4-Down Territory: 🎥 WIlson In Pittsburgh And Why It Matters

The 4️⃣ Most Important Things You Need To Know About The NFL Today:

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1st Down: The Numbers for Russ and The Steelers

The Denver Broncos are paying Russell Wilson to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024. Below in 4th down, I have a robust conversation with Cody Roark of Mile High Sports, who spent all year in the Broncos locker room with Wilson and his teammates covering the team.

Here’s a clip of what to expect:

A few of the things we discussed from the Football Behavior Analytics

• The Steelers ranked 17th in Total Team Behavior Score

  • 24th in Margin For Error

  • 27th in Scoring Behavior Rate
    

• The Broncos ranked 12th in Total Team Behavior Score

  • 13th in Scoring Behavior Rate
    

• If the Steelers had the Broncos offense with their own defense, their rankings would have been:

  • 11th in Total Team Behavior Score (+6)

  • 13th in Margin For Error (+11)

Full video below in 4th down, including some scoopage on Hackett’s inability to put a game plan together (👀), and what is said about Wilson inside the Broncos locker room…

2nd Down: Why Are Guards Getting The Bag?

“It’s The Environment, Stupid”

For ever, and no thanks to movies like The Blindside, offensive tackles have been the belle of the ball on the offenisve line. Left Tackle is even cited often as one of the four pillar positions along with QB, EDGE, and Corner Back.

Well this offseason, Guards are finally getting their due. Robert Hunt signed a $100 Million deal with the Carolina Panthers, who also signed Damien Lewis to a 4 year, $53 Million contract.

The Patriots prevented Mike Owenu from hitting free agency by signing him to a 3 year, $57 Million contract. The Rams, not to be left out of the market poached Jonah Jackson from Detroit with a 3 year, $51 Million contract.

All four players combined for $161,215,000.00 in total guarantees. All four players are inside the top 10 for biggest contracts given out this offseason, regardless of position.

Why the sudden surge? Why the change in roster building/spending behavior from the teams?

Well (broken record time), environment dictates behavior. Two major changes have occurred in the NFL environment that has had an effect on the league’s behavior towards interior protectors:

1. Lack of supply. This is always a market mover, and we learn in about it in Macro-Econ 101. When demand is high and suupply is low, the price for the existing supply goes UP. These four were the best available on the market, and they cashed in.

2. Interior pass rushers becoming more pronoucned. The other lurking environmental change is the rise of interior defenders who can rush the passer.

Just this year, Chris Jones, Christian Wilkins, and Justin Madubuike each signed massive contract to either stay with their current teams OR with a new team, as is the case with Wilkins. Those three contracts combine for $253,250,000.oo dollars.

Each of those three are now three of the top four highest paid defenisve tackles in the league, joining Aaron Donald who just signed a record breaking contract of his own a year ago.

Each of those three signed a deal for as much or more guaranteed money than the top edge player contract signed this offseason (Brian Burns upon his trade to the New York Giants).

Teams can see the writing on the wall that the fastest path to the quarterback is a straight line, and you better protect it with good players. We shall see if the trend continues.

3rd Down, $ Down: RB’s Lost The Value Battle

It’s over (and it ended with little more than a wimper),

Running Backs Stay In Positional Purgatory

Just a year ago, prominent free agent running backs, including Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, got together and decried the diminishing vlaue being placed on their position by the league and the teams.

Increasingly, they have seen the big money deals become far and few between. Who could blame them. They are the battering rams of the sport and then they are cast aside as soon as its even remotely possible to get out of giving them big money.

At the time, Barkley was in a dispute with the Giants regarding the franchise tag in search of a deal reportedly worth $16 Million annually. The Giants offered him $13 Million. He balked. Franchise tage ensued which had a total worth of roughly $12 Million for the one year.

On the first day of legal tampering (legally doing something illegal makes it legal, I think) for 2024 Free Agency, in what Adam Schefter heralded as the Saquon signed a 3 year contract with $26 Million guaranteed.

That is no where near the $16 Million he wanted a year ago. He compatriot Josh Jacobs?

He signed a 4 year contract with only $12.5 Million guaranteed.

Shoot, Derrick Henry, the subject of our 1st down story, who has been at the top of every major rushing category for years, just signed a 2 year contract with just $9 Million guaranteed.

Nothing changed from a year ago, and in fact, it got worse. Players like Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon were unceremoniously released at a bad time to end up with high-end market deals to make room for Josh Jacobs. Unlikely either tops any of three deals mentioned above.

I don’t believe running backs don’t matter in a vaccuum, but teams are finding ways to do more with less, and the real question is: how does the running back position evolve over time by way of adapting to this cemented and new environment so that they can once again…matter.

Going For It On 4th: Wilson To Steelers Is A Big Deal

Below, I am joined by Mile High Report Analyst Cody Roark to not just discuss the behavioral analytics involved, but to also provide a first hand account from someone who was ACTUALLY IN THE LOCKER ROOM, as to exactly what the Steelers are getting!

Cody also gives us some scoopage as to what the problem was with Hackett, and its embarassing for an NFL head coach…

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