2023-2024 Divisional Round Predictions

If You’re Short On Time 🕰️

• Packers Defense may be the root of their down fall, leading to 49ers win

  • We bet…

    • 49ers Alt Spread -6.5

    • 49ers UNDER 32.5 points

    • Packers OVER 18.5 points

• Bills Offense regressing since Dorsey firing, defense improving

  • We bet…

    • Chiefs +3

    • Chiefs ML

    • Chiefs OVER 20.5

    • Bills UNDER 22.5

  • Full analysis below for everyone

  • Analytics for other two divisional games available below for Premium Subscribers

Divisional Round Predictions

After a profitable wild card round for our prediction model, we’re back at it this week with the latest behavioral data for the divisional round games.

Primetime Games

Packers vs. 49ers

Behavioral Tell: Packers Defense

The Packers defense has to be the biggest X-Factor in this game. They were extremely consistent this season with a x2.1 bounce rate. However, that consistency came with consistent regression at 11% week to week decaying of their score prevention behavior rate.

That bounce rate, and celeration rate, excludes their only “extreme outlier”, when they gave up 9 points in over 28 minutes in the last game of the season to the Bears. They are projected to surrender a scoring behavior rate of just under 0.9 points BEFORE accounting for environment.

The problem there, is that the 49ers are are projected on their own to score over 0.9 points per minute. So when you do account for environment, that SPBx goes even higher. They allowed 22 points in the second half to the Cowboys, 16 of them in the final quarter.

Yes, they took their foot off of the gas during perceiving the game to be over, but they literally almost allowed Dallas right back in, forcing Packers coaches to put the offensive starters back in. They will not have that luxury against the 49ers.

Score Projection: Geometric Means

• Packers 20.57

• 49ers 27.19 (W)

Projected Spread

• 49ers -5.5

Non-Environmental Scores

• Non-Environmental Packers Outcome

  • 25-24 Loss

• Non-Environmental 49ers Outcome

  • 29-17 Win

How We Bet (Placed 1/15/2024)

• 49ers Alt Spread -6.5 (-180)

• 49ers UNDER 32.5 (-160)

• Packers OVER 18.5 (-145)

Risk Report (Outlier Adjusted)

• Packers Offense (x2.2) vs. 49ers Defense (x2.4)

• Relatively Predictable

Chiefs vs. Bills

Behavioral Tell: Bills Offense

The Bills offense saw a dramatic shakeup in their environment when they fired Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey following game number nine. Many in the media have used that to say the Bills offense has turned the corner since. But the reality of their behavior does not match that narrative.

Prior to firing Dorsey, the Bills were seeing 12% week to week growth in the celeration rate for their scoring behavior (SBx). They were averaging 0.775 points per minute of possession time. They went 5-4.

After firing Dorsey, they have seen a 5% drop in their average to 0.744 SBx. Not a huge number, but what is a big difference is their week to week progression since firing Dorsey. They are seeing 17% week to week decaying of their scoring behavior. They went 6-2.

So if their offense has gotten worse in terms of scoring behavior, what explains the difference in record pre- and post-Dorsey?

Two key things:

1. Time of possession. The offense is possessing the ball on average 15% longer than they were before Dorsey. So even though they are seeing a 5% dip in their average scoring behavior rate, with a sizable week to week regression, it is being offset by possessing the ball longer.

2. Defensive improvement. Before Dorsey was fired, the Bills were seeing their score prevention behavior (SPBx) regress 15% week to week. That regression has slowed considerable to just 4%. They too have seen a huge improvement in their ability to get off the field, allowing opponents to possess the ball 6% less since Dorsey was fired.

Now, no one is claiming Dorsey being fired has somehow improved the defense. But in terms of timing and why the Bills have not been negatively impacted by their offensive regression since Dorsey was fired, allowing that regression to go largely unnoticed, is because the defensive improvement is helping them win games, coincidentally at the same time.

Now, facing the Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers and Steelers in your last four games certainly help your defense. The Chiefs, however, are a different animal, especially in the playoffs.

Score Projection: Geometric Means

• Chiefs 20.97 (W)

• Bills 16.49

Projected Spread

• Chiefs -4.5

Non-Environmental Scores

• Non-Environmental Chiefs Outcome

  • 25-12 Win

• Non-Environmental Bills Outcome

  • 22-17 Win

How We Bet (Placed 1/15/2024)

• Chiefs +3 (-110)

• Chiefs ML (+125)

• Chiefs OVER 20.5 (-140)

• Bills UNDER 22.5 (+120)

Risk Report (Outlier Adjusted)

• Bills Offense (x2.2) & Bills Defense (x2.7)

• Proceed With Caution

Non-Primetime Games

Texans vs Ravens

Score Projection: Geometric Means

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.