighth most inconsistent in the NFL

Roquan Smith Took The Defense To Another Level: SPBx

The Ravens:

• Had an overall Score Prevention Behavior of 0.563 points allowed per minute of opponent possession, which needs context.

  • While the 0.563 overall SPBx ranked fifth in the NFL, they really improved after acquiring Roquan Smith.

• Prior to the Roquan Smith trade with the Chicago Bears, the Ravens defense had an average SPBx of 0.722 (7 games).

  • 0.722 SPBx would have ranked 10th worst in the NFL

• After the trade, the Ravens defense had an average SPBx of 0.480 (11 games).

  • That was a 33.5% improvement

  • 0.480 would have ranked third best in the NFL

Baltimore Ravens 2023 Outlook

Yes, the Ravens need to find out if Lamar Jackson can run a spread offense at the NFL level, but, they also need him to be available late in the season. He has missed December and January each of the last two seasons.

• With Lamar Jackson:

  • The offense was 89% better than it was without him.

  • However, they were regressing at an alarming rate in an offense tailor made to his skill set.

• Defense is poised to remain elite with a full season of Roquan Smith.

  • Defense was 33.5% better with him than without.
    

The Baltimore Ravens will have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should exercise patience early in a new season as the Ravens are undergoing many environmental changes.

Lamar Jackson will have not played in a game in nine and half months by the time the 2023 season starts. He will also have a new offensive system to learn and adapt to. All the while, the offense will be integrating new pass catchers into the system. Bettors need to give this time before trusting what they see early in the season.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals made another run to the AFC championship game, but were reminded who the kings of the AFC are. Can they make it three in a row in 2023?

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Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Ranking

The Cincinnati Bengals offense was very consistent, but still came up short of their biggest rival.

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means the defense was getting better

  • Trending up means the defense was getting worse.
    

Bengals Offense Was A Safe Bet: Bounce Rate

The Cincinnati Bengals offense had an overall bounce rate of x2.1, which is in the “Safe Bet” zone.

• The Bengals had an x2.1 bounce rate through 18 games.

  • x2.1 ranked tied with four other teams for the second most consistent offense.

• The Bengals offense had one slight outlier.

  • Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0.47 SBx, 20 total points)

  • Only game below 0.5 points per minute of possession.

Bengals Offense Was Top 10, But Far From Number 1: Scoring Behavior (SBx) Rate

The Bengals overall SBx was 0.772 points per minute of possession overall:

• SBx of 0.772 was ranked seventh in the NFL

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are number 1 at 0.935 points per minute of possession.

  • At the Bengals 2022 average TOP (time of possession), that is a difference of 5 points per game.

• The Bengals improved week over week.

  • Over 18 games, the Bengals improved at a rate of 6% week over week

  • 6% improvement rate ranked tied for eighth in the NFL

Cincinnati Bengals Defensive Ranking

The Bengals defense was headed in the wrong direction to start the season. After the bye week, they turned it around to have one of the better defenses in football.

Bengals Defense Was A Safe Bet All Season: Bounce Rate

• Overall bounce rate of x2.3 was firmly a “Safe Bet” rating according to the Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool.

  • A bounce rate of x2.3 ranked as the fourth most consistent in the NFL.

The Defense Changed Course After The Bye Week: SPBx

The bye week seemed to have been the beginning of a turn around for the Bengals defense.

• Prior to the bye week, they were regressing week over week.

  • Had a regression rate of 21% week over week

  • Averaged an SPBx of 0.710 points allowed per minute of opponent possession which would have ranked 10th worst in the NFL

• After the bye week, they improved week over week.

  • Had an improvement rate of 27% week over week

  • Averaged an SPBx of 0.605 points allowed per minute of opponent possession which would have ranked 10th best in the NFL

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Outlook

The Bengals fancy themselves Super Bowl contenders. Two years ago they made the Super Bowl, and last year returned to the AFC championship game.

• The Offense is among the best, but far from the best.

  • Trail Chiefs by about 5 points per game.

• The Defense is among the best, but far from the best.

  • Got much better after the bye week

  • Also played teams with an average SBx rank of 18th
    

The Cincinnati Bengals will have a “Safe Bet” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should feel comfortable with what to expect from the Bengals.

The Bengals had no major environmental changes heading into 2023. On top of that, they finished 2022 as tied for the second safest team to bet on in the NFL. Worth noting, however, the beginning part of a season is when teams are at their least predictable.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns made a huge trade at the start of 2022. Will it start to pay off in 2023?

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Cleveland Browns Offensive Ranking

The Cleveland Browns offense was better off with Jacoby Brissett in 2022.

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means the defense was getting better

  • Trending up means the defense was getting worse.
    

Browns Offense Was A Safe Bet With Brissett: Bounce Rate

The Cleveland Browns offense had an overall bounce rate of x2.7, which is in the “Proceed With Caution” zone. The change to Deshaun Watson made them more unstable.

• Brissett started the first 10 games of the season.

  • The Browns’ bounce rate was x1.9, firmly in the “Safe Bet” zone.

  • x1.9 would have ranked as the second most consistent offense in football if carried out over 17 games.

• Watson started the final 7 games of the season.

  • The Browns’ bounce rate was x3, in the “Stay Away” zone

  • x3 would have ranked 19th if carried out over 17 games.

The Browns Were Worse With Watson: Scoring Behavior (SBx) Rate

The Browns overall SBx was 0.575 points per minute of possession overall:

• SBx of 0.575 was ranked 22nd in the NFL

• During Brissett’s 10 starts the Browns had an SBx of 0.726.

  • 0.726 points per minute of possession would have ranked 13th in the NFL

  • 12 of the top 13 teams in SBx made the playoffs

• During Watson’s 7 starts the Browns had an SBx of 0.412.

  • That is 43.5% regression from Brissett’s starts

  • 0.412 points per minute of possession time would have ranked as the second worst in the NFL

Cleveland Browns Defensive Ranking

The Browns defense was headed in the wrong direction to start the season. After the bye week, they turned it around to have one of the better defenses in football.

Browns Defense Was A Risky Bet: Bounce Rate

• Overall bounce rate of x3.6 was firmly a “Stay Away” rating according to the Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool.

  • A bounce rate of x3.6 ranked 24th for consistency in the NFL

• They had one extreme outlier (defined as being 1.5 SPBx outside of the bounce envelope).

  • Week 15 vs. Baltimore Ravens (0.11 SPBx, 3 points total)

The Defense Changed Course After The Bye Week: Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx)

The bye week seemed to have been the beginning of a turn around for the Browns defense.

• Prior to the bye week, they were averaging an SPBx of 0.850 points per minute of opponent possession.

  • An SPBx of 0.850 would have ranked last in the NFL

• After the bye week, they averaged an SPBx of 0.575 points per minute of opponent possession.

  • An SPBx of 0.575 would have ranked 8th in the NFL

Cleveland Browns 2023 Outlook

The Browns gave up the farm to get Watson. Whether or not that was the right move remains to be seen.

• Early returns on Watson were abysmal.

  • Don’t be fooled by the win-loss record

  • Offense regressed mightily under Watson

• The defense is responsible for the win-loss turn around.

  • Got much better after the bye week

  • Went from the worst defense to finishing as a top 10 defense

The Cleveland Browns will have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should be very wary of this offense at the start of the season.

If the Watson-led Browns could have just come close to the output of the Brissett-led Browns, we may be talking about them coming off of a playoff run. It remains to be seen how Watson will perform in 2023, and bettors should stay clear of them until they can show consistency.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved on to Kenny Pickett. What can we learn from his 2022 stint as the team’s quarterback?

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• Everything in our FREE Newsletter PLUS…

• Final score predictions for every game, every week through the Super Bowl

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Ranking

Pickett Showed promise for the Steelers offense. His continued development could make them a sleeper team in 2023.

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means the defense was getting better

  • Trending up means the defense was getting worse.

With Rookies Comes Instability: Bounce Rate

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense had an overall bounce rate of x3.5, which is in the “Stay Away” zone.

• Mitch Trubisky started the first four games of the season.

  • The Steelers’ bounce rate was x1.7, firmly in the “Safe Bet” zone.

  • x1.7 would have been the most consistent offense in the NFL if carried out for 17 games.

• Pickett started 11 of the next 13 games.

  • The Steelers’ bounce rate was x3.8, firmly in the “Stay Away” zone

  • x3.8 would have ranked as the 7th most inconsistent offense in the NFL if carried out over 17 games.

Pickett Improved With Experience: Scoring Behavior (SBx) Rate

The Steelers overall SBx was 0.517 points per minute of possession overall:

• SBx of 0.517 was ranked 30th in the NFL

• Mitch Trubisky started the first four games

  • The Steelers had an SBx of 0.589

  • 0.589 would have ranked 21st in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

• Kenny Pickett made the next four starts before the bye week

  • The Steelers had an SBx of 0.292

  • 0.292 would have ranked as the worst offense in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

• Kenny Pickett started 7 of 9 games after the bye week

  • The Steelers had an SBx of 0.642

  • 0.642 would have ranked 16th in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

  • 0.642 was a 120% improvement from before the bye week

Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Ranking

The Steelers defense proved that without TJ Watt, they are not nearly as effective.

Steelers Defense Was A Risky Bet: Bounce Rate

• Overall bounce rate of x2.6 was firmly a “Proceed With Caution” rating according to the Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool.

  • A bounce rate of x2.6 ranked tied for 7th for consistency in the NFL

The Defense Needed TJ Watt: Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx)

Not having TJ Watt mattered for defensive success.

• Prior to TJ Watt’s return, the defense was regressing week over week

  • Steelers’ defense had a regression rate of 39% week over week

  • 39% regression rate would have been the worst in the league

• After TJ Watt’s return, the defense improved week over week.

  • Steelers’ defense had an improvement rate of 17% week over week

  • 17% improvement rate would ranked as the fourth best improvement rate in the NFL

• Prior to TJ Watt’s return, the defense had an average SPBx of 0.766

  • 0.766 points allowed per minute of opponent possession would have ranked 5th worst in the NFL

• After TJ Watt’s return, the defense had an average SPBx of 0.547

  • 0.547 points allowed per minute of opponent possession would have ranked 5th best in the NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Outlook

The Steelers could be a sleeper team in 2023.

• If Pickett continues to develop, the offense could be playoff worthy

  • Steelers offense got better by 44% week over week in Pickett’s 11 starts

• If TJ Watt stays healthy, the defense remains one of the NFL’s elite units

  • With him, the Steelers defense was a top five unit
    

The Pittsburgh Steelers will have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Sports bettors should be very wary of this offense at the start of the season.

While we may think Pickett can help the offense, he was very inconsistent. Sports bettors should bet on consistency, not just performance. Early in the season, bettors should monitor his consistency before betting on this team as a whole.

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