2024 Mid-Season Awards

We are at the midway point of the 2024 NFL season. It is at this point where teams begin to position themselves and stabilize as they make a run for the post season.

Here are the Football Behavior Mid-Season awards in our major behavior analytic categories:

• Scoring Behavior

• Momentum Index

• Consistency Score

• Strength of Schedule

But first, our Thursday Night Football Prediction:

Thursday Night Football, Week 9

The Texans have a real test with now having to play without Stefon Diggs, something we don’t have behavioral data on from this season.

But the Jets are in a bad way coming off a bad loss to the Patriots. Their 24% week over week regression in score prevention behavior should allow Houston to do just enough, especially slated as underdogs.

Mid-Season Team Behavior Awards

Top Scoring Behavior Offense

The Bills are averaging an outlier adjusted 0.99 points per minute of possession time. The Bills have had one outlier in their 8 games, their week 4 performance against the Baltimore Ravens (10 points in 28:57 of possession time.

What will be interesting is to see if they can maintain it. Currently they are regressing by 17% week over week from the start of the season, but may be leveling off around 0.8 to 0.9 points/min. On top of that, they have faced the second easiest schedule so far this season, according to our Strength of Schedule Score.

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Top Score Prevention Defense

The Broncos have been nothing short of elite on the defensive side of the ball. All analytics are outlier-adjusted, except, they haven’t had any outliers. Through 8 games, with all 8 games included, they are holding opponents to an average of 0.439 points per minute of opponent possession time.

That is absurd and would by FAR, make them the best defense of the last three years at least if they hold on to that. They are experiencing a nominal regression rate of 6% week over week, but even that would put them on pace to finish as the top defensive in years.

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Most Improved Scoring Behavior Offense

The first three games of the season were out of character from what we’ve come to expect from this Ben Johnson led offense. But they have been on a tear, improving week over week by 110% since the start of the season, with each of their last four games OVER 1 point per minute of possession time.

That improvement rate will level off at some point, but half way through the season the Lions have catapulted themselves to the front of the Super Bowl Contender talk.

5 Most Improved Scoring Behavior Offenses

Most Improved Score Prevention Defense

In 2023, the Commanders finished with the WORST score prevention defense in the NFL, allowing 0.901 points per minute of possession time. Through the first three games of the 2024 season, it wasn’t looking much better.

But since, they have been on a remarkable 50% week over week improvement rate that has them ranked 12th in the NFL. It is clear Dan Quinn’s system is getting picked dup by the players, and that should aid them as the push for a post season berth.

5 Most Improved Score Prevention Defenses

Most Improved Team Overall

In addition to the fact that their offense is most improved in 2024, their defense is is the fourth most improved week over week overall. Because they have that distinction their team is improving simultaneously on both sides of the ball.

This gives them a whopping 179% improvement rate as a team, which as we said above, will eventually level out. But it is setting them up for prime playoff contention.

Top 5 Most Improved Teams

Most Consistent Offense

Again, all analytics are outlier-adjusted, and the Texans have had two extreme outliers (Weeks 3 & 6) . But their other six games have all been right at 0.7 points per minute of possession time.

Their offense remains among the most predictable. But they will take on the second half of the season with a major environmental shift as Stefon Diggs is out for the season. We will see what that means for their remarkable consistency.

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

Most Consistent Defense

Consistency is good, unless you're consistently bad. And unfortunately for the Ravens, that has been the case. The have the second worst Score prevention defense, with 7 of their 8 games being at or above 0.9 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.

Only the Carolina Panthers have been worse. The Ravens have had one outlier (allowing 10 points to the Bills, but even with that game added in they would be the second worst in football. Ravens fans should hop they become LESS consistent.

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

Toughest Schedule Faced

The Texans have faced the toughest schedule of any team so far in 2024, based on our strength of schedule score which averages the Margin For Error score of every team faced so far by every team this season. A score of 44.3875 would rank as the 10th best MOE in the NFL this season.

That they have done that have a 6-2 record sitting atop their division is mighty impressive, and should the schedule lighten, emboldens the likelihood of them being a late postseason contender.

Top 5 Toughest Schedules Faced

Most Impressive Team

This is direct from our power ranking metric which is Strength of Schedule weighted Margin For Error Score for every team, which combines their own Margin For Error with the strength of schedule they have faced.

The Lions have faced only the 23rd toughest schedule, the equivalent of the NFL’s 19th best team, but they combine that with they themselves holding the second best Margin for Error Score in the NFL.

They are beating the lesser teams that they should, and beating the top teams like Minnesota and Tampa Bay when they face them.

Top 5 Power Rankings

Important note: Power Rankings are a snap shot in time, and these based purely on behavior. Record is not accounted for. For example, Tampa Bay has experienced what could be catastrophic injuries that could derail their season. That has not been reflected here because there is no behavioral data yet. This could look very different in Week 17.

It also helps us identify sleeper teams like Denver and Indianapolis. Despite the turmoil at QB, the Colts have been quite good behaviorally. We actually think the move to Flacco makes them a better team. Can they remain? Time will tell.

Full 32 Team Rankings in Every Category

Every category with every team ranked. These analytics are the only data we consider when making our game predictions, and our official Bets. Over three years, we have hit on 64% of our bets, through Week 8 of this 2024 NFL season.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

Color 🔑:

• BLUE: ELITE

• GREEN: Above Average to Good

• RED: Below Average to BAD*

  • With the exception of celeration rates*

  • The are colored red if deemed unsustainable

Scoring Behavior Rankings

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